Every once in a while I look at What Really Happened to find alternative stories about current events, things that never appear on ABC, NBC, the Washington Post and so forth. The site claims that it is anti-war and anti-lie. Over and over again, it features articles on the Web that claim that the Bush administration and others have lied to us about what has been going on; they claim to know what really happened. I realize that as I read these stories that there could be as many lies in these sites as there are in our current administration, and the entire site has a subversive, melancholy feel to it; it is definitely depressing.
So I find among the storm on the site a pretty flower, or rather, fawn. Featured on the site is a reference a site called Fawn and Dog . If you want to have your friends and associates go "awww…" and say how cute these creatures are, show them a printout of this site. My wife and the people at my church really liked the three pictures of the dog taking care of the fawn. This to me is a rare find. Not always do you find a Fawn among the Lies.
A Journey through Blogrealm
Blogtrek
Blogtrek
2004/07/11
2004/07/08
Some weather anomalies
I got alarmed a number of days ago when I looked at the Global Forecasting System (GFS) model runs. This weather prediction run goes the farthest of any of them, 16 days, but is not notoriously accurate past about day 7. I was surprised by what I saw. It clearly showed a storm now over Sierra Leone, Africa, moving off the African coast, moving and strengthening across the Atlantic ocean, riding up Puerto Rico to the Bahamas, then crashing into Myrtle Beach, heading to Charlotte, then hooking to the right towards Richmond, on 2004 July 21, Wednesday evening. It then hooks back to the left and hits Washington, DC. In other words, it calls for a hurricane to strike the US East Coast two weeks from now, and I figured it would be called Alex.
I thought, maybe this was a fluke of this run of the GFS. After all, this is two weeks away, and the next run of the model may show something different. So I looked at the 12Z run, one run before this one. That one shows Alex heading straight up the peninsula of Florida, then whipping around to hit Charlotte, finally exiting to sea somewhere near the Outer Banks. So there may be some reality to this one. I looked back one more, and there it nicked the Florida keys and hit Louisiana. The one before that had it turning north out to sea long before it approaches the mainland. Each run seems to get worse as far as the East Coast was concerned.
I am going to SUUSI that week, and so I got concerned that Alex (or Bonnie; a storm is developing southeast of Bermuda) would either strike SUUSI or strike my home.So I looked at subsequent runs. One of these showed it missing the coast and going out to sea, but the last two runs don't show any hurricane much at all; what there is peters out over the open waters of the Atlantic and don't show much motion at all. So much for this storm.
In fact, the weather is going to be great the next few days in central Virginia. Here a local TV station, WWBT-TV, Channel 12, predicts that there will be a chance of storms each day, and showed a 7-day pictorial forecast with a rain symbol on each day of the week. However, the official NOAA forecast, as seen for example on Weather Underground, does not show any rain at all. In fact, after two days, it gets monotonous in predicting partly cloudy with high of 90 and low of 70 each day. One or the other of these two contradictory forecasts is right and one is wrong. We will see the next few days which it is.
Goes to show that weather sometimes plays a fickle tune.
I thought, maybe this was a fluke of this run of the GFS. After all, this is two weeks away, and the next run of the model may show something different. So I looked at the 12Z run, one run before this one. That one shows Alex heading straight up the peninsula of Florida, then whipping around to hit Charlotte, finally exiting to sea somewhere near the Outer Banks. So there may be some reality to this one. I looked back one more, and there it nicked the Florida keys and hit Louisiana. The one before that had it turning north out to sea long before it approaches the mainland. Each run seems to get worse as far as the East Coast was concerned.
I am going to SUUSI that week, and so I got concerned that Alex (or Bonnie; a storm is developing southeast of Bermuda) would either strike SUUSI or strike my home.So I looked at subsequent runs. One of these showed it missing the coast and going out to sea, but the last two runs don't show any hurricane much at all; what there is peters out over the open waters of the Atlantic and don't show much motion at all. So much for this storm.
In fact, the weather is going to be great the next few days in central Virginia. Here a local TV station, WWBT-TV, Channel 12, predicts that there will be a chance of storms each day, and showed a 7-day pictorial forecast with a rain symbol on each day of the week. However, the official NOAA forecast, as seen for example on Weather Underground, does not show any rain at all. In fact, after two days, it gets monotonous in predicting partly cloudy with high of 90 and low of 70 each day. One or the other of these two contradictory forecasts is right and one is wrong. We will see the next few days which it is.
Goes to show that weather sometimes plays a fickle tune.
2004/07/05
Saturn and Titan
1991 was the year for eclipses. 2001 was Meteor Shower Year. 2003 was the Year of Mars, with its close approach and the two Rovers. It looks like now that 2004 will be the Year of Saturn, for the Cassini spacecraft has just arrived.
As usual, it gives its host of interesting images. The rings show up as a set of parallel lines etched in space, closer than we have ever seen them. The biggest interest point for me now is Titan. The probe is not supposed to eject a probe onto the Titanian surface until this (Northern) winter, but already Titan has given us some interesting images. Finally the surface of Titan has been seen! I remember long ago, in 1981 or something, when Pioneer 11 approached Saturn. It was to take a temperature of the cloud tops of Titan, but a Soviet satellite interfered. I immediately printed out a headline: "The Temperature of Titan is Sputnik." Since then astronomers have been wondering about the surface of Titan. It gives a solid orange to optical telescopes. But with an infrared and other cameras and some photo work, pictures showing the features of Titan have just come out; check out the NASA web site, which, by the way, frequently throws 404s in your face. But once in a while you get the site and you can check out the Titan photos.
The surface, like anything else, is raising more questions than answering them. The features look like Mars' canyons, but what kind of oceans could produce these? Water? Too cold. How about carbon dioxide or nitrogen? But it has a nitrogen atmosphere. So we await the answers and look with awe at Saturn's image in a telescope.
As usual, it gives its host of interesting images. The rings show up as a set of parallel lines etched in space, closer than we have ever seen them. The biggest interest point for me now is Titan. The probe is not supposed to eject a probe onto the Titanian surface until this (Northern) winter, but already Titan has given us some interesting images. Finally the surface of Titan has been seen! I remember long ago, in 1981 or something, when Pioneer 11 approached Saturn. It was to take a temperature of the cloud tops of Titan, but a Soviet satellite interfered. I immediately printed out a headline: "The Temperature of Titan is Sputnik." Since then astronomers have been wondering about the surface of Titan. It gives a solid orange to optical telescopes. But with an infrared and other cameras and some photo work, pictures showing the features of Titan have just come out; check out the NASA web site, which, by the way, frequently throws 404s in your face. But once in a while you get the site and you can check out the Titan photos.
The surface, like anything else, is raising more questions than answering them. The features look like Mars' canyons, but what kind of oceans could produce these? Water? Too cold. How about carbon dioxide or nitrogen? But it has a nitrogen atmosphere. So we await the answers and look with awe at Saturn's image in a telescope.
Fireworks 2004
Yesterday I went out to see the fireworks, and saw one of the best fireworks displays of my life. Usually I go out running on July 4, running to all the fireworks displays that I can find. Last year I did not see much in my neighborhood. But yesterday, I saw three good displays, including one that would have rivaled the local community's official display, and further, the displays were enhanced by lightning flashing in the distance.
I walked this year rather than ran, because Anne was with me. We went down one street to a dead end bulb, and saw some sparklers and some shooting fireworks, which fizzled when they exploded. But then we went to another display that shot sets of fireworks three or four times. These fireworks produced colorful and bright bursts in the sky, causing the ground to seem like it was lit by a strobe light. This effect was enhanced from lightning strobing up the sky from about 30-40 miles away. The combination of flashing and bright colored lights was one of the most impressive I have seen, and it beats battling huge traffic jams to go to a public display. There were even a few fireflies around. We also went to a third display, which featured two fireworks trees and several high-flying fireworks with bursts.
Later on that evening, the storm producing the lightning struck and gave us some rain and thunder. It was fortunate that the clouds and rain cleared enough for all the fireworks displays to go on OK. An excellent display, which will be tough for 2005 to beat.
I walked this year rather than ran, because Anne was with me. We went down one street to a dead end bulb, and saw some sparklers and some shooting fireworks, which fizzled when they exploded. But then we went to another display that shot sets of fireworks three or four times. These fireworks produced colorful and bright bursts in the sky, causing the ground to seem like it was lit by a strobe light. This effect was enhanced from lightning strobing up the sky from about 30-40 miles away. The combination of flashing and bright colored lights was one of the most impressive I have seen, and it beats battling huge traffic jams to go to a public display. There were even a few fireflies around. We also went to a third display, which featured two fireworks trees and several high-flying fireworks with bursts.
Later on that evening, the storm producing the lightning struck and gave us some rain and thunder. It was fortunate that the clouds and rain cleared enough for all the fireworks displays to go on OK. An excellent display, which will be tough for 2005 to beat.
2004/06/24
Summer's Flashing Lights
A Table Topic at a Toastmasters meeting that I went to tonight asked the speaker what is a prominent sign of summer was to him. She thought that bugs were the most prominent feature of summer. Yes, summer has a lot of bugs, but to me summer means blinking or flickering light. These come from various sources.
Fireworks characterize summer. They come on July 4, the American day of independence. Fireworks come in many forms, including spinning pinwheels of light, sparklers, roman candles, and rockets exploding high above into sparkling floral designs that fade out and fall to the ground. I usually don't go to public fireworks displays because of the enormous traffic jams they cause, but I do run at night on July 4 to try to find private fireworks parties near my house. Every year I find something.
Fireflies are another light of summer. When the late, mild summer nights come, the blinking bugs show up under our trees and around our yard. They signal summer to me and are somewhat nostalgic, as they remind me of the summer of 1960, when my family, passing through Virginia, stopped one night there and my brother and I caught two jars of fireflies.
Summer brings thunderstorms with their own blinking lights - lightning. Lightning is frightful, but I like to lie in bed at night when a storm comes, flashing its lightning in my window, blinking all the windows on and off. Distant lightning in an otherwise warm clear night is definitely a sign of summer for me, as are majestic thunderheads in the sunset.
There are also the stars of summer. The Summer Triangle of Vega, Deneb, and Altair rise overhead on late summer nights, and Antares and the Scorpion dangle their stinger to the horizon in the south. It's too bad we can't see many of the stars on these short, warm nights because humankind has chosen to light up the night with lights of its own, most of which are unattractive: blaring auto dealership and ballpark metal halide lights, garish high pressure sodium peaches on stalks along the highway, and neighbors who are so inconsiderate that they light up your house with their lights. These prevent me from seeing the Ultimate Lights in the Sky. So please turn off your lights. I want to see the lights of summer instead.
Fireworks characterize summer. They come on July 4, the American day of independence. Fireworks come in many forms, including spinning pinwheels of light, sparklers, roman candles, and rockets exploding high above into sparkling floral designs that fade out and fall to the ground. I usually don't go to public fireworks displays because of the enormous traffic jams they cause, but I do run at night on July 4 to try to find private fireworks parties near my house. Every year I find something.
Fireflies are another light of summer. When the late, mild summer nights come, the blinking bugs show up under our trees and around our yard. They signal summer to me and are somewhat nostalgic, as they remind me of the summer of 1960, when my family, passing through Virginia, stopped one night there and my brother and I caught two jars of fireflies.
Summer brings thunderstorms with their own blinking lights - lightning. Lightning is frightful, but I like to lie in bed at night when a storm comes, flashing its lightning in my window, blinking all the windows on and off. Distant lightning in an otherwise warm clear night is definitely a sign of summer for me, as are majestic thunderheads in the sunset.
There are also the stars of summer. The Summer Triangle of Vega, Deneb, and Altair rise overhead on late summer nights, and Antares and the Scorpion dangle their stinger to the horizon in the south. It's too bad we can't see many of the stars on these short, warm nights because humankind has chosen to light up the night with lights of its own, most of which are unattractive: blaring auto dealership and ballpark metal halide lights, garish high pressure sodium peaches on stalks along the highway, and neighbors who are so inconsiderate that they light up your house with their lights. These prevent me from seeing the Ultimate Lights in the Sky. So please turn off your lights. I want to see the lights of summer instead.
2004/06/16
A workplace gone weird
Today was a wacky day at my workplace. It featured visitors from Finland, lightning with eyes, email in stereo, and some of the people becoming all of the people.
I ran at lunchtime, like I usually do. When I came back to the exercise room, with its shower room for changing and bathing, I noticed a sign that said "If you clean up the shower room after you are finnished, the locker room will stay clean for the next time.", or something like that. Someone scribbled underneath it, "Are we all Finnish?" I would have liked to answer that one with "Yes.", or maybe even "Kyllä".
Later in the day, my computer thundered. Then it thundered again. This may sound like Alice in Wonderland, but I instructed my Outlook to sound thunder.wav whenever an email is received with "weather" or "lightning" or even "lightening" or "lighting" in the subject. There was an approaching storm, and our local operations center sent us all an email saying that the lightning watch has turned into a lightning warning, because lighting was sighting. Weird. This meant that instead of someone looking at the lightning stroke, instead the lightning stroke sprouted eyes and was looking at that someone instead. I stayed inside. I did not want to be stared at in the face by a lightning bolt. The second bolt was caused by my local division secretary resending that email out to all of us.
Which brings me to the next topic, duplicate emails. No less than eight times today, I got the same emails twice. An agency at my site would send out a message to everyone, including high level chiefs and secretaries, and including individual analysts like me. Then the secretary would send it out again, so that I got two emails. It's like emails in stereo. Next time it happens, I may tell the second sender that I have already seen it. There is a problem with the mailing or distribution lists.
Then finally was the ruling that all soldiers where I work (which is an Army post) must see a certain safety video or movie. It got emailed all over the place, and by the time it got to me, it read that everyone must see it. Somehow "all soldiers" transmogrified into "everyone". Further, we were asked to go to a certain computer server and find the tape of the movie there. Since when do you find tapes in a computer directory, unless perhaps they are backup tapes. Watch a movie on a backup tape? Not likely.
Then I attended a Toastmasters meeting in which Distinguished Toastmasters called a lectern a podium. A podium is a raised area for the feet (pod- means foot). A lectern is a stand on which you can place notes on.
And so ended a weird, weird day.
I ran at lunchtime, like I usually do. When I came back to the exercise room, with its shower room for changing and bathing, I noticed a sign that said "If you clean up the shower room after you are finnished, the locker room will stay clean for the next time.", or something like that. Someone scribbled underneath it, "Are we all Finnish?" I would have liked to answer that one with "Yes.", or maybe even "Kyllä".
Later in the day, my computer thundered. Then it thundered again. This may sound like Alice in Wonderland, but I instructed my Outlook to sound thunder.wav whenever an email is received with "weather" or "lightning" or even "lightening" or "lighting" in the subject. There was an approaching storm, and our local operations center sent us all an email saying that the lightning watch has turned into a lightning warning, because lighting was sighting. Weird. This meant that instead of someone looking at the lightning stroke, instead the lightning stroke sprouted eyes and was looking at that someone instead. I stayed inside. I did not want to be stared at in the face by a lightning bolt. The second bolt was caused by my local division secretary resending that email out to all of us.
Which brings me to the next topic, duplicate emails. No less than eight times today, I got the same emails twice. An agency at my site would send out a message to everyone, including high level chiefs and secretaries, and including individual analysts like me. Then the secretary would send it out again, so that I got two emails. It's like emails in stereo. Next time it happens, I may tell the second sender that I have already seen it. There is a problem with the mailing or distribution lists.
Then finally was the ruling that all soldiers where I work (which is an Army post) must see a certain safety video or movie. It got emailed all over the place, and by the time it got to me, it read that everyone must see it. Somehow "all soldiers" transmogrified into "everyone". Further, we were asked to go to a certain computer server and find the tape of the movie there. Since when do you find tapes in a computer directory, unless perhaps they are backup tapes. Watch a movie on a backup tape? Not likely.
Then I attended a Toastmasters meeting in which Distinguished Toastmasters called a lectern a podium. A podium is a raised area for the feet (pod- means foot). A lectern is a stand on which you can place notes on.
And so ended a weird, weird day.
2004/06/14
The Transit of Venus
On 2004 June 8, an event so rare that it occurs at most twice in a lifetime occurred. The planet Venus crossed directly in front of the Sun. I had first read about it in the 1950s in a library book that I checked out from the grammar school that I was going to as a boy. During this transit, which lasts six hours, Venus appears as a dot in front of the Sun. I went to the Science Museum of Virginia to observe the event, which was televised on Channel 12. It was one of the most ethereal events I have seen. There was fog that morning, heavy enough to interfere with driving in some places. The sun rose, husklike and dull, above a building in the distance. We could see the sun and notice with the naked eye a dot on one side, but I could not get it in the telescope, because that requires a filter so dark that it renders the brightness of the Sun viewable through a telescope. Later, it began to shine after the fog and clouds cleared a bit and I was able to get it into the telescope. It was quite a sight. I took pictures of it, one of which is on my Astronomy Scrapbook web page. We observed it until Venus reached the edge of the Sun. Then the clouds became so thick that we could not see the Sun at all. By the time my neighbor got it back in his telescope, Venus was gone.
If you missed it the past week, you have another chance in 2012, at about the same date, June 6. This is 8 Earth years or 13 Venus years from now, almost exactly. Therefore, Venus and Earth are nearly back to where they were, but this time the planet crosses the top of the disk, not the bottom. They come back in 2020, but by this time Venus' orbit has wandered so much that it does not cross the Sun any more, so no transit occurs. Then we have to wait until December of 2117. So this is truly a rare event, and I was glad that I saw it.
If you missed it the past week, you have another chance in 2012, at about the same date, June 6. This is 8 Earth years or 13 Venus years from now, almost exactly. Therefore, Venus and Earth are nearly back to where they were, but this time the planet crosses the top of the disk, not the bottom. They come back in 2020, but by this time Venus' orbit has wandered so much that it does not cross the Sun any more, so no transit occurs. Then we have to wait until December of 2117. So this is truly a rare event, and I was glad that I saw it.
2004/06/05
Smarty Horse meets his Birdstone
Today, 2004 June 5, was a sad day for fans of the wonderful race horse Smarty Jones. So many people expected him to win that he had odds of 1-5, meaning that there was an 80% chance of winning. His winning by 10 horse lengths in the Kentucky Derby may be a reason for this. So I watched what happened. Smarty also won the Preakness, so if he could win the Belmont Stakes today, he wins something called the "Triple Crown", which no horse has won since 1976 or so.
The race prebegan with a conniption on the part of Rock Hard Ten. He refused to get into the starting gate, delaying the race and causing the other horses to chafe at their bits. But he eventually got into the stall and then the race began. Smarty took a huge lead, but he quickly lost it to a combination of Purge, Eddington, Rock Hard Ten, and maybe another horse. Purge took the lead briefly. But these other horses tired out and Smarty was able to eke out another lead. Then I saw it on the TV set. A horse with a yellow number pad came up fourth, and seemed to go faster than the others. I wondered if this horse was going to win it. I wonder who he was. I found out soon he was number 4, Birdstone. There were heavy odds against him before the race, a real dark horse. Smarty extended his lead as Eddington and the other horses started to tire and go back. Then I saw number 4 gaining on him. It was an exciting and interesting finish as Birdstone kept on coming and eventually nosed out Smarty for the win. Many people were disappointed. No triple crown.
But then again, what does a Triple Crown mean? It means the same horse wins over and over again. It is like the same thing happening in your life over and over again. Do you have a Triple Crown in your life? Neuro-Linguistic Programming teaches us that if something does not work, try something else. Birdstone was something else. He was an unknown until today, and he seemed fresh, whereas all the other horses tired, including Smarty Jones. It also means that maybe the best path to success is not to try to fight the Smarty Jones pyramid. Don't try to keep up with the Smarty Joneses. Go around and establish your own Birdstone. Perhaps you may win your own personal Belmont if you do.
The race prebegan with a conniption on the part of Rock Hard Ten. He refused to get into the starting gate, delaying the race and causing the other horses to chafe at their bits. But he eventually got into the stall and then the race began. Smarty took a huge lead, but he quickly lost it to a combination of Purge, Eddington, Rock Hard Ten, and maybe another horse. Purge took the lead briefly. But these other horses tired out and Smarty was able to eke out another lead. Then I saw it on the TV set. A horse with a yellow number pad came up fourth, and seemed to go faster than the others. I wondered if this horse was going to win it. I wonder who he was. I found out soon he was number 4, Birdstone. There were heavy odds against him before the race, a real dark horse. Smarty extended his lead as Eddington and the other horses started to tire and go back. Then I saw number 4 gaining on him. It was an exciting and interesting finish as Birdstone kept on coming and eventually nosed out Smarty for the win. Many people were disappointed. No triple crown.
But then again, what does a Triple Crown mean? It means the same horse wins over and over again. It is like the same thing happening in your life over and over again. Do you have a Triple Crown in your life? Neuro-Linguistic Programming teaches us that if something does not work, try something else. Birdstone was something else. He was an unknown until today, and he seemed fresh, whereas all the other horses tired, including Smarty Jones. It also means that maybe the best path to success is not to try to fight the Smarty Jones pyramid. Don't try to keep up with the Smarty Joneses. Go around and establish your own Birdstone. Perhaps you may win your own personal Belmont if you do.
2004/06/01
Blogtrek will now be facts and impressions
Today I started a new blog, for I was mixing opinions, say of the Bush-Kerry campaign or of the Pledge of Allegiance, with experiental things such as firefly counts and skywatches. So today I started a new blog, Beyond Opinion for these opinions. Visit the site to see what it's like. From now on, I will post current event issues and opinions to the new Beyond Opinion blog, and the other, usually more pleasant and enjoyable things, will go into Blogtrek.
Hopefully, this will create a better pair of blogs for all you blog readers out there.
Today I started a new blog, for I was mixing opinions, say of the Bush-Kerry campaign or of the Pledge of Allegiance, with experiental things such as firefly counts and skywatches. So today I started a new blog, Beyond Opinion for these opinions. Visit the site to see what it's like. From now on, I will post current event issues and opinions to the new Beyond Opinion blog, and the other, usually more pleasant and enjoyable things, will go into Blogtrek.
Hopefully, this will create a better pair of blogs for all you blog readers out there.
2004/05/21
The Upcoming Oil Crisis
I am going to start a new series of blogs on this subject and may even start a new blog on it. I am really getting concerned to the point of having it shadow everything else to do. Our civilization is slowly running out of oil. I just hope that this current runup of gasoline prices is not the start of what the oil experts call the "Big Rollover", the point at which demand for oil exceeds supply.
Today I will summarize the problem and show a scale from 0-10 on which people who talk about the oil situation can be rated in terms of optimism and pessimism. The first thing to note is that there is only a finite amount of oil on this planet, and that it is not renewable, since it takes a million times as long for this planet to develop oil as it takes for humans to use it up at our current rates. Further, the development of our current standard of living seems to be mainly a product of oil; so much so that we may want to call the period from 1900-2050 the Oil Age. This age will contain my entire lifetime.
Now for some figures. According to the World Almanac, which gets its figures from oil companies and oil-producing nations, there are one trillion barrels of oil on this planet right now; a barrel is 42 gallons. The world is currently using oil at the rate of 80,000,000 barrels of oil per day, or 30,000,000,000 barrels per year. A simple division yields 33 years. It's not that simple. As oil is taken out of the ground it gets harder and harder to get the remaining oil. The amount of oil that a well is capable of getting out in fact goes down exponentially with time. For this reason, production of oil can increase only to a certain point, and then it must decline, even with plenty of oil in the ground. The point at which this is reached is called "Hubbert's Peak". The United States reached its Hubbert's Peak in 1970, and after that we had to import oil. At the same time, demand is rising exponentially, currently at about 2 percent a year. Sooner or later, supply will fall behind demand, and then prices will go up hyperbolically, an event called the Big Rollover. This will cause a severe jolt to our civilization, and the pessimists are predicting no more driving, political upheavals including possible catastrophic wars, starvation, blackouts, and possibly up to 4 billion people dying off.
So we go to other fuels. The problem is that this may be difficult or expensive, despite the fact that more energy hits the Earth from the Sun each day than is in all the oil that ever was, is, or shall be on this planet. Natural gas will peak shortly after oil. Coal will last a while but its use will seriously pollute the planet. Going nuclear will increase the chances of nuclear weapons getting into the hands of terrorists. Hydrogen seems a way out. It is like fossil fuels such as gasoline, but without the carbon. Already we can make a hydrogen or fuel-cell powered vehicle. But where do you get the hydrogen? Getting it from a fossil fuel would defeat the purpose of using hydrogen. It will have to be obtained from water by electrolysis, and that requires energy, which will need to come from the Sun. Already there are solar-powered electrolysis plants built, but this still remains a method with a lot of problems. The optimists are saying that we will convert to these and this will ease our transition from oil. The pessimists are saying that all of these will fail.
So which is it? I will write about this for a few days, but I am going to provide here a scale from 0 to 10, with 0 being the most pessimistic and 10 the most optimistic. Here are my guidelines:
10 - Oil is a renewable resource.
9 - We will run out of cheap oil well after 2050 and we should be on other fuels by then
8 - We will run out of cheap oil around 2035 or so and with some effort we should get through OK
7- We will run out of cheap oil around 2015-2020 and this will cause a serious crisis, but we will get through OK with other fuels
6 - We will run out of cheap oil next decade, causing a serious crisis, and it is probable, but not certain, that we can develop other fuels
5 - We will run out of cheap oil next decade, causing a serious crisis, and it is not certain if we will get through it.
4. - We will run out of cheap oil within about 10 years or so, causing a severe crisis, and it's probable that we will not be able to get through it.
3 - We will run out of cheap oil in about 10 years, and we will probably wind up with a serious deterioration of our style of living
2 - We will run out of cheap oil in about 10 years, and this will cause many calamities, such as famines, wars, and blackouts.
1 - We will run out of cheap oil in about ten years, bringing us back to the 1700s and causing 4 billion people to starve or be destroyed by nuclear war.
0 - We will run out of cheap oil soon, causing the human species to become extinct.
I feel that I am a 6 on this scale. So I think we are headed for a serious crisis. One thing working in our favor is that we will be entering a Fourth Turning, the time in which people take on crises and solve them. Here is how I rate other authors: Vijay Vaithyswaran, 8; Kenneth Deffeyes, 3; Colin Campbell, 2; www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net , 1; http://www.dieoff.org , 1; Paul Roberts, 5; Jeremy Rifkin, 7 (although he sounds like 3 in the beginning of Hydrogen Economy), Goodstein ("The Party's Over"), 4; Heinberg, 2; the US Government, 8; Kiplinger (letter and magazine), 8. In future blogs, I will go in to more detail on these items. What I would like to empathise, though, is that this will be a crisis, and like the Chinese ideogram for this word says, it will be a time of danger and opportunity.
I am going to start a new series of blogs on this subject and may even start a new blog on it. I am really getting concerned to the point of having it shadow everything else to do. Our civilization is slowly running out of oil. I just hope that this current runup of gasoline prices is not the start of what the oil experts call the "Big Rollover", the point at which demand for oil exceeds supply.
Today I will summarize the problem and show a scale from 0-10 on which people who talk about the oil situation can be rated in terms of optimism and pessimism. The first thing to note is that there is only a finite amount of oil on this planet, and that it is not renewable, since it takes a million times as long for this planet to develop oil as it takes for humans to use it up at our current rates. Further, the development of our current standard of living seems to be mainly a product of oil; so much so that we may want to call the period from 1900-2050 the Oil Age. This age will contain my entire lifetime.
Now for some figures. According to the World Almanac, which gets its figures from oil companies and oil-producing nations, there are one trillion barrels of oil on this planet right now; a barrel is 42 gallons. The world is currently using oil at the rate of 80,000,000 barrels of oil per day, or 30,000,000,000 barrels per year. A simple division yields 33 years. It's not that simple. As oil is taken out of the ground it gets harder and harder to get the remaining oil. The amount of oil that a well is capable of getting out in fact goes down exponentially with time. For this reason, production of oil can increase only to a certain point, and then it must decline, even with plenty of oil in the ground. The point at which this is reached is called "Hubbert's Peak". The United States reached its Hubbert's Peak in 1970, and after that we had to import oil. At the same time, demand is rising exponentially, currently at about 2 percent a year. Sooner or later, supply will fall behind demand, and then prices will go up hyperbolically, an event called the Big Rollover. This will cause a severe jolt to our civilization, and the pessimists are predicting no more driving, political upheavals including possible catastrophic wars, starvation, blackouts, and possibly up to 4 billion people dying off.
So we go to other fuels. The problem is that this may be difficult or expensive, despite the fact that more energy hits the Earth from the Sun each day than is in all the oil that ever was, is, or shall be on this planet. Natural gas will peak shortly after oil. Coal will last a while but its use will seriously pollute the planet. Going nuclear will increase the chances of nuclear weapons getting into the hands of terrorists. Hydrogen seems a way out. It is like fossil fuels such as gasoline, but without the carbon. Already we can make a hydrogen or fuel-cell powered vehicle. But where do you get the hydrogen? Getting it from a fossil fuel would defeat the purpose of using hydrogen. It will have to be obtained from water by electrolysis, and that requires energy, which will need to come from the Sun. Already there are solar-powered electrolysis plants built, but this still remains a method with a lot of problems. The optimists are saying that we will convert to these and this will ease our transition from oil. The pessimists are saying that all of these will fail.
So which is it? I will write about this for a few days, but I am going to provide here a scale from 0 to 10, with 0 being the most pessimistic and 10 the most optimistic. Here are my guidelines:
10 - Oil is a renewable resource.
9 - We will run out of cheap oil well after 2050 and we should be on other fuels by then
8 - We will run out of cheap oil around 2035 or so and with some effort we should get through OK
7- We will run out of cheap oil around 2015-2020 and this will cause a serious crisis, but we will get through OK with other fuels
6 - We will run out of cheap oil next decade, causing a serious crisis, and it is probable, but not certain, that we can develop other fuels
5 - We will run out of cheap oil next decade, causing a serious crisis, and it is not certain if we will get through it.
4. - We will run out of cheap oil within about 10 years or so, causing a severe crisis, and it's probable that we will not be able to get through it.
3 - We will run out of cheap oil in about 10 years, and we will probably wind up with a serious deterioration of our style of living
2 - We will run out of cheap oil in about 10 years, and this will cause many calamities, such as famines, wars, and blackouts.
1 - We will run out of cheap oil in about ten years, bringing us back to the 1700s and causing 4 billion people to starve or be destroyed by nuclear war.
0 - We will run out of cheap oil soon, causing the human species to become extinct.
I feel that I am a 6 on this scale. So I think we are headed for a serious crisis. One thing working in our favor is that we will be entering a Fourth Turning, the time in which people take on crises and solve them. Here is how I rate other authors: Vijay Vaithyswaran, 8; Kenneth Deffeyes, 3; Colin Campbell, 2; www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net , 1; http://www.dieoff.org , 1; Paul Roberts, 5; Jeremy Rifkin, 7 (although he sounds like 3 in the beginning of Hydrogen Economy), Goodstein ("The Party's Over"), 4; Heinberg, 2; the US Government, 8; Kiplinger (letter and magazine), 8. In future blogs, I will go in to more detail on these items. What I would like to empathise, though, is that this will be a crisis, and like the Chinese ideogram for this word says, it will be a time of danger and opportunity.
It is now too close to call
Up to now I have been saying that Bush will probably win election this fall because he has lost only 4 Lichtman keys. A while back I said that Bush may lose Key 9 (Scandal) but he probably would still be re-elected, since he still will have lost only 5 keys.
I now say the election is too close to call. It has been behaving that way for a while. A look at Rasmussen Reports shows that for the past few months, Bush and Kerry have been running neck and neck. The graphs of their percentages intertwine with each other like a braid. But it is not the polls primarily that make me say that it is too close to call; they are almost meaningless at this time anyway. No, what's happened is that three of the keys are so shaky that is probable that one or more of them will fall by Election Day, and if two or three of them fall, Bush will be defeated. These are the Short Term Economy Key 5; the Scandal Key 9; and the Foreign or Military Success Key 11.
Short Term Economy. The economy has been perking up as of late. The stock market has been going up and companies are earning more on their bottom lines up front. It seems now that the employment rates are picking up. However, a Rasmussen poll shows that a substantial portion of the American electorate think that we are in or about to head into a recession. If that's the case, the key falls, since what people perceive, not what is in some table of statistics, is what matters with respect to the economics keys. Further, there are trouble signs ahead. The price of gasoline keeps going up and up and up, and I feel that it will go up until people stop demanding it. Since people feel they have to go to work and so forth, and since they feel that $2 and $3 /gallon gasoline won't bother them, the price is likely to exceed $4/gallon. That will certainly hurt the economy. And there is the threat of higher interest rates and the ballooning federal deficit. To me this points to a possible setback in the economy, one which may cause Key 5 to fail.
Scandal. The pictures keep coming and coming and coming. Each new prison abuse scandal picture raises questions and keeps the scandal alive like twigs being added to a fire. A few down the line are being punished, but it seems to me that this scandal is going to affect the higher-ups. Sen. McCain says that the administration should not let it dribble out like this and should come clean with it all. But the clincher is Lichtman himself saying in El País that "Rumsfeld…is a political corpse." I.e., we may have bi-partisan criticism of the scandal and high officials about to leave. This would constitute scandal as far as Key 9 is concerned and would cause the key to fall. I said earlier that it has fallen, but I now see that people need to perceive of it as a major scandal, and this may not have happened yet. But if things continue like they are, it will.
Foreign or Military Success. It seemed at first that Bush earned this. He got rid of a cruel dictator and was going to make it easier for 112 billion Iraqi barrels of oil to get onto the market. But now the perception is that we have gotten into a quagmire instead. This together with the prison scandal may take away this key; Lichtman has expressed some hesitation now as to whether he has this key.
In summary, all three of these keys are shaky indeed, and it seems probable that Key 9 will fall. To me it now seems possible, but not certain, that two or three of these keys will have fallen by Election Day, and if that happens, Bush will lose. Of course if only one of these keys fall, Bush will win. So it is my opinion now that the election is too close to call. Further deterioration of these key's positions may lead to my calling the election for Kerry.
Up to now I have been saying that Bush will probably win election this fall because he has lost only 4 Lichtman keys. A while back I said that Bush may lose Key 9 (Scandal) but he probably would still be re-elected, since he still will have lost only 5 keys.
I now say the election is too close to call. It has been behaving that way for a while. A look at Rasmussen Reports shows that for the past few months, Bush and Kerry have been running neck and neck. The graphs of their percentages intertwine with each other like a braid. But it is not the polls primarily that make me say that it is too close to call; they are almost meaningless at this time anyway. No, what's happened is that three of the keys are so shaky that is probable that one or more of them will fall by Election Day, and if two or three of them fall, Bush will be defeated. These are the Short Term Economy Key 5; the Scandal Key 9; and the Foreign or Military Success Key 11.
Short Term Economy. The economy has been perking up as of late. The stock market has been going up and companies are earning more on their bottom lines up front. It seems now that the employment rates are picking up. However, a Rasmussen poll shows that a substantial portion of the American electorate think that we are in or about to head into a recession. If that's the case, the key falls, since what people perceive, not what is in some table of statistics, is what matters with respect to the economics keys. Further, there are trouble signs ahead. The price of gasoline keeps going up and up and up, and I feel that it will go up until people stop demanding it. Since people feel they have to go to work and so forth, and since they feel that $2 and $3 /gallon gasoline won't bother them, the price is likely to exceed $4/gallon. That will certainly hurt the economy. And there is the threat of higher interest rates and the ballooning federal deficit. To me this points to a possible setback in the economy, one which may cause Key 5 to fail.
Scandal. The pictures keep coming and coming and coming. Each new prison abuse scandal picture raises questions and keeps the scandal alive like twigs being added to a fire. A few down the line are being punished, but it seems to me that this scandal is going to affect the higher-ups. Sen. McCain says that the administration should not let it dribble out like this and should come clean with it all. But the clincher is Lichtman himself saying in El País that "Rumsfeld…is a political corpse." I.e., we may have bi-partisan criticism of the scandal and high officials about to leave. This would constitute scandal as far as Key 9 is concerned and would cause the key to fall. I said earlier that it has fallen, but I now see that people need to perceive of it as a major scandal, and this may not have happened yet. But if things continue like they are, it will.
Foreign or Military Success. It seemed at first that Bush earned this. He got rid of a cruel dictator and was going to make it easier for 112 billion Iraqi barrels of oil to get onto the market. But now the perception is that we have gotten into a quagmire instead. This together with the prison scandal may take away this key; Lichtman has expressed some hesitation now as to whether he has this key.
In summary, all three of these keys are shaky indeed, and it seems probable that Key 9 will fall. To me it now seems possible, but not certain, that two or three of these keys will have fallen by Election Day, and if that happens, Bush will lose. Of course if only one of these keys fall, Bush will win. So it is my opinion now that the election is too close to call. Further deterioration of these key's positions may lead to my calling the election for Kerry.
2004/05/13
A comet and the International Space Station
It is not publicized much except in astronomical circles but there are two fairly bright comets out there, NEAT and LINEAR. They are named after satellites. It does not mean that they are nice clean easy-to-understand bodies. I went out to try to find comet NEAT tonight at about 2004 May 13 2132. I could not find it at first (a Sky and Tel map suggests it is at the intersection of parallel lines drawn through the Gemini twins and Procyon), but then I caught onto something else: a moving yellow star in the west. I thought plane at first, but the light was steady, yellow, and moving steady with no noise or huge increase in brightness. So I thought this was the International Space Station. I followed it across the sky, going through the bowl of the Big Dipper, and then it disappeared in trees to the east of Ursa Major. I looked it up in http://www.heavens-above.com and found this line:
Date Mag Starts Max. Altitude Ends
Time Alt. Az. Time Alt. Az. Time Alt. Az.
13 May -0.6 21:31:23 10 SW 21:34:20 74 NW 21:37:21 10 NE
Sure enough, this was the International Space Station pass. I looked at the diagram at this site,
and it matched what I saw perfectly. So I saw the Station tonight, and what made it interesting was that I was not specially planning on looking for it; I just happened to see it serendipitously when I was looking for something else.
Oh, yes. I looked a little harder and I did find a smidgeon of light which I believe was the comet. Interesting but not as spectacular as Hyakutake or Hale-Bopp.
By the way, be CAREFUL when going to the Heavens Above website. I superaccented the hyphen above. It is important. If you omit it and/or get the extension wrong, you may wind up with a window in your face asking if you would like to change your default web page to such and such, and then it may start doing other evil things. Apparently someone has set up a trap to some spyware. I took care of the problem by killing every browser window on the screen with the Task Manager. So be careful and make sure that hyphen is in there!
It is not publicized much except in astronomical circles but there are two fairly bright comets out there, NEAT and LINEAR. They are named after satellites. It does not mean that they are nice clean easy-to-understand bodies. I went out to try to find comet NEAT tonight at about 2004 May 13 2132. I could not find it at first (a Sky and Tel map suggests it is at the intersection of parallel lines drawn through the Gemini twins and Procyon), but then I caught onto something else: a moving yellow star in the west. I thought plane at first, but the light was steady, yellow, and moving steady with no noise or huge increase in brightness. So I thought this was the International Space Station. I followed it across the sky, going through the bowl of the Big Dipper, and then it disappeared in trees to the east of Ursa Major. I looked it up in http://www.heavens-above.com and found this line:
Date Mag Starts Max. Altitude Ends
Time Alt. Az. Time Alt. Az. Time Alt. Az.
13 May -0.6 21:31:23 10 SW 21:34:20 74 NW 21:37:21 10 NE
Sure enough, this was the International Space Station pass. I looked at the diagram at this site,
and it matched what I saw perfectly. So I saw the Station tonight, and what made it interesting was that I was not specially planning on looking for it; I just happened to see it serendipitously when I was looking for something else.
Oh, yes. I looked a little harder and I did find a smidgeon of light which I believe was the comet. Interesting but not as spectacular as Hyakutake or Hale-Bopp.
By the way, be CAREFUL when going to the Heavens Above website. I superaccented the hyphen above. It is important. If you omit it and/or get the extension wrong, you may wind up with a window in your face asking if you would like to change your default web page to such and such, and then it may start doing other evil things. Apparently someone has set up a trap to some spyware. I took care of the problem by killing every browser window on the screen with the Task Manager. So be careful and make sure that hyphen is in there!
2004/05/12
Disturbing phone call from the Kerry camp?
Today at 2004 May 12 1915 EDT, I received a call from "unavailable" and answered it, so I could get off the phone list of this varmint telemarketer. It turned out to be purportedly from the John Kerry for President campaign. I hope this is not the real Kerry for President campaign doing this, for I find the technique unacceptable. I routinely vote against candidates who throw computer solicitation calls on my telephone. In this case, I can't say that I would vote against Kerry, because I feel that his opponent, Bush, needs to leave office this January, and up to now, I had been supportive of the Kerry campaign. It is quite possible that this is not from the Kerry campaign; after all, it does not end with "I am John Kerry, and I approve of this computer solicitation call". If I had heard that, I would be seriously considering a vote for Ralph Nader instead, and further, urging my Democratic and liberal friends to vote for Nader as well. But no such comment was in the call. I was given the option of 1 for contributing money, 2 for volunteering time, and 3 for neither but willing to vote for Kerry. My response was none of these; I was going to tell them I am now seriously considering voting for Nader. I tried pressing 4, and it said that it was an invalid response. Sorry, call. You are an invalid call, as far as I am concerned. I waited instead and eventually it said goodbye. I then emailed this to the Kerry campaign:
Just now, at 2004 May 12 1915, I received a computer call saying it was from your campaign. It was from an "unavailable" telephone number. It asked if I wanted to contribute, volunteer, or just simply vote for Kerry. I am in favor of Kerry for this election; in fact, I want Bush out of the White House after this year. However, this campaign tactic was unacceptable to me. It is the behavior of a telemarketer; especially disturbing to me was that it came from an unavailable number. I hope that it was not from your campaign, and that it was a telephone spammer purporting to come from your campaign. Please confirm or deny to me that it was not from your campaign. For if it was from your campaign, and I continue to receive such calls, I may very well vote for Nader instead and urge my friends to do so also.
Of course the election campaign is still early, and the Bush camp may also throw computer calls on my telephone, as may Nader. I will keep score on this and report it on this blog. Right now, it is Kerry 1, Bush 0. If Bush leads this score in November, I will certainly vote against him, as I would anyway. If Kerry leads it instead, and Nader hasn't been throwing computer calls on my telephone, I will seriously consider voting for Nader instead. I hope I don't have to do this, but campaigners need to understand that it is not OK for them to put computer calls on my telephone. I just hope it was a spammer instead.
Today at 2004 May 12 1915 EDT, I received a call from "unavailable" and answered it, so I could get off the phone list of this varmint telemarketer. It turned out to be purportedly from the John Kerry for President campaign. I hope this is not the real Kerry for President campaign doing this, for I find the technique unacceptable. I routinely vote against candidates who throw computer solicitation calls on my telephone. In this case, I can't say that I would vote against Kerry, because I feel that his opponent, Bush, needs to leave office this January, and up to now, I had been supportive of the Kerry campaign. It is quite possible that this is not from the Kerry campaign; after all, it does not end with "I am John Kerry, and I approve of this computer solicitation call". If I had heard that, I would be seriously considering a vote for Ralph Nader instead, and further, urging my Democratic and liberal friends to vote for Nader as well. But no such comment was in the call. I was given the option of 1 for contributing money, 2 for volunteering time, and 3 for neither but willing to vote for Kerry. My response was none of these; I was going to tell them I am now seriously considering voting for Nader. I tried pressing 4, and it said that it was an invalid response. Sorry, call. You are an invalid call, as far as I am concerned. I waited instead and eventually it said goodbye. I then emailed this to the Kerry campaign:
Just now, at 2004 May 12 1915, I received a computer call saying it was from your campaign. It was from an "unavailable" telephone number. It asked if I wanted to contribute, volunteer, or just simply vote for Kerry. I am in favor of Kerry for this election; in fact, I want Bush out of the White House after this year. However, this campaign tactic was unacceptable to me. It is the behavior of a telemarketer; especially disturbing to me was that it came from an unavailable number. I hope that it was not from your campaign, and that it was a telephone spammer purporting to come from your campaign. Please confirm or deny to me that it was not from your campaign. For if it was from your campaign, and I continue to receive such calls, I may very well vote for Nader instead and urge my friends to do so also.
Of course the election campaign is still early, and the Bush camp may also throw computer calls on my telephone, as may Nader. I will keep score on this and report it on this blog. Right now, it is Kerry 1, Bush 0. If Bush leads this score in November, I will certainly vote against him, as I would anyway. If Kerry leads it instead, and Nader hasn't been throwing computer calls on my telephone, I will seriously consider voting for Nader instead. I hope I don't have to do this, but campaigners need to understand that it is not OK for them to put computer calls on my telephone. I just hope it was a spammer instead.
2004/05/09
Carly Simon again
On 2003 August 5, I posted a blog about Carly Simon, as the identity of her mystery lover in "You're So Vain" was going to be revealed for $50,000. At that time the speculaion was on Warren Beatty, Mick Jagger, Kris Kristofferson, and Cat Stevens. She has had affairs with all of these. In the song "You're So Vain", Carly says that this man was dressed in an apricot scarf and was looking around to see all the women admire him. Then she describes how he goes gavotting all over the place and how he has affairs with the wife of a close friend. In 30 years, she has never disclosed the identity of this vain man.
The question came about again recently, when a compendium album of her works came out recently, within the week, followed by a CNN story about her. The story said she grew up in difficult circumstances as the youngest child, and described her marriage and divorce to James and later, her struggle with breast cancer. During the program she gave a hint. There is an "e" in his last name. Great help that is. All four possibilities have an "e" in his last name. Then she gave another clue. There is an "a" in his name. This is beginning to sound like Jeopardy now. That does eliminate Kris Kristofferson. and probably Cat Stevens, although I don't know whether she said "last" or not. That leaves Warren Beatty and Mick Jagger. Apparently neither of these two people want to reveal who it is. Maybe he is just a figment of her imagination.
It still is the case that the song is as contradictory as "This sentence is false", saying of itself that it is about this mystery man, but indicating that the man is so vain that he thinks it is about him, indicating that it isn't, causing a contradiction. It is a good background song for mathematics talks, especially those dealing with logic and foundations, because of its antinomy. It is also a good one for astronomy talks, because she sings about an eclipse. So every once in a while I play it.
Back in 2003 I also mentioned that I wrote a song, of which some of the lyrics are at jimvb.home.mindspring.com/music2002.htm . The song refers to meeting a woman between a fire and a storm under a rainbow. I said at that time that it is about someone, and I will tell when Carly Simon tells. That still holds.
On 2003 August 5, I posted a blog about Carly Simon, as the identity of her mystery lover in "You're So Vain" was going to be revealed for $50,000. At that time the speculaion was on Warren Beatty, Mick Jagger, Kris Kristofferson, and Cat Stevens. She has had affairs with all of these. In the song "You're So Vain", Carly says that this man was dressed in an apricot scarf and was looking around to see all the women admire him. Then she describes how he goes gavotting all over the place and how he has affairs with the wife of a close friend. In 30 years, she has never disclosed the identity of this vain man.
The question came about again recently, when a compendium album of her works came out recently, within the week, followed by a CNN story about her. The story said she grew up in difficult circumstances as the youngest child, and described her marriage and divorce to James and later, her struggle with breast cancer. During the program she gave a hint. There is an "e" in his last name. Great help that is. All four possibilities have an "e" in his last name. Then she gave another clue. There is an "a" in his name. This is beginning to sound like Jeopardy now. That does eliminate Kris Kristofferson. and probably Cat Stevens, although I don't know whether she said "last" or not. That leaves Warren Beatty and Mick Jagger. Apparently neither of these two people want to reveal who it is. Maybe he is just a figment of her imagination.
It still is the case that the song is as contradictory as "This sentence is false", saying of itself that it is about this mystery man, but indicating that the man is so vain that he thinks it is about him, indicating that it isn't, causing a contradiction. It is a good background song for mathematics talks, especially those dealing with logic and foundations, because of its antinomy. It is also a good one for astronomy talks, because she sings about an eclipse. So every once in a while I play it.
Back in 2003 I also mentioned that I wrote a song, of which some of the lyrics are at jimvb.home.mindspring.com/music2002.htm . The song refers to meeting a woman between a fire and a storm under a rainbow. I said at that time that it is about someone, and I will tell when Carly Simon tells. That still holds.
Has the Scandal Key fallen?
Who will win the Presidential Election this fall? Allan Lichtman, a history professor at American University, came up with a list of 13 criteria for determining the winner of a presidential election. His method works for all elections from 1860-2000, although it does predict the popular vote winner, as Gore in 2000, instead of the electoral vote winner, and it does not work for elections before 1856. It does not work for 1856, in particular, suggesting that Fremont won that election. The reference above says that for 2004, 8 of the keys are standing for the incumbent candidate (Bush), 4 of the keys have fallen (become false), and one was shaky (the short term economy key).
Up to now that still seems to be the case. Bush clinched Key 2 when he got enough delegates to win 2/3 of the votes for the Republican nomination. He won Key 13 when Tom Edwards, possibly charismatic, gave up his quest for the Presidency. Five keys are still in play: 4, Third Party; 8, social unrest; 9, scandal; 11, foreign or military success, and 5, short-term economy. Bush seemed to have these, although Key 5 is shaky because of high gasoline prices and expectation of rising interest rates, and Key 11 is shaky because of the increasing GI deaths and violence in Iraq. But has the Scandal Key fallen?
I am talking about those pictures from Al Gharib Prison in Baghdad. They have really caused a furor, including calls for Secretary of Defense Rumsfeld to resign. They are really horrible. We send our troops to free the Iraqis from atrocities committed by the Saddam regime, and then we commit atrocities ourselves. If a man were to abduct a bunch of women and pile them up in stacks, put them in sexual positions, and drag them on the floor on a leash, we would say that he was a sexual predator, we would post him on web sites and we would get all flustered if such a predator were to move into our neighborhood. Yet here are female GIs doing the same to male prisoners at the prison. It seems that we have one standard for Americans and one for Iraqis. The Arab world is in uproar about it, terror attacks have become more likely, and our European allies do not respect us as much. So this is a major scandal. Will it cost Bush the scandal key?
I think it will. Compare the scandal with other scandals. The comparisons are that the Iran-Contra scandal during Reagan's administration was not a Key 9 Scandal, whereas Lewinsky was for Gore (Clinton), and Watergate was for Ford (Nixon). So how does Prison Abuse compare with these? It is worse than Iran-Contra, since abusing people is worse than bilking them out of money or giving a rebel group the money. Furthermore, there is the hypocrisy of saying that we are freeing Iraqis, and then giving them torture just like Saddam did. It is definitely worse than Lewinsky, since that was a consensual sexual dalliance, whereas what happened in the prison was sexual harassment and assault. It is even worse than Watergate, since mistreating people is worse than breaking and entering to bug a headquarters. So this would certainly qualify. But it will only if people think it will. From what I have heard from people, apparently it will. One person says that if the sides were reversed, we would be squawking about the Iraqis and demanding retribution.
It remains to be seen if this scandal will worsen to Key 9 extent, although certainly it will affect our relations with Arab regimes for years to come. But from what I have seen, I think if the key has not fallen, it will shortly. This means that Bush now has lost five keys. I still predict Bush will win but he is hanging right on the borderline; it is far more uncertain now. If Bush loses another key (most likely Key 5, economy, or Key 11, foreign success), Kerry will be our next President. And with rising gasoline prices and a worsening situation in Iraq, this could very well happen. The contest is now much closer now than it has been only a few weeks ago.
Who will win the Presidential Election this fall? Allan Lichtman, a history professor at American University, came up with a list of 13 criteria for determining the winner of a presidential election. His method works for all elections from 1860-2000, although it does predict the popular vote winner, as Gore in 2000, instead of the electoral vote winner, and it does not work for elections before 1856. It does not work for 1856, in particular, suggesting that Fremont won that election. The reference above says that for 2004, 8 of the keys are standing for the incumbent candidate (Bush), 4 of the keys have fallen (become false), and one was shaky (the short term economy key).
Up to now that still seems to be the case. Bush clinched Key 2 when he got enough delegates to win 2/3 of the votes for the Republican nomination. He won Key 13 when Tom Edwards, possibly charismatic, gave up his quest for the Presidency. Five keys are still in play: 4, Third Party; 8, social unrest; 9, scandal; 11, foreign or military success, and 5, short-term economy. Bush seemed to have these, although Key 5 is shaky because of high gasoline prices and expectation of rising interest rates, and Key 11 is shaky because of the increasing GI deaths and violence in Iraq. But has the Scandal Key fallen?
I am talking about those pictures from Al Gharib Prison in Baghdad. They have really caused a furor, including calls for Secretary of Defense Rumsfeld to resign. They are really horrible. We send our troops to free the Iraqis from atrocities committed by the Saddam regime, and then we commit atrocities ourselves. If a man were to abduct a bunch of women and pile them up in stacks, put them in sexual positions, and drag them on the floor on a leash, we would say that he was a sexual predator, we would post him on web sites and we would get all flustered if such a predator were to move into our neighborhood. Yet here are female GIs doing the same to male prisoners at the prison. It seems that we have one standard for Americans and one for Iraqis. The Arab world is in uproar about it, terror attacks have become more likely, and our European allies do not respect us as much. So this is a major scandal. Will it cost Bush the scandal key?
I think it will. Compare the scandal with other scandals. The comparisons are that the Iran-Contra scandal during Reagan's administration was not a Key 9 Scandal, whereas Lewinsky was for Gore (Clinton), and Watergate was for Ford (Nixon). So how does Prison Abuse compare with these? It is worse than Iran-Contra, since abusing people is worse than bilking them out of money or giving a rebel group the money. Furthermore, there is the hypocrisy of saying that we are freeing Iraqis, and then giving them torture just like Saddam did. It is definitely worse than Lewinsky, since that was a consensual sexual dalliance, whereas what happened in the prison was sexual harassment and assault. It is even worse than Watergate, since mistreating people is worse than breaking and entering to bug a headquarters. So this would certainly qualify. But it will only if people think it will. From what I have heard from people, apparently it will. One person says that if the sides were reversed, we would be squawking about the Iraqis and demanding retribution.
It remains to be seen if this scandal will worsen to Key 9 extent, although certainly it will affect our relations with Arab regimes for years to come. But from what I have seen, I think if the key has not fallen, it will shortly. This means that Bush now has lost five keys. I still predict Bush will win but he is hanging right on the borderline; it is far more uncertain now. If Bush loses another key (most likely Key 5, economy, or Key 11, foreign success), Kerry will be our next President. And with rising gasoline prices and a worsening situation in Iraq, this could very well happen. The contest is now much closer now than it has been only a few weeks ago.
2004/05/05
Boycott Disney
In the past two months Disney has made two severe transgressions, and for that reason, I call for a boycott of Disney. I am not going to go to any Disney movies, buy any Disney products, or go to any Disney theme park.
The first of these is that Disney is a junk mailer. I got a piece of mail from them recently, with the letters ATMG in the address. Those letters mean Advanced Toastmaster Gold, which is solely a Toastmasters term, and in fact is trademarked by Toastmasters. Apparently Disney got a hold of a list of Toastmasters and started sending out mass mail to the people on this list. This is a direct violation of Toastmasters policy, which states that lists of Toastmasters and clubs are to be used only for Toastmasters purposes. Disney Enterprises has violated this policy.
The second concerns Michael Moore's Fahrenheit 9/11, a film critical of Bush since Planeattack in 2001. I have heard that Disney will not produce the film. Thereby they have proclaimed that they do not believe in freedom of speech. Disney wants to suppress free speech, evidently. I know they are a private corporation, but movies, for instance, are produced only by corporations, and so this denies people the right to see the movies they want. I watched Moore's Bowling for Columbine, about the gunhappiness of America, and found it to be one of the best films I have ever seen. I want to see Fahrenheit 9/11 as well. That does not mean that I necessarily agree with Moore; in fact, I suspect that there is some material of questionable validity in the film. But I still want to see the film itself, and regardless of the content, I expect it to be as good as Bowling for Columbine.
For these two reasons I am boycotting Disney until it stops sending out unwanted material and until it starts producing wanted material.
In the past two months Disney has made two severe transgressions, and for that reason, I call for a boycott of Disney. I am not going to go to any Disney movies, buy any Disney products, or go to any Disney theme park.
The first of these is that Disney is a junk mailer. I got a piece of mail from them recently, with the letters ATMG in the address. Those letters mean Advanced Toastmaster Gold, which is solely a Toastmasters term, and in fact is trademarked by Toastmasters. Apparently Disney got a hold of a list of Toastmasters and started sending out mass mail to the people on this list. This is a direct violation of Toastmasters policy, which states that lists of Toastmasters and clubs are to be used only for Toastmasters purposes. Disney Enterprises has violated this policy.
The second concerns Michael Moore's Fahrenheit 9/11, a film critical of Bush since Planeattack in 2001. I have heard that Disney will not produce the film. Thereby they have proclaimed that they do not believe in freedom of speech. Disney wants to suppress free speech, evidently. I know they are a private corporation, but movies, for instance, are produced only by corporations, and so this denies people the right to see the movies they want. I watched Moore's Bowling for Columbine, about the gunhappiness of America, and found it to be one of the best films I have ever seen. I want to see Fahrenheit 9/11 as well. That does not mean that I necessarily agree with Moore; in fact, I suspect that there is some material of questionable validity in the film. But I still want to see the film itself, and regardless of the content, I expect it to be as good as Bowling for Columbine.
For these two reasons I am boycotting Disney until it stops sending out unwanted material and until it starts producing wanted material.
Torture in Iraq and other places caused by a word
The latest thing out of Iraq is the torture of Iraqi prisoners by US military servicepeople and by civilian contractors. This has really dented America's image. The Arabs are incensed by this. We harp all over the place about sexual harassment and sexual crime, and then the Army does it to prisoners in Iraq. This country still holds 500 prisoners or so without charges in Guantanamo, and there are other places where our country is possibly mistreating prisoners. What's the cause of this? I think I know. It's a word.
Oppression of others is in our history. First the Eastern Native Americans, who were forced to march out of their territory, causing many to die. Then came the Confederates. Their cause was flawed by their practice of slavery, but that still did not justify the brutality of Sherman's March, which in some cases wiped out entire towns. Then Sherman showed his brutality again to the Native Americans, this time to the Plains tribes of Lakota and Cheyenne during the late 19th century, culminating in the Battle of Wounded Knee. There were the My Lai massacre and numerous other incidents. What justifies most of these incidents? A word.
Most of us would be appalled at these acts. Killing is forbidden in our laws and carries a heavy penalty. Forcing sex on someone, robbing them, injuring or torturing them are all serious felonies carrying long prison sentences. No one would think of doing these things except where a certain word is used. What is that word? F--k? NO.
WAR.
Union forces justified their acts by saying that it is a war, the Civil War. If it is a war, you can go ahead and kill and torture the enemy or even commit sex crimes against them. We justify it as bravery, and keep score of how many enemy fighters we have shot down. Soldiers kill enemy, and then they are praised as heroes. Now sometimes war may be justified, but these may be precious few. Certainly the events of the past three years do not qualify.
The reason why these acts are rationalized by those who do them is that they say it is a war. We hear this all the time. This nation is at war. That isn't even the case. The hunt for Al Qaeda is a police manhunt, not a war. The US action in Iraq may have been a war at first, but since then it has been an occupation, not a war. Calling these a war is what I feel has caused these wanton acts which would not be tolerated in a peaceful American community. It is time to start acting more civilized. There are major problems out there that require cooperation. Most of all, it is time to stop saying "War on Terror" and War in Iraq". Stop saying "WAR".
The latest thing out of Iraq is the torture of Iraqi prisoners by US military servicepeople and by civilian contractors. This has really dented America's image. The Arabs are incensed by this. We harp all over the place about sexual harassment and sexual crime, and then the Army does it to prisoners in Iraq. This country still holds 500 prisoners or so without charges in Guantanamo, and there are other places where our country is possibly mistreating prisoners. What's the cause of this? I think I know. It's a word.
Oppression of others is in our history. First the Eastern Native Americans, who were forced to march out of their territory, causing many to die. Then came the Confederates. Their cause was flawed by their practice of slavery, but that still did not justify the brutality of Sherman's March, which in some cases wiped out entire towns. Then Sherman showed his brutality again to the Native Americans, this time to the Plains tribes of Lakota and Cheyenne during the late 19th century, culminating in the Battle of Wounded Knee. There were the My Lai massacre and numerous other incidents. What justifies most of these incidents? A word.
Most of us would be appalled at these acts. Killing is forbidden in our laws and carries a heavy penalty. Forcing sex on someone, robbing them, injuring or torturing them are all serious felonies carrying long prison sentences. No one would think of doing these things except where a certain word is used. What is that word? F--k? NO.
WAR.
Union forces justified their acts by saying that it is a war, the Civil War. If it is a war, you can go ahead and kill and torture the enemy or even commit sex crimes against them. We justify it as bravery, and keep score of how many enemy fighters we have shot down. Soldiers kill enemy, and then they are praised as heroes. Now sometimes war may be justified, but these may be precious few. Certainly the events of the past three years do not qualify.
The reason why these acts are rationalized by those who do them is that they say it is a war. We hear this all the time. This nation is at war. That isn't even the case. The hunt for Al Qaeda is a police manhunt, not a war. The US action in Iraq may have been a war at first, but since then it has been an occupation, not a war. Calling these a war is what I feel has caused these wanton acts which would not be tolerated in a peaceful American community. It is time to start acting more civilized. There are major problems out there that require cooperation. Most of all, it is time to stop saying "War on Terror" and War in Iraq". Stop saying "WAR".
2004/05/02
Virginia Beach
I went to a Toastmasters conference on Virginia Beach this weekend. I found it to be an interesting place. The colors of the buildings are colors that can't be named very easily; for example, is it yellow or green? Is it purple or pink? I call such colors Miami Vice colors, naming them after the television program. They were abundant at Virginia Beach. The beach there is interesting - one can run around in bare feet on it because for the most part there are no shells. There is a concretewalk (it is not a boardwalk since it is not made of boards) along the beaches separating them from a long line of high-rise hotels designed to give the maximum number of people a view of the ocean from their room.
There was a bunch of rambunctious teenagers or young adults there and they filled up the swimming pool. The most interesting things there were the signs that say spiral lightningstroke sharp !! with a cross over it indicating "no". In other words, no cursing or using foul language. To me it is a commentary on American culture, especially that of young people that signs are required that are like this. Other signs use words to say that no obscene language, sexual behavior and so forth is allowed on the streets, and also that violation of the law is prohibited. Huhh? Where in this large world of ours is it ever permitted? That would be a contradiction.
The conference featured two contests: a table topics contest and a 5-7 minute speech contest. In the table topics contest a topic is given. This year it is: What is your road like? That is an interesting question. I say in my case that it started straight, had to detour and led me to being lost in the woods. Others came up with their own answers, including some with a circuitous route (rhymes with "clout") and some with a straight route (rhymes with "boot") in which the person knew what he was going to do. The 5-7 minute speech (or International Speech) contest included one speaker decrying the human tendency to keep score. They did a wrong to us so we got to do it back to them. Give unto them as you would have them give unto you. They entertained us so we got to entertain them. The speaker debunked this notion and suggested that doing what you honestly want is better than trying to keep score. However, Toastmasters, with all of its point systems, including that for Distinguished Club, Distinguished District, and so forth, notoriously keeps score on everything. Maybe Toastmasters is not that healthy.
I say join Toastmasters, improve your speaking and leadership skills, and forget the points.
I went to a Toastmasters conference on Virginia Beach this weekend. I found it to be an interesting place. The colors of the buildings are colors that can't be named very easily; for example, is it yellow or green? Is it purple or pink? I call such colors Miami Vice colors, naming them after the television program. They were abundant at Virginia Beach. The beach there is interesting - one can run around in bare feet on it because for the most part there are no shells. There is a concretewalk (it is not a boardwalk since it is not made of boards) along the beaches separating them from a long line of high-rise hotels designed to give the maximum number of people a view of the ocean from their room.
There was a bunch of rambunctious teenagers or young adults there and they filled up the swimming pool. The most interesting things there were the signs that say spiral lightningstroke sharp !! with a cross over it indicating "no". In other words, no cursing or using foul language. To me it is a commentary on American culture, especially that of young people that signs are required that are like this. Other signs use words to say that no obscene language, sexual behavior and so forth is allowed on the streets, and also that violation of the law is prohibited. Huhh? Where in this large world of ours is it ever permitted? That would be a contradiction.
The conference featured two contests: a table topics contest and a 5-7 minute speech contest. In the table topics contest a topic is given. This year it is: What is your road like? That is an interesting question. I say in my case that it started straight, had to detour and led me to being lost in the woods. Others came up with their own answers, including some with a circuitous route (rhymes with "clout") and some with a straight route (rhymes with "boot") in which the person knew what he was going to do. The 5-7 minute speech (or International Speech) contest included one speaker decrying the human tendency to keep score. They did a wrong to us so we got to do it back to them. Give unto them as you would have them give unto you. They entertained us so we got to entertain them. The speaker debunked this notion and suggested that doing what you honestly want is better than trying to keep score. However, Toastmasters, with all of its point systems, including that for Distinguished Club, Distinguished District, and so forth, notoriously keeps score on everything. Maybe Toastmasters is not that healthy.
I say join Toastmasters, improve your speaking and leadership skills, and forget the points.
2004/04/27
Do Not Pledge to WCVE
One of the blessings of our lives is public radio, including PBS, NPR, and Marketplace. You can hear classical music any time of the day, but the news programs are what make public radio stand out. The Morning Edition and All Things Considered broadcast news in a dispassionate voice without all the hype of the standard media. They broadcast news of unusual interest, such as one man's unusual replies to telemarketers or why Google has been such a big success over the years. I listen to Morning Edition every morning when I go to work.
So you would think I would contribute to public radio? Not WCVE, 88.9 MHz. WCVE is the PBS and NPR affiliate in the Richmond, Virginia area. Like all these enterprises, WCVE has undertaken a pledge drive. However, they have done it in such a way as to prevent me from hearing what I want to hear on public radio. This week, when I tune in to WCVE in the morning, I get not Morning Edition but station people campaigning it up. I did not turn on public radio to hear talk about how much I should contribute to them, or especially the little ditties that Sue Wood has come up with about winning a thermos if you pledge. I turn it on to hear the news stories of NPR. The station has prevented me from hearing these stories clearly. I can still hear them, but I have to tune in to WHRV instead at 89.5, which broadcasts from the Tidewater region. I can hear it but it is staticky and occasionally a station at 89.7 interferes greatly. I think it is OK for WCVE to carry out a pledge drive, but one or two sentences between each segment is better than blotting out huge segments of news time.
Because of this I will not contribute or pledge to WCVE this year. I urge readers from the Richmond-Petersburg area not to contribute to WCVE until they stop campaigning it up on air time. So far the Tidewater stations WHRO and WHRV have not campaigned out any news that I wanted to hear. Therefore they will get my public radio contribution this year. I urge those people who want to contribute to public radio but who do not want to support WCVE's campaigning policy to contribute instead to WHRO and WHRV.
One of the blessings of our lives is public radio, including PBS, NPR, and Marketplace. You can hear classical music any time of the day, but the news programs are what make public radio stand out. The Morning Edition and All Things Considered broadcast news in a dispassionate voice without all the hype of the standard media. They broadcast news of unusual interest, such as one man's unusual replies to telemarketers or why Google has been such a big success over the years. I listen to Morning Edition every morning when I go to work.
So you would think I would contribute to public radio? Not WCVE, 88.9 MHz. WCVE is the PBS and NPR affiliate in the Richmond, Virginia area. Like all these enterprises, WCVE has undertaken a pledge drive. However, they have done it in such a way as to prevent me from hearing what I want to hear on public radio. This week, when I tune in to WCVE in the morning, I get not Morning Edition but station people campaigning it up. I did not turn on public radio to hear talk about how much I should contribute to them, or especially the little ditties that Sue Wood has come up with about winning a thermos if you pledge. I turn it on to hear the news stories of NPR. The station has prevented me from hearing these stories clearly. I can still hear them, but I have to tune in to WHRV instead at 89.5, which broadcasts from the Tidewater region. I can hear it but it is staticky and occasionally a station at 89.7 interferes greatly. I think it is OK for WCVE to carry out a pledge drive, but one or two sentences between each segment is better than blotting out huge segments of news time.
Because of this I will not contribute or pledge to WCVE this year. I urge readers from the Richmond-Petersburg area not to contribute to WCVE until they stop campaigning it up on air time. So far the Tidewater stations WHRO and WHRV have not campaigned out any news that I wanted to hear. Therefore they will get my public radio contribution this year. I urge those people who want to contribute to public radio but who do not want to support WCVE's campaigning policy to contribute instead to WHRO and WHRV.
2004/04/26
Osprey Nest at Kiptopeke
Last weekend I went to a convention of mathematicians in Salisbury, MD. I took the Chesapeake Bay Bridge Tunnel to get from the Tidewater area to the tip of the Eastern Shore. Shortly after this, I went to Kiptopeke State Park. This is on the western side of the Eastern Shore, and consists of a trail, a picnic area, and a place where one can fish and go boating. I went to the harbor there, and found a wide wooden piling jutting from the water, close to me on the dock. I saw a strange bird there and took a picture of it, although my best shot, of one standing on the piling, was ruined by a passing boat; the birds all flew away. But then one bird went upon a nest built of sticks; evidently a female setting on her eggs or brood. I got out my tripod and binoculars and took a picture through the binoculars. This came out beautifully, and when I got home and could study the bird book at some length, I found that the bird was an osprey. I could tell because of the black band on its head and its white breast. Ospreys once were made endangered by real estate developments encroaching on its habitats and by the use of the pesticide DDT. The DDT went up the food chain and concentrated in the ospreys. They are coming back, thanks to that ban, and are fairly common on the Delmarva Peninsula, but still it was a thrill to see one.
Last weekend I went to a convention of mathematicians in Salisbury, MD. I took the Chesapeake Bay Bridge Tunnel to get from the Tidewater area to the tip of the Eastern Shore. Shortly after this, I went to Kiptopeke State Park. This is on the western side of the Eastern Shore, and consists of a trail, a picnic area, and a place where one can fish and go boating. I went to the harbor there, and found a wide wooden piling jutting from the water, close to me on the dock. I saw a strange bird there and took a picture of it, although my best shot, of one standing on the piling, was ruined by a passing boat; the birds all flew away. But then one bird went upon a nest built of sticks; evidently a female setting on her eggs or brood. I got out my tripod and binoculars and took a picture through the binoculars. This came out beautifully, and when I got home and could study the bird book at some length, I found that the bird was an osprey. I could tell because of the black band on its head and its white breast. Ospreys once were made endangered by real estate developments encroaching on its habitats and by the use of the pesticide DDT. The DDT went up the food chain and concentrated in the ospreys. They are coming back, thanks to that ban, and are fairly common on the Delmarva Peninsula, but still it was a thrill to see one.
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