Four-way Stop Syndrome
Today in my office, my supervisor came out and asked everyone to answer the phones (any phone) if they ring. I replied that that means that if a call comes in, all of us will answer. That will cause mass confusion, and the more people in the office, the greater that confusion will be. The problem was that phones weren't being answered. I call this Four-Way Stop Syndrome, because it reminds me of that horrendous traffic situation, the intersection with stop signs on all four ways. I don't know why they put these up. Four-way Stops can cause accidents. Car A arrives at the intersection and stops. Car B, from a different direction, comes to the intersection and stops. A waits for B to cross. B waits for A to cross. A, not seeing B cross, figures that B has yielded to him and therefore he can cross. B, at the same time, figures that A has yielded to him and therefore he can cross. A crosses. B crosses. Crash. To me the solution is the ordinary two-way stop sign. Select some way to be the one with the right of way, usually the way with more traffic. Then put stop signs on the other way. The people stopping at the stop sign then will yield until there is no cross traffic, and then will cross. There will be no confusion about whether we can go, because the sign directs that. In the case of the phones, a priority order needs to be put on the phones, so that everyone knows exactly who is supposed to answer which phone. So if you are thinking of making an intersection a four-way stop, don't. Yield the right of way to one side or the other.
A Journey through Blogrealm
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2003/05/06
Roly-Poly: Chopin's Prelude in G Major
Most pieces have a running line of notes or an arpeggio in the melody and chords in the bass. Not in this inverted prelude, Chopin's Prelude in G Major, Opus 28, Number 3. This one has a rolling series of sixteenth notes in the bass, and a melody formed as though it were an accompaniment, with an occasional chord. While the bass tires of the piece roll along, the chords ride happily in the jalopy of this rolling piece. The piece reminds me sort of a toy which you turn upside down, and it rights itself. I therefore call it "Roly-Poly". Playing this piece is an effort to learn the fingering in the bass so you can roll it off your fingertips without stumbling. It is a happy tune, a little like frolicking in the park in the first warm day of spring.
Most pieces have a running line of notes or an arpeggio in the melody and chords in the bass. Not in this inverted prelude, Chopin's Prelude in G Major, Opus 28, Number 3. This one has a rolling series of sixteenth notes in the bass, and a melody formed as though it were an accompaniment, with an occasional chord. While the bass tires of the piece roll along, the chords ride happily in the jalopy of this rolling piece. The piece reminds me sort of a toy which you turn upside down, and it rights itself. I therefore call it "Roly-Poly". Playing this piece is an effort to learn the fingering in the bass so you can roll it off your fingertips without stumbling. It is a happy tune, a little like frolicking in the park in the first warm day of spring.
2003/05/05
Is God a Definite Integral?
I received the book What Number is God? by Rev. Sara Voss, a UU minister and former mathematics professor in the mail from Amazon.com, and read through parts of it. I have not found which number is God, but I did find out why she thinks of God as a definite integral. It's an interesting analogy. First, a brief explanation (with no symbols) of the definite integral. Go to the site
http://fym.la.asu.edu/~fym/mat210_web/lessons/Ch5/5_4/5_4ol.htm
Ignore the symbols and equations on the page, and look at the diagrams. They show a curve, and the question is how to find the area under the curve. You could break the interval down into subintervals, and then construct rectangles to the curve from the intervals. To find the area, add the areas of all these rectangles. That is not the real area, but only an approximation. If you change the intervals or the method of constructing the rectangles, you are going to get a different approximation. The more intervals you take, the closer you get to the curve so what if you keep taking more and more intervals, going indefinitely more and more intervals? You approach the exact area under the curve. This exact area is called the definite integral of the curve. And there are many ways of breaking down the interval to approximate the definite integral.
Rev. Voss sees religion as the same type of phenomenon. There are many ways of approximate God, and we call these religions. Think of each way of breaking the line into intervals and constructing the rectangles as a religion. Each religion has its own way of approximating the area under the curve, which is God. Each religion approximates the Ultimate Truth in its own way, and there are many different ways of dividing the interval to get to the true area under the curve, the Ultimate Truth. In this view, contradictory religions such as Christianity and Islam are merely ways of dividing the interval in ways that don't mesh with each other. One can improve on these methods by subdividing further; for example, one could go from Christ as God to everyone as God - with a little bit of divinity in each of us. But you still would not be at the ultimate curve, the Ultimate Area. There would always be some parts that don't match. This way of thinking about contradictory religions had not occurred to me before. Eventually in approaching the Ultimate, the contradictions fall away and consistency results.
Anyway, this is the way Rev. Sarah Voss thinks of the definite integral as like God. There is one big difference, in my opinion. The Fourth Principle of my religion, Unitarian Universalism, says that we will never be able to get at The Ultimate. But in integral calculus there is a short cut, an end run, if you will, to get at the ultimate area via another concept: the antiderivative, and this is summed up in the Fundamental Theorem of Calculus: the derivative of a definite integral of a function is the original function. So is there a Fundamental Theorem of Religion? Such, I would suppose, would be The Answer, so I don't think it exists. I also find the set of all transfinite ordinal numbers a better model of God than the definite integral. But I still think the concept of God as definite integral as interesting and illuminating, and the book, in my view, is a good read.
I received the book What Number is God? by Rev. Sara Voss, a UU minister and former mathematics professor in the mail from Amazon.com, and read through parts of it. I have not found which number is God, but I did find out why she thinks of God as a definite integral. It's an interesting analogy. First, a brief explanation (with no symbols) of the definite integral. Go to the site
http://fym.la.asu.edu/~fym/mat210_web/lessons/Ch5/5_4/5_4ol.htm
Ignore the symbols and equations on the page, and look at the diagrams. They show a curve, and the question is how to find the area under the curve. You could break the interval down into subintervals, and then construct rectangles to the curve from the intervals. To find the area, add the areas of all these rectangles. That is not the real area, but only an approximation. If you change the intervals or the method of constructing the rectangles, you are going to get a different approximation. The more intervals you take, the closer you get to the curve so what if you keep taking more and more intervals, going indefinitely more and more intervals? You approach the exact area under the curve. This exact area is called the definite integral of the curve. And there are many ways of breaking down the interval to approximate the definite integral.
Rev. Voss sees religion as the same type of phenomenon. There are many ways of approximate God, and we call these religions. Think of each way of breaking the line into intervals and constructing the rectangles as a religion. Each religion has its own way of approximating the area under the curve, which is God. Each religion approximates the Ultimate Truth in its own way, and there are many different ways of dividing the interval to get to the true area under the curve, the Ultimate Truth. In this view, contradictory religions such as Christianity and Islam are merely ways of dividing the interval in ways that don't mesh with each other. One can improve on these methods by subdividing further; for example, one could go from Christ as God to everyone as God - with a little bit of divinity in each of us. But you still would not be at the ultimate curve, the Ultimate Area. There would always be some parts that don't match. This way of thinking about contradictory religions had not occurred to me before. Eventually in approaching the Ultimate, the contradictions fall away and consistency results.
Anyway, this is the way Rev. Sarah Voss thinks of the definite integral as like God. There is one big difference, in my opinion. The Fourth Principle of my religion, Unitarian Universalism, says that we will never be able to get at The Ultimate. But in integral calculus there is a short cut, an end run, if you will, to get at the ultimate area via another concept: the antiderivative, and this is summed up in the Fundamental Theorem of Calculus: the derivative of a definite integral of a function is the original function. So is there a Fundamental Theorem of Religion? Such, I would suppose, would be The Answer, so I don't think it exists. I also find the set of all transfinite ordinal numbers a better model of God than the definite integral. But I still think the concept of God as definite integral as interesting and illuminating, and the book, in my view, is a good read.
The Monster: Chopin's Prelude in A Minor
This piece, Opus 28, Number 2, is decidedly a different piece. It starts ominously with a bass that reminds me of the guards in "Wizard of Oz" coming to get Dorothy. It is a piece for Halloween. It doesn't even start in A Minor, but rather in E Minor. It seems to settle down for a while, then it mutates into B Minor, and then the harmonies get really out of whack, with naturals and sharps in the treble, and a discordant C double-sharp in the bass, even in the same two-note chord with a C natural. It makes one feel really disoriented. It sounds unsettled and growly; then it settles down into the sad harmonies of A minor clashing against a clanging F natural in the treble, and it finally ends with a plaintive solo and a couple of concluding chords. Because the piece is so discordant and dominated by a booming bass, I call it "The Monster". It is relatively easy to learn to play, but the monster steps are a bit of a stretch at times. If you try to play the piece, watch your left hand. It waddles and undulates in an awkward manner, sort of like the monsters coming out of the dungeon. If you really want this to sound scary for Halloween, plug it into a music program such as Cakewalk and set the monster steps for some low-pitched vibrato bass and the melody for something like Chorus Aahs.
This piece, Opus 28, Number 2, is decidedly a different piece. It starts ominously with a bass that reminds me of the guards in "Wizard of Oz" coming to get Dorothy. It is a piece for Halloween. It doesn't even start in A Minor, but rather in E Minor. It seems to settle down for a while, then it mutates into B Minor, and then the harmonies get really out of whack, with naturals and sharps in the treble, and a discordant C double-sharp in the bass, even in the same two-note chord with a C natural. It makes one feel really disoriented. It sounds unsettled and growly; then it settles down into the sad harmonies of A minor clashing against a clanging F natural in the treble, and it finally ends with a plaintive solo and a couple of concluding chords. Because the piece is so discordant and dominated by a booming bass, I call it "The Monster". It is relatively easy to learn to play, but the monster steps are a bit of a stretch at times. If you try to play the piece, watch your left hand. It waddles and undulates in an awkward manner, sort of like the monsters coming out of the dungeon. If you really want this to sound scary for Halloween, plug it into a music program such as Cakewalk and set the monster steps for some low-pitched vibrato bass and the melody for something like Chorus Aahs.
2003/05/04
Chasing Kittens: Chopin's Prelude in C Major
I haven't been posting too frequently to this blog so I came up with a good idea for doing so. As of late I have been playing the preludes of Chopin's Opus 28. These have always intrigued me. I learned how to play several of them when I was a child, and I found out later that there are 24 preludes in this opus, one in each of the 24 major and minor keys. They cover a wide range of motions, although the major ones tend to be tranquil or happy and the minor ones either sad or angry. So what I have decided to do is to review in a series of blogs each of the 24 preludes. Further, I will give these preludes names. Chopin did not name them, and that causes some people to object, since names like "Prelude in C Major" don't say anything about the piece. It allows one to be imaginative in saying what the prelude means to them, and I am going to do that, giving each of these gems a name.
I shall start, then with the Prelude in C Major, Opus 28, Number 1. The piece resembles Bach's Well Tempered Clavichord with its rising arpeggios. But it is faster, with a bouncy 6/8 rhythm, and to me it resembles a bunch of kittens that have somehow escaped from a box or cage and are running all over the place. Hence I call this one "Chasing Kittens". I have tried playing this one myself, and find the stretches somewhat hard to deal with, and it is one of these pieces that can get your arms tired if you play it too often. The piece starts out with some simple C major arpeggios, then goes up in pitch and reaches a peak, then settles down to an alteration between C and F chords to a C bass, a passage which reminds me of finally catching all the kittens and putting them back where they belong. It is a sparkling prelude and it is altogether too short, but it sounds complete when it ends.
I haven't been posting too frequently to this blog so I came up with a good idea for doing so. As of late I have been playing the preludes of Chopin's Opus 28. These have always intrigued me. I learned how to play several of them when I was a child, and I found out later that there are 24 preludes in this opus, one in each of the 24 major and minor keys. They cover a wide range of motions, although the major ones tend to be tranquil or happy and the minor ones either sad or angry. So what I have decided to do is to review in a series of blogs each of the 24 preludes. Further, I will give these preludes names. Chopin did not name them, and that causes some people to object, since names like "Prelude in C Major" don't say anything about the piece. It allows one to be imaginative in saying what the prelude means to them, and I am going to do that, giving each of these gems a name.
I shall start, then with the Prelude in C Major, Opus 28, Number 1. The piece resembles Bach's Well Tempered Clavichord with its rising arpeggios. But it is faster, with a bouncy 6/8 rhythm, and to me it resembles a bunch of kittens that have somehow escaped from a box or cage and are running all over the place. Hence I call this one "Chasing Kittens". I have tried playing this one myself, and find the stretches somewhat hard to deal with, and it is one of these pieces that can get your arms tired if you play it too often. The piece starts out with some simple C major arpeggios, then goes up in pitch and reaches a peak, then settles down to an alteration between C and F chords to a C bass, a passage which reminds me of finally catching all the kittens and putting them back where they belong. It is a sparkling prelude and it is altogether too short, but it sounds complete when it ends.
How to End Cell-Phone Pollution
The latest form of pollution in our society is Cell-Phone Pollution. You hear them everywhere. You are at an important board meeting at work, with some heavy decisions at stake, and then you hear "bitter bitter bitter…" from some phonelet in someone's coat pocket. At a concert where they are playing Tchaikovsky's Pathetique Symphony, the majestic strains of this symphony are broken up by the clanging of Beethoven's "Für Elise" in a tinny tone from a cell phone in the audience somewhere. You are trying to study in a library when a phone breaks the silence with "Danny Boy". And so forth. They are annoying. People request that cell phones be turned off and forbid them in certain public places, but it seems to do no good.
The problem, it seems to me, is that when a person purchases a cell phone, he usually is interested in calling and receiving calls, and not in all the bells and whistles that it has. I call this "Flashing 12:00 syndrome", from the similar phenomenon with VCRs. In other words, the average user does not read the manual and accepts whatever the phone from the box does when it receives a call, and this most often is the usual "bitter bitter bitter" phone ring, although I suspect some phones put in deedle songs such as "Für Elise" as their default. So when someone gets a call while attending a concert, what happens? "Für Elise", that's what. And people get annoyed.
Now there is a vibrate mode, in which the phone vibrates while next to the person. The person feels it and knows there is a call to answer, and it usually doesn't sound too far, so people are not annoyed. Now if everyone would put their phones in vibrate mode, that would end the cell-phone pollution problem. I always put my phone in vibrate mode. I never have it ring or play songs.
But remember that most people don't even think about it and just simply use the default signal, the one that the cell phone companies put in the phones to begin with. So why not make vibrate the default? If cellular phone companies would do that, then 80 or 90% of the people will have their phones in vibrate mode, and most of the cell-phone pollution problem will be eliminated. Now that's up to the phone companies to do that, but if they did, it would help us recover the peaceful atmosphere that we had before the cell-phone pollution became a problem.
Therefore, I urge cell-phone making companies to factory-set their cellular phones to a default of vibrate mode. And then maybe we can hear the movie.
The latest form of pollution in our society is Cell-Phone Pollution. You hear them everywhere. You are at an important board meeting at work, with some heavy decisions at stake, and then you hear "bitter bitter bitter…" from some phonelet in someone's coat pocket. At a concert where they are playing Tchaikovsky's Pathetique Symphony, the majestic strains of this symphony are broken up by the clanging of Beethoven's "Für Elise" in a tinny tone from a cell phone in the audience somewhere. You are trying to study in a library when a phone breaks the silence with "Danny Boy". And so forth. They are annoying. People request that cell phones be turned off and forbid them in certain public places, but it seems to do no good.
The problem, it seems to me, is that when a person purchases a cell phone, he usually is interested in calling and receiving calls, and not in all the bells and whistles that it has. I call this "Flashing 12:00 syndrome", from the similar phenomenon with VCRs. In other words, the average user does not read the manual and accepts whatever the phone from the box does when it receives a call, and this most often is the usual "bitter bitter bitter" phone ring, although I suspect some phones put in deedle songs such as "Für Elise" as their default. So when someone gets a call while attending a concert, what happens? "Für Elise", that's what. And people get annoyed.
Now there is a vibrate mode, in which the phone vibrates while next to the person. The person feels it and knows there is a call to answer, and it usually doesn't sound too far, so people are not annoyed. Now if everyone would put their phones in vibrate mode, that would end the cell-phone pollution problem. I always put my phone in vibrate mode. I never have it ring or play songs.
But remember that most people don't even think about it and just simply use the default signal, the one that the cell phone companies put in the phones to begin with. So why not make vibrate the default? If cellular phone companies would do that, then 80 or 90% of the people will have their phones in vibrate mode, and most of the cell-phone pollution problem will be eliminated. Now that's up to the phone companies to do that, but if they did, it would help us recover the peaceful atmosphere that we had before the cell-phone pollution became a problem.
Therefore, I urge cell-phone making companies to factory-set their cellular phones to a default of vibrate mode. And then maybe we can hear the movie.
2003/05/01
Dobson Syndrome
I am seeking a post-retirement job, so I have been finding ways of rating possible job prospects. I came up with several criteria, two of which are desire and skills. The first describes what I want to do; those jobs dealing with things I am most interested in. The second deals with the knowledge and skills I bring to the job. Which jobs can I do the best. I tried to devise an overall index including these two scales and found them to be so correlated that I am reduced to considering them as a single scale. In other words, I am most interested in what I am best at doing, and vice versa. That seemed logical to me, and it is verified by several job-seeking and self help books I have.
Then I got the word. It is not true. There are people and jobs such that what the person is best at doing is not what the person really wants to do. The example I got this morning is an 87-year-old astronomer named John Dobson. Earlier in his life, he invented the Dobsonian telescope to help bring astronomy to everyone with a simple design. As of late, however, he has been more interested in theories of the universe and in the boundary between science and religion. This means when he gives talks to amateur astronomer groups, he wants to talk about these metaphysical theories, but the astronomers want him to talk about telescope, especially his own design. It is not a happy situation.
And it shows that it is not necessarily true that what you want to do is what you are best at doing. Dobson wants to talk about metaphysics, but he is best at making telescopes. I call this Dobson Syndrome and feel it can hinder you in finding what you really want to do for a living. How can it happen? One guess is that a person changes as he gets older, so what interested him in his younger days does not interest him any more, but he remains skilled in the area. Another is that what you really want to do is not desired by others, so you go into something else that you are skilled at and people appreciate but you don't like to do it.
At this moment the only thing I can say for how to deal with Dobson Syndrome is either to get interested in what you do the best, or get others interested in what you really want to do. This could be hard, and it means that my two scales of desire and skills/knowledge need to be considered separately.
I am seeking a post-retirement job, so I have been finding ways of rating possible job prospects. I came up with several criteria, two of which are desire and skills. The first describes what I want to do; those jobs dealing with things I am most interested in. The second deals with the knowledge and skills I bring to the job. Which jobs can I do the best. I tried to devise an overall index including these two scales and found them to be so correlated that I am reduced to considering them as a single scale. In other words, I am most interested in what I am best at doing, and vice versa. That seemed logical to me, and it is verified by several job-seeking and self help books I have.
Then I got the word. It is not true. There are people and jobs such that what the person is best at doing is not what the person really wants to do. The example I got this morning is an 87-year-old astronomer named John Dobson. Earlier in his life, he invented the Dobsonian telescope to help bring astronomy to everyone with a simple design. As of late, however, he has been more interested in theories of the universe and in the boundary between science and religion. This means when he gives talks to amateur astronomer groups, he wants to talk about these metaphysical theories, but the astronomers want him to talk about telescope, especially his own design. It is not a happy situation.
And it shows that it is not necessarily true that what you want to do is what you are best at doing. Dobson wants to talk about metaphysics, but he is best at making telescopes. I call this Dobson Syndrome and feel it can hinder you in finding what you really want to do for a living. How can it happen? One guess is that a person changes as he gets older, so what interested him in his younger days does not interest him any more, but he remains skilled in the area. Another is that what you really want to do is not desired by others, so you go into something else that you are skilled at and people appreciate but you don't like to do it.
At this moment the only thing I can say for how to deal with Dobson Syndrome is either to get interested in what you do the best, or get others interested in what you really want to do. This could be hard, and it means that my two scales of desire and skills/knowledge need to be considered separately.
A parable
Once upon a time, a woman by the name of Irene Renee Ann Quinton lived miserably with her husband, who was abusive. He would threaten and belittle her and has attacked her on numerous occasions, even in front of her children. But she persisted in living with him despite the abuse. One day, however, a bunch of people, including police, came into the house, arrested her husband and took him away. Then these people proceeded to tell her just how she should live in her house and how she may manage her life. She replied, "I don't need you to tell me how to live my life. Thank you for getting rid of him, but get lost!"
Once upon a time, a woman by the name of Irene Renee Ann Quinton lived miserably with her husband, who was abusive. He would threaten and belittle her and has attacked her on numerous occasions, even in front of her children. But she persisted in living with him despite the abuse. One day, however, a bunch of people, including police, came into the house, arrested her husband and took him away. Then these people proceeded to tell her just how she should live in her house and how she may manage her life. She replied, "I don't need you to tell me how to live my life. Thank you for getting rid of him, but get lost!"
The Plural of Mouse
Here is another Google game. Search for "plural of mouse is *" -mice. If the plural of mouse is not mice, then what is it? The most frequent answer I got from Google's search of Web sites was meeces. A lot of us are still hung up on the old Trixie, Dixie and Jinxie cartoons, as in "I hates those meeces to pieces!". The first answer I got was irregular. Well, yes, mouse does have an irregular plural. I also got mouses. Several sites insist that the plural of a computer mouse is mouses. This is because a computer mouse is not a tiny mammal, the one that cats go for. It may not be, but it certainly got its name from its resemblance to this creature: the eyes on the front, the general shape, and the corded tail. So in my opinion the plural of a computer mouse is mice. Another plural I found was rats. Not one site said that it was meece. A coworker of mine from 15 years ago, who subsequently died in an automobile accident, said in a newsletter that he distributed that the plural of a computer mouse was "mousi". My favorite plural, though, among the plurals that turned up in the search, was mousies. There's a whole bunch of mousies in this housie!
Here is another Google game. Search for "plural of mouse is *" -mice. If the plural of mouse is not mice, then what is it? The most frequent answer I got from Google's search of Web sites was meeces. A lot of us are still hung up on the old Trixie, Dixie and Jinxie cartoons, as in "I hates those meeces to pieces!". The first answer I got was irregular. Well, yes, mouse does have an irregular plural. I also got mouses. Several sites insist that the plural of a computer mouse is mouses. This is because a computer mouse is not a tiny mammal, the one that cats go for. It may not be, but it certainly got its name from its resemblance to this creature: the eyes on the front, the general shape, and the corded tail. So in my opinion the plural of a computer mouse is mice. Another plural I found was rats. Not one site said that it was meece. A coworker of mine from 15 years ago, who subsequently died in an automobile accident, said in a newsletter that he distributed that the plural of a computer mouse was "mousi". My favorite plural, though, among the plurals that turned up in the search, was mousies. There's a whole bunch of mousies in this housie!
2003/04/28
Followup
Some followup on previous blogs. It looks like people are reacting to Madonna's decoy file which snaps "What the f are you doing?" when you click on it to download it. People are hacking her site, among other things. The full story, at least for a while, is on CNN. I don't approve of such actions as hacking her website either. The best way to reply to Madonna's decoys is not to buy her album.
It looks like SARS is being contained. Vietnam, of all countries, has stopped it. Other countries show a decline, and while the number of cases grew 107 per day over the weekend to 5,020, the rate of growth appears to be slowing.
Some followup on previous blogs. It looks like people are reacting to Madonna's decoy file which snaps "What the f are you doing?" when you click on it to download it. People are hacking her site, among other things. The full story, at least for a while, is on CNN. I don't approve of such actions as hacking her website either. The best way to reply to Madonna's decoys is not to buy her album.
It looks like SARS is being contained. Vietnam, of all countries, has stopped it. Other countries show a decline, and while the number of cases grew 107 per day over the weekend to 5,020, the rate of growth appears to be slowing.
2003/04/27
SARS epidemic
Among other things these past few years, we have been confronted with a disease called sudden acute respiratory syndrome (SARS). The action that some people have taken in the world reminds me of the Sliders episode in which the slidonauts wind up in a world overtaken by a disease, and everyone on the streets wears face masks and signs in the restaurant guarantee sterileness and cleanliness. This was a forbidding landscape, and it is lucky that the slidonauts got out OK.
Epidemics have occurred before (such as the AIDS epidemic), but people haven't reacted like this. It is as though people are willing to sacrifice their freedom to protect from a disease. Is this warranted? What are the facts?
So far, SARS has 4,836 cases with 293 deaths, so it kills about 4% of the people it strikes. The symptoms resemble influenza, and in many respects this disease is like influenza. The two start out the same: fever, aches in the joints, and so forth. Recovery usually comes with both diseases, but both are contagious. I graphed the number of cases on Excel and fit an exponential curve to it. I found that on 2004 March 15 if the current growth rate of about 1.1% per day continues, there will be 1,200,000,000 cases, or about the same as the population of China and a significant percentage of the world. I think something is going to intervene by then, because of all the measures taken to control it. Even though it is like influenza, it is caused by a coronavirus, just like the common cold is.
So is this overblown? I say yes. AIDS and Ebola are far more serious threats - they kill everybody (almost) that they infect. This one kills only a small percentage. In future years, they will look back on this epidemic and how we reacted to it, but I feel it will not be as bad as the influenza epidemic of 1918, which killed millions, including my great aunt.
Among other things these past few years, we have been confronted with a disease called sudden acute respiratory syndrome (SARS). The action that some people have taken in the world reminds me of the Sliders episode in which the slidonauts wind up in a world overtaken by a disease, and everyone on the streets wears face masks and signs in the restaurant guarantee sterileness and cleanliness. This was a forbidding landscape, and it is lucky that the slidonauts got out OK.
Epidemics have occurred before (such as the AIDS epidemic), but people haven't reacted like this. It is as though people are willing to sacrifice their freedom to protect from a disease. Is this warranted? What are the facts?
So far, SARS has 4,836 cases with 293 deaths, so it kills about 4% of the people it strikes. The symptoms resemble influenza, and in many respects this disease is like influenza. The two start out the same: fever, aches in the joints, and so forth. Recovery usually comes with both diseases, but both are contagious. I graphed the number of cases on Excel and fit an exponential curve to it. I found that on 2004 March 15 if the current growth rate of about 1.1% per day continues, there will be 1,200,000,000 cases, or about the same as the population of China and a significant percentage of the world. I think something is going to intervene by then, because of all the measures taken to control it. Even though it is like influenza, it is caused by a coronavirus, just like the common cold is.
So is this overblown? I say yes. AIDS and Ebola are far more serious threats - they kill everybody (almost) that they infect. This one kills only a small percentage. In future years, they will look back on this epidemic and how we reacted to it, but I feel it will not be as bad as the influenza epidemic of 1918, which killed millions, including my great aunt.
SUUSI and Mars
It's that time of the year again, when I register to go to the Southeast Unitarian Universalist Summer Institute (or SUUSI). So what am I going to do this year?
I enrolled in a workshop to empower my voice, and I also signed up for contra and swing dancing. I am also going on some nature trips, including one to a swimming place in a river.
I am giving three workshops, on Astronomy, Stories of the Sky, and Weaving Paper Polyhedra (see my SUUSI site for details). This will be the first time I have given Astronomy as a workshop to SUUSI, although I have given it to other organizations. So this should be interesting.
Especially since besides SUUSI, the event of the year is Mars. It will be coming closer than it has for the past 15 years; not only is there an opposition this August, but this occurs when Mars is closest to the Sun (perihelion), and hence to Earth. Mars is going to shine big, red, and blazingly bright in the southern sky on all clear nights at SUUSI. This is a planet which we may have our hopes on, that we may be able to walk on it someday, and find out if, perhaps, there ever was life on Mars. And it will be there in the sky, tantalizing us with hope as we go to SUUSI to the enjoyment that provides. This will be the Martian SUUSI.
It's that time of the year again, when I register to go to the Southeast Unitarian Universalist Summer Institute (or SUUSI). So what am I going to do this year?
I enrolled in a workshop to empower my voice, and I also signed up for contra and swing dancing. I am also going on some nature trips, including one to a swimming place in a river.
I am giving three workshops, on Astronomy, Stories of the Sky, and Weaving Paper Polyhedra (see my SUUSI site for details). This will be the first time I have given Astronomy as a workshop to SUUSI, although I have given it to other organizations. So this should be interesting.
Especially since besides SUUSI, the event of the year is Mars. It will be coming closer than it has for the past 15 years; not only is there an opposition this August, but this occurs when Mars is closest to the Sun (perihelion), and hence to Earth. Mars is going to shine big, red, and blazingly bright in the southern sky on all clear nights at SUUSI. This is a planet which we may have our hopes on, that we may be able to walk on it someday, and find out if, perhaps, there ever was life on Mars. And it will be there in the sky, tantalizing us with hope as we go to SUUSI to the enjoyment that provides. This will be the Martian SUUSI.
2003/04/23
The Georgia Flag
Since 1956, until two years ago, Georgia had a state flag with the Confederate flag embedded in it. Many people, especially African Americans, found this flag offensive. Therefore the Georgia state legislature created a new flag that shows an emblem and a string of five flags below it, starting with the 13-star US flag, ending with the 50-star US flag, and including a Confederate flag as well. The Confederate flag was still on the Georgia Flag but was much less conspicuous.
But this left many people dissatisfied. So they sought to change the flag again, the second change in two years. The new flag is simpler, consisting of a blue left with an emblem on it, and a red, then a white, then a red stripe, with no Confederate flag on it. I thought, this must be the flag that Georgia should adopt, although I would really like to see a peach on that flag. However, one phrase on the white field of the flag to me makes it unacceptable: "In God We Trust". We already have a problem with this phrase on our currency. It should not be there. It is a violation of separation of church and state, and for the same reason, the Georgia flag should not have that motto on it. To me that is almost as unacceptable as the original Confederate-flag-carrying flag. The new flag of Georgia is OK, but first the phrase "In God We Trust" needs to be stricken out.
Since 1956, until two years ago, Georgia had a state flag with the Confederate flag embedded in it. Many people, especially African Americans, found this flag offensive. Therefore the Georgia state legislature created a new flag that shows an emblem and a string of five flags below it, starting with the 13-star US flag, ending with the 50-star US flag, and including a Confederate flag as well. The Confederate flag was still on the Georgia Flag but was much less conspicuous.
But this left many people dissatisfied. So they sought to change the flag again, the second change in two years. The new flag is simpler, consisting of a blue left with an emblem on it, and a red, then a white, then a red stripe, with no Confederate flag on it. I thought, this must be the flag that Georgia should adopt, although I would really like to see a peach on that flag. However, one phrase on the white field of the flag to me makes it unacceptable: "In God We Trust". We already have a problem with this phrase on our currency. It should not be there. It is a violation of separation of church and state, and for the same reason, the Georgia flag should not have that motto on it. To me that is almost as unacceptable as the original Confederate-flag-carrying flag. The new flag of Georgia is OK, but first the phrase "In God We Trust" needs to be stricken out.
April Greer vs Laci Peterson
A young late-pregnant woman disappears. It is a long period of time, a month or more, and no one has seen her. Finally she is found, and her significant other is charged with murder. It is unfortunate when something like this happens; it transfixes the entire metropolitan area when something like this happen. But should it reach national news? I say no. There are hundreds of murders in the USA every year, and to report each on national news would mean that nothing else would get reported. So I feel that these stories should remain local stories.
I have heard of two such instances recently. One was in California, the case of Laci Peterson. The other was in North Carolina, the case of April Greer. Just about everyone in the US has heard of Laci Peterson. Hardly anyone has heard of April Greer. To me the difference is solely due to media hype. The media saw fit to escalate the Laci Peterson story to national proportions, but not the April Greer story, although much the same thing happened in both instances. To me this is a form of deception. The media should report equal cases equally, and this means keeping both April Greer and Laci Peterson as local cases. Laci should never have entered our national news screens.
A young late-pregnant woman disappears. It is a long period of time, a month or more, and no one has seen her. Finally she is found, and her significant other is charged with murder. It is unfortunate when something like this happens; it transfixes the entire metropolitan area when something like this happen. But should it reach national news? I say no. There are hundreds of murders in the USA every year, and to report each on national news would mean that nothing else would get reported. So I feel that these stories should remain local stories.
I have heard of two such instances recently. One was in California, the case of Laci Peterson. The other was in North Carolina, the case of April Greer. Just about everyone in the US has heard of Laci Peterson. Hardly anyone has heard of April Greer. To me the difference is solely due to media hype. The media saw fit to escalate the Laci Peterson story to national proportions, but not the April Greer story, although much the same thing happened in both instances. To me this is a form of deception. The media should report equal cases equally, and this means keeping both April Greer and Laci Peterson as local cases. Laci should never have entered our national news screens.
Madonna's American Life? I say NO!
Madonna Ciccone has been around for about two decades, ever since she started her career with the alluring number Like a Virgin. Since then she has come up with a number of enthusiastic hits, including In the Groove and Holiday. Most recently she came out with an antiwar video and song in an album entitled American Life. The video shows some footage about Bush that she felt might not be good to put out during the recent War on Iraq, but now that that war is over, the album has come to press. I find her antiwar message interesting, especially since it seems to be anti-material instead, coming rather paradoxically from The Material Girl. So will I buy this album?
No. Absolutely not.
No, it is not because of the strange outfits she has worn; for example a bikini wedding gown. No, it is not because of the "trashy" style of music that some has said she produces. Indeed, the music seems commercially driven, and I feel that true from-the-heart music comes from other than the pecuniary motive, but it is not because of that. No, it is not because she has simulated masturbation on stage. This type of liberation is needed. If more people masturbated in Africa instead of having sex, the continent would not be in trouble because of AIDS. No, it is not because the video bashes the Bush administration. The heart of any free democracy is the freedom to criticize those in power. No, it is not because of her lifestyle, either. It is not going to be for any of these things.
The reason I am not going to buy the album is because of her tactics in marketing the album. I heard from a website that she has issued decoy sound files of her songs that instead of playing the songs throws up an obscenity in your face and says something about your copying her music without paying for it; in other words, piracy. This is one type of technique that I will not put up with. No, as long as she is going to resort to tactics like this, then I am [obscenity] not going to buy any of her albums. I know that songwriters need to be paid so they can earn their living, but there are more civil ways of doing it.
Madonna Ciccone has been around for about two decades, ever since she started her career with the alluring number Like a Virgin. Since then she has come up with a number of enthusiastic hits, including In the Groove and Holiday. Most recently she came out with an antiwar video and song in an album entitled American Life. The video shows some footage about Bush that she felt might not be good to put out during the recent War on Iraq, but now that that war is over, the album has come to press. I find her antiwar message interesting, especially since it seems to be anti-material instead, coming rather paradoxically from The Material Girl. So will I buy this album?
No. Absolutely not.
No, it is not because of the strange outfits she has worn; for example a bikini wedding gown. No, it is not because of the "trashy" style of music that some has said she produces. Indeed, the music seems commercially driven, and I feel that true from-the-heart music comes from other than the pecuniary motive, but it is not because of that. No, it is not because she has simulated masturbation on stage. This type of liberation is needed. If more people masturbated in Africa instead of having sex, the continent would not be in trouble because of AIDS. No, it is not because the video bashes the Bush administration. The heart of any free democracy is the freedom to criticize those in power. No, it is not because of her lifestyle, either. It is not going to be for any of these things.
The reason I am not going to buy the album is because of her tactics in marketing the album. I heard from a website that she has issued decoy sound files of her songs that instead of playing the songs throws up an obscenity in your face and says something about your copying her music without paying for it; in other words, piracy. This is one type of technique that I will not put up with. No, as long as she is going to resort to tactics like this, then I am [obscenity] not going to buy any of her albums. I know that songwriters need to be paid so they can earn their living, but there are more civil ways of doing it.
2003/04/21
What's your playing card deck like?
Well first the Iraqi regime was defeated. And Saddam Hussein, Tariq Aziz, and all the others are killed, captured or something else happened to them. Then all at once the news takes a strange twist: we hear that the five of clubs is captured, that the King of clubs may have escaped to Syria and so forth. It's as though we were like Alice in Wonderland, when she challenges a whole card deck that has arisen around her. Well at least Saddam was dealing with a full deck, or so the military with their card deck issued to soldiers would have us believe. Maybe they should have left out the two of clubs.
But this is an interesting idea. Represent a collection of people by playing cards. How about the people in your life? Find four classifications of people and 13 types of people in each classification and you have yourself a card deck. So I tried that. I chose these four categories (determined partially by Maslow's hierarchy): Spades, the necessary and irksome, what has to be done. Hearts, the love in my life. Clubs, those who have helped me to success, and Diamonds, those who have inspired me the most.
For the ranks, I let the ace represent the top person in my life in that category. The King then represents the top man, unless he is the ace, in which case, the second top man. The Queen is then the top woman, unless she's the ace, in which case the second woman. The Jack or Jane then represents the most unusual, fool-like or trickster-like person in my life in that category. The 10 is the person who has enabled me the most in the category, and the 9 is the best teacher (unless they rank higher). I divide my life into 8 acts, so I let the 2-8 represent the top person in that category in that act of my life.
Some examples: the five of diamonds is the person who inspired me the most in my Fifth Act (i.e., when I was around 30). The Queen of Spades is the woman who most represented the necessary things in my life. The 9 of hearts is the woman who has given me the best teaching in love in my life, and so forth. I am not going to tell any of these here, except I will say that the Ace of Spades is my father, who died in 1999; he represents the necessary because he fought in World War II, which needed to be done but I hope it is never repeated again.
So what is your card deck like? Who in your life is part of your deck of living?
Well first the Iraqi regime was defeated. And Saddam Hussein, Tariq Aziz, and all the others are killed, captured or something else happened to them. Then all at once the news takes a strange twist: we hear that the five of clubs is captured, that the King of clubs may have escaped to Syria and so forth. It's as though we were like Alice in Wonderland, when she challenges a whole card deck that has arisen around her. Well at least Saddam was dealing with a full deck, or so the military with their card deck issued to soldiers would have us believe. Maybe they should have left out the two of clubs.
But this is an interesting idea. Represent a collection of people by playing cards. How about the people in your life? Find four classifications of people and 13 types of people in each classification and you have yourself a card deck. So I tried that. I chose these four categories (determined partially by Maslow's hierarchy): Spades, the necessary and irksome, what has to be done. Hearts, the love in my life. Clubs, those who have helped me to success, and Diamonds, those who have inspired me the most.
For the ranks, I let the ace represent the top person in my life in that category. The King then represents the top man, unless he is the ace, in which case, the second top man. The Queen is then the top woman, unless she's the ace, in which case the second woman. The Jack or Jane then represents the most unusual, fool-like or trickster-like person in my life in that category. The 10 is the person who has enabled me the most in the category, and the 9 is the best teacher (unless they rank higher). I divide my life into 8 acts, so I let the 2-8 represent the top person in that category in that act of my life.
Some examples: the five of diamonds is the person who inspired me the most in my Fifth Act (i.e., when I was around 30). The Queen of Spades is the woman who most represented the necessary things in my life. The 9 of hearts is the woman who has given me the best teaching in love in my life, and so forth. I am not going to tell any of these here, except I will say that the Ace of Spades is my father, who died in 1999; he represents the necessary because he fought in World War II, which needed to be done but I hope it is never repeated again.
So what is your card deck like? Who in your life is part of your deck of living?
2003/04/15
Independence Day: April 15
I mentioned in an earlier blog that for an American to declare his true patriotism for his or her nation, we need to celebrate the independence of our nation not on July 4 but on April 15. On July 4 we can fly fireworks and flags, put on red, white, and blue and play patriotic songs while we picnic and go on vacations in the middle of the summer. None of this tests our patriotism for our nation. April 15 does. On that day we turn in our income tax 1040 to the IRS. Are we willing to pay for what our government does? Are we willing to put our patriotism down not in fireworks but in greenbacks? We were so gung ho about attacking Iraq and getting rid of Saddam Hussein. Now comes the hard part. The bill. About $60,000,000,000 to maybe $200,000,000,000 or so, or hundreds of dollars per each of us. It might want us to think twice before doing things like attacking Iraq, setting up a myriad of bureaucratic agencies, or building a missile defense system that depends on 10 million lines of code going right the first time it is used. Sure, we can party on July 4, but when we see what happens on April 15, we may want to do something on another day - the first Tuesday in November. Sometimes patriotism means saving our government a few bucks.
I mentioned in an earlier blog that for an American to declare his true patriotism for his or her nation, we need to celebrate the independence of our nation not on July 4 but on April 15. On July 4 we can fly fireworks and flags, put on red, white, and blue and play patriotic songs while we picnic and go on vacations in the middle of the summer. None of this tests our patriotism for our nation. April 15 does. On that day we turn in our income tax 1040 to the IRS. Are we willing to pay for what our government does? Are we willing to put our patriotism down not in fireworks but in greenbacks? We were so gung ho about attacking Iraq and getting rid of Saddam Hussein. Now comes the hard part. The bill. About $60,000,000,000 to maybe $200,000,000,000 or so, or hundreds of dollars per each of us. It might want us to think twice before doing things like attacking Iraq, setting up a myriad of bureaucratic agencies, or building a missile defense system that depends on 10 million lines of code going right the first time it is used. Sure, we can party on July 4, but when we see what happens on April 15, we may want to do something on another day - the first Tuesday in November. Sometimes patriotism means saving our government a few bucks.
2003/04/09
Did Casper Weinberger predict the War in Iraq?
In the late 1990s I read an interesting book by former US Defense Secretary Casper Weinberger, The Next War. This book is a fascinating look at what war could be like in the future, including wars against Russia, China, and North Korea. But it is the War with Mexico in 2003 that is now of interest. To me it seems the war is occurring! The main difference is that the war is not against Mexico but against Iraq.
According to the Weinberger scenario, in 1999 June, the president of Mexico is assassinated, and Eduardo Francisco Ruiz takes over later that year, and sets up a radical regime in which he denounces Washington and makes numerous policy changes in Mexico's government. Over the next three years, huge waves of immigrants, millions, of them, flee the country into the United States, prompting US officials to call for action. Eventually the Mexicans overrun the US embassy.
The US decides to take action against Mexico, so they pile up troops in neighboring Texas, Arizona, New Mexico and California. Then the US invades, on 2003 April 14, quickly going to Mexico City, where they are greeted with cheers. However, absolutely no sign of the Ruiz regime is present; all the offices are empty. The US then charges into the badlands northwest of Mexico City and encounter a force of Mexicans. A fierce battle with casualties on both sides ensues, and eventually US forces prevail, and a new government is set up with aid from the US military. However, no sign of Ruiz is ever found.
It seems to me that is what is happening in Iraq! The date is even close; 2003 April 14 will probably be the end of the war instead of the beginning, but it is close enough. Like with Mexico in Weinberger's book, US troops quickly invade from a neighboring desert, and walk in mostly unhindered into Baghdad. The terrain is also similar: desert with some big cities. If the rest of the scenario goes according to Weinberger, there will be some fierce fighting in northern Iraq, and eventually the US will prevail, but we may never be able to find any of the senior Iraqi leadership, including Saddam Hussein.
So it seems to me that Weinberger was correct; it is just that he got the country wrong. So maybe a look at his other scenarios may be warranted.
In the late 1990s I read an interesting book by former US Defense Secretary Casper Weinberger, The Next War. This book is a fascinating look at what war could be like in the future, including wars against Russia, China, and North Korea. But it is the War with Mexico in 2003 that is now of interest. To me it seems the war is occurring! The main difference is that the war is not against Mexico but against Iraq.
According to the Weinberger scenario, in 1999 June, the president of Mexico is assassinated, and Eduardo Francisco Ruiz takes over later that year, and sets up a radical regime in which he denounces Washington and makes numerous policy changes in Mexico's government. Over the next three years, huge waves of immigrants, millions, of them, flee the country into the United States, prompting US officials to call for action. Eventually the Mexicans overrun the US embassy.
The US decides to take action against Mexico, so they pile up troops in neighboring Texas, Arizona, New Mexico and California. Then the US invades, on 2003 April 14, quickly going to Mexico City, where they are greeted with cheers. However, absolutely no sign of the Ruiz regime is present; all the offices are empty. The US then charges into the badlands northwest of Mexico City and encounter a force of Mexicans. A fierce battle with casualties on both sides ensues, and eventually US forces prevail, and a new government is set up with aid from the US military. However, no sign of Ruiz is ever found.
It seems to me that is what is happening in Iraq! The date is even close; 2003 April 14 will probably be the end of the war instead of the beginning, but it is close enough. Like with Mexico in Weinberger's book, US troops quickly invade from a neighboring desert, and walk in mostly unhindered into Baghdad. The terrain is also similar: desert with some big cities. If the rest of the scenario goes according to Weinberger, there will be some fierce fighting in northern Iraq, and eventually the US will prevail, but we may never be able to find any of the senior Iraqi leadership, including Saddam Hussein.
So it seems to me that Weinberger was correct; it is just that he got the country wrong. So maybe a look at his other scenarios may be warranted.
2003/04/08
The Fourth Turning
In 1996 William Strauss and Neil Howe wrote a book called the The Fourth Turning, in which the authors find that the four phases of life (childhood, young adulthood, midlife, and elderhood) and the four generational groups (prophet, nomad, hero, adaptive) imply a series of periods or "turnings" of history, which he numbers from First to Fourth. The Fourth Turning is a crisis period in which society is reconstructed. According to the authors, that should begin around 2005. I found an article from them today, however, that suggests that maybe it has already started: http://www.axess.se/english/currentissue/millennial_generation.php. The authors talks mostly about generations but suggests that Planeattack (that is, 9/11) was the catalyst that started this Fourth Turning. So is the crisis upon us?
In 1996 William Strauss and Neil Howe wrote a book called the The Fourth Turning, in which the authors find that the four phases of life (childhood, young adulthood, midlife, and elderhood) and the four generational groups (prophet, nomad, hero, adaptive) imply a series of periods or "turnings" of history, which he numbers from First to Fourth. The Fourth Turning is a crisis period in which society is reconstructed. According to the authors, that should begin around 2005. I found an article from them today, however, that suggests that maybe it has already started: http://www.axess.se/english/currentissue/millennial_generation.php. The authors talks mostly about generations but suggests that Planeattack (that is, 9/11) was the catalyst that started this Fourth Turning. So is the crisis upon us?
Some Interesting Google Searches
Here is a new game. Think of a word and enter just that word into news.google.com, the news google search site. You will get the latest news that has that word. For example, today, entering "dead" yields "Is Saddam dead?" Here are some other ones:
dead: Is Saddam dead?
Baghdad: Allies tighten control over Baghdad.
51st state: Iraq, the 51st state?
kerry: Kerry calls for US regime change.
ill: Illinois. 3rd talks about SARS
war: the endless war.
tulip: The Commonwealth Chess Championship from April 20
I think that "51st state" was the most interesting of these. But be sure if your tulips are in check to get them out of check.
Here is a new game. Think of a word and enter just that word into news.google.com, the news google search site. You will get the latest news that has that word. For example, today, entering "dead" yields "Is Saddam dead?" Here are some other ones:
dead: Is Saddam dead?
Baghdad: Allies tighten control over Baghdad.
51st state: Iraq, the 51st state?
kerry: Kerry calls for US regime change.
ill: Illinois. 3rd talks about SARS
war: the endless war.
tulip: The Commonwealth Chess Championship from April 20
I think that "51st state" was the most interesting of these. But be sure if your tulips are in check to get them out of check.
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