Last Friday I went out in the cold to the Science Museum of Virginia, along with other Richmond Astronomical Society members to show the public the stars. It was the best night for stargazing in years. Despite the light
pollution of Richmond, we were able to see lots of stars with the naked
eye, down to about 3rd magnitude, and solar system bodies and stars both were spectacular. Saturn produced its usual assemblage of rings that are the highlight for many visitors, and the Moon was in an especially good phase. The alignment on my telescope on Vega and Capella was especially good, perhaps because I was able to get Polaris in the guide scope, and because Vega and Capella were near the horizon and far apart. Objects stayed in my telescope reasonably well, despite non-fresh batteries. It was the first time that I can remember that I was able to get the Andromeda Galaxy in my telescope at a Skywatch. It showed a rather unexciting fuzzy light ball. I got the Orion Nebula in the telescope as well, and with my light pollution filter, the details of the nebula really stood out. And to top it off, a -5 magnitude bolide, brighter than Venus, shot through the constellation Gemini.
We tried looking at the street with the light pollution filter. The bright yellow hat of Arby's became a dull red, and McDonald's yellow arches also turned a dull red. The peachy streetlights turned much dimmer, as the filter was especially aimed at stopping that light. If streets were like that, we could see more stars. People need to stop blaring their lights.
A Journey through Blogrealm
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2004/12/20
Yuletide fantasy run
I made my Yuletide fantasy run through my development on Saturday night, 2004 December 18. This year some brilliant displays of the past few years were gone. But there were some others to replace them. None of them showed that much originality. One showed an outline Texas on their lawn. Another used red candles instead of blue ones. But we use red candles, three at a time in our windows. The prize this year goes to the end of my street. There it was. The Great Walking Stickman of Yuletide. Somone put lights way up the trunk and some of the branches of a tall, thin tree, and the entire thing was five stories high and looked like a gigantic stalk of a man with stick arms outreached. I have never seen anything like that before. What did I have this year? I switched my white and red lights, to show a red bush out on our lawn. I don't mean the one in the White House. I mean a bush bush with red bulbs lighting it up. And I constructed a huge triangle in a large bush, about two stories high. If I put another triangle into this design, I can come up with a Virginia. Maybe I'll try that.
2004/11/26
Injured Bird on Thanksgiving: Followup
I will not be going to a rehab center today. Unfortunately, the bird died overnight.
2004/11/25
Injured Bird on Thanksgiving
Today is Thanksgiving. What is Thanksgiving? It is where we thank ourselves for all that we have gotten throughout the year. We feast out and take a holiday. But things happen even on holidays, and not every being is blessed on Thanksgiving. Perhaps instead of thanking, we need to go out and make a being thankful of us.
Today something like that happened. Late in the afternoon, as the sun was about to set, I saw a northern or slate-colored junco (also called a snowbird) waddling around the feeding pole, picking up food. I wondered if it was OK. It seemed to have something sticking out of its side, maybe a feather. So I went outside to see if it would fly away. It didn't. It ran away from me, and it could not go that fast either. So now I had an injured bird to take care of.
I called Anne up at work - she is a nurse who has to work at Thanksgiving working hard to give thanks to others - and she said to put it in a box and put it on the freezer in the garage. So I did, poking holes in the box and not giving it food or water, as some web sites recommend that I don't. I called up some people from the local Audubon society. Late at night, someone gave me the name of rehab center counselors that I can call tomorrow. But I don't think they would do anything tonight. Why lose sleep and ruin a Thanksgiving because of a small bird? But this bird was in need of help and not getting it because we are celebrating our own thanks. We need to stop thinking about thanking, especially thanking some supposed Creator or God up above, and start thinking about giving thanks. This bird needed it.
So I will call tomorrow and find somewhere to take the bird, and hope it can be nursed to health. I heard that birds are hard to take care of. What could have caused the injury? One theory is that it was on the feeder getting food when a squirrel tried to get on it. It was one of these feeders that spin around and whop a squirrel off if it gets on. It could have spun the junco off and slammed it into something. It could have flown into our window or the feeder pole. I think the most likely cause was a cat. The neighbors let their cats wander all over the place. In so doing, they destroy many songbirds a year. Many authorities say that cats are destructive and should be kept inside. I chase them off, but maybe a talking to the owners would be good - mention the injured bird.
Tomorrow we will take the bird to a rehab place and hope for the best.
Today something like that happened. Late in the afternoon, as the sun was about to set, I saw a northern or slate-colored junco (also called a snowbird) waddling around the feeding pole, picking up food. I wondered if it was OK. It seemed to have something sticking out of its side, maybe a feather. So I went outside to see if it would fly away. It didn't. It ran away from me, and it could not go that fast either. So now I had an injured bird to take care of.
I called Anne up at work - she is a nurse who has to work at Thanksgiving working hard to give thanks to others - and she said to put it in a box and put it on the freezer in the garage. So I did, poking holes in the box and not giving it food or water, as some web sites recommend that I don't. I called up some people from the local Audubon society. Late at night, someone gave me the name of rehab center counselors that I can call tomorrow. But I don't think they would do anything tonight. Why lose sleep and ruin a Thanksgiving because of a small bird? But this bird was in need of help and not getting it because we are celebrating our own thanks. We need to stop thinking about thanking, especially thanking some supposed Creator or God up above, and start thinking about giving thanks. This bird needed it.
So I will call tomorrow and find somewhere to take the bird, and hope it can be nursed to health. I heard that birds are hard to take care of. What could have caused the injury? One theory is that it was on the feeder getting food when a squirrel tried to get on it. It was one of these feeders that spin around and whop a squirrel off if it gets on. It could have spun the junco off and slammed it into something. It could have flown into our window or the feeder pole. I think the most likely cause was a cat. The neighbors let their cats wander all over the place. In so doing, they destroy many songbirds a year. Many authorities say that cats are destructive and should be kept inside. I chase them off, but maybe a talking to the owners would be good - mention the injured bird.
Tomorrow we will take the bird to a rehab place and hope for the best.
2004/11/20
Halloween 2004
This year's Halloween had a few unusual features. The first is that the first trick-or-treaters (3 of them) came at 17:41 (5:41 pm), beating the previous record of 17:48, and were followed only a few minutes later by another group of 3 trick-or-treaters. So they started coming early. There were fewer of them this year, 54 compared to last year's 70. I have come up with a combined graph of these trick-or-treaters, and they indicate two peaks over the past 8 years of trick-or-treaters. One of these is at 18:22 and another is at 19:27. Apparently they like to come during dinner time. One interesting characteristic of this year's trick-or-treaters: an abnormally large number of them were adolescent males, between 11 and 16 years old. I don't know why this age group wants to go around trick-or-treating, unless they are out roving around getting their kicks or something. Or maybe these kids just don't want to grow up. Numbers of trick-or-treaters have definitely gone down since 2001, the year of Planeattack. Apparently people are more afraid and security-conscious and the result is fewer trick-or-treaters. Maybe they go to organized Halloween parties instead. It doesn't matter. It's just a tradition.
2004/11/17
K-Mart and Sears
It came as a blockbuster early today. K-Mart and Sears were going to merge. No, actually, little old nearly bankrupt K-Mart was going to buy Goliath Sears. This really seemed weird. But the two companies apparently complement each other. The new corporation will have K-Mart's real estate in places away from malls and Sears' tradition of quality. They are going to call the company Sears Holdings. Holdings? That seems trite to me. Is the CEO of Sears going to pick up and hold the CEO of K-Mart?
I think they deserve a better name than that. One immediate idea is K-Sears, but that seems too ordinary. Perhaps S-Mart would be better because that would be smart. S-mart, don't you get it? Shop Smart at S-Mart! But maybe that seems too much like PetSmart. Or how about K-Sears? Or K-Mart, Roebuck and Co.? Or K-Mart, Sears, Roebuck and Co.? Or maybe KSR corporation? Uh-uh. That is getting a little hackneyed again. How about Mart-K-Sears, as in The Three Mart-K-Sears? Or maybe Mouse-K-Sears? Em-Aye-Cee, Kay-Ee-Wye… Uh-oh. I see another merger coming.
But if not the name, maybe this merger will come with interesting subnames. For example, K-Mart sells Martha Stewart products, and Sears recently purchased Land's End. So combine these two together and the result is Martha's End. Or maybe we will fix our houses with Martha Stewart Craftsman tools or wash our clothes in our Martha Kenmore washer. Or maybe call the store K'Mart in honor of Apostrophe, one of Sear's product lines. Or how about the Sears Tower? Paint that blue and get The Blue Tower, or the Blue Light Tower. That won't work. The tallest building in the US is the Great Tower of Chicago, not the Sears Tower, because Sears no longer owns it, and so Sears can't paint it blue.
Of course none of this will happen. We will go to our Sears and K-Marts as always, although we may see Craftsman Tools in K-Mart or Martha Stewart products in Sears, and we may see a host of Sears outside the malls. But remember that a titanic merger occurred today between two retail giants. Let's hope that's titanic as in colossal instead of as in blub, blub, blub.
I think they deserve a better name than that. One immediate idea is K-Sears, but that seems too ordinary. Perhaps S-Mart would be better because that would be smart. S-mart, don't you get it? Shop Smart at S-Mart! But maybe that seems too much like PetSmart. Or how about K-Sears? Or K-Mart, Roebuck and Co.? Or K-Mart, Sears, Roebuck and Co.? Or maybe KSR corporation? Uh-uh. That is getting a little hackneyed again. How about Mart-K-Sears, as in The Three Mart-K-Sears? Or maybe Mouse-K-Sears? Em-Aye-Cee, Kay-Ee-Wye… Uh-oh. I see another merger coming.
But if not the name, maybe this merger will come with interesting subnames. For example, K-Mart sells Martha Stewart products, and Sears recently purchased Land's End. So combine these two together and the result is Martha's End. Or maybe we will fix our houses with Martha Stewart Craftsman tools or wash our clothes in our Martha Kenmore washer. Or maybe call the store K'Mart in honor of Apostrophe, one of Sear's product lines. Or how about the Sears Tower? Paint that blue and get The Blue Tower, or the Blue Light Tower. That won't work. The tallest building in the US is the Great Tower of Chicago, not the Sears Tower, because Sears no longer owns it, and so Sears can't paint it blue.
Of course none of this will happen. We will go to our Sears and K-Marts as always, although we may see Craftsman Tools in K-Mart or Martha Stewart products in Sears, and we may see a host of Sears outside the malls. But remember that a titanic merger occurred today between two retail giants. Let's hope that's titanic as in colossal instead of as in blub, blub, blub.
2004/11/16
Flipping Digits
Yesterday my van's mileage was 99982 or something. I drove to work, and then when I went out to go home at night, the van's odometer stared me in the face with 100000. Yes, the van's odometer flipped from 9s to 0s, and the reading added a digit. I have seen the flip occur on a couple of other cars that I have owned.
Flipping digits happen because of our system of enumeration. Before the flip, everything was at 9s because 9 is the greatest digit, one less than ten. It is one less than the base. When that happens all that has been built up to that point gets cashed in for the raise of a digit on the left, or in this case, an additional digit. In a sense, it is a moment of achievement.
In 2003 I achieved three different Toastmasters awards, namely an Advanced Toastmasters Bronze (ATM-B), a Competent Leader (CL) award, and a Competent Toastmaster (CTM) award. This happened because I had two or three manuals each with about two or three speeches to do. I completed all of these that year, and like the 9s on the odometer, I flipped a huge collection of achievements.
Now I am at all zeroes, trying to start all over again. That is what life is all about. Reach an achievement or group of achievements, then start all over again on your next journey. When was the last time you flipped zeroes in your life?
Flipping digits happen because of our system of enumeration. Before the flip, everything was at 9s because 9 is the greatest digit, one less than ten. It is one less than the base. When that happens all that has been built up to that point gets cashed in for the raise of a digit on the left, or in this case, an additional digit. In a sense, it is a moment of achievement.
In 2003 I achieved three different Toastmasters awards, namely an Advanced Toastmasters Bronze (ATM-B), a Competent Leader (CL) award, and a Competent Toastmaster (CTM) award. This happened because I had two or three manuals each with about two or three speeches to do. I completed all of these that year, and like the 9s on the odometer, I flipped a huge collection of achievements.
Now I am at all zeroes, trying to start all over again. That is what life is all about. Reach an achievement or group of achievements, then start all over again on your next journey. When was the last time you flipped zeroes in your life?
2004/11/14
Sitting Next to your Preferred One
I recently came up with an interesting mathematical puzzle today. It is based on some of these conventions and dinner parties that I go to. The problem is this. There is a big banquet at the end of the convention. There is a special someone that you want to sit next to. Perhaps you're in love with this person. Perhaps this person has the key to your next job. Perhaps this person is simply someone you like to sit next to. We will call this person Connie (for "convention").
Most typical banquets feature some 10-20 tables seating 10 each, for a total of 100-200 banqueters. You know that Connie is going to appear at this banquet. So when do you sit down? You don't want to be the first to sit down, as then you have no control over who sits next to you. It's whoever wants to sit next to you, and that might not be Connie. You don't want to be the last person, either. Then there will only one seat left, and that is then yours, and you have no control over who is sitting there either.
The optimal solution is to sit somewhere in the middle, but where? I will measure this by the percentage of people who have seated by the time you choose your seat.
To illustrate this problem, I will assume that everyone is seated in one big circle instead, arbitrarily large. Then you want to get into one of the two seats next to Connie. Suppose you choose time x to sit down. Then the probability is x that Connie is already seated. In that case, the probability that you can sit next to her is 1-x2, as x2 is the probability that both seats are occupied (for an infinite circle - for a finite set, replacement needs to be taken into account). So this makes a term x(1-x2). In the 1-x chance that Connie is not seated, the probability is near zero that she will sit next to you (unless she is attracted to you, in which case it is certain she will sit next to you, but I am not assuming that is the case; also this assumes an infinite circle or strip of seats). Therefore the probability of getting a seat next to her is x(1-x2). The method here is to differentiate and set equal to zero, and solve for x. When you do that, you get the optimal x to be the square root of 1/3, which is about 0.577. So this mean you will wait until 57% of the people are seated, then you will go in and sit down.
This would make for an interesting problem to work out. I have assumed an infinite strip, but what happens in finite cases? The size of the tables makes a difference; if there are 10 to a table, then Connie can sit anywhere at that table and you can still get to her table. Some seats may be more valuable than others; e.g., next to her rather than across the table from her. And what if you want to sit next to a group of people, and what if the people them cluster into groups or cliques? And once someone works out all those cases, are they prepared to use it at a real banquet?
Stay tuned.
I recently came up with an interesting mathematical puzzle today. It is based on some of these conventions and dinner parties that I go to. The problem is this. There is a big banquet at the end of the convention. There is a special someone that you want to sit next to. Perhaps you're in love with this person. Perhaps this person has the key to your next job. Perhaps this person is simply someone you like to sit next to. We will call this person Connie (for "convention").
Most typical banquets feature some 10-20 tables seating 10 each, for a total of 100-200 banqueters. You know that Connie is going to appear at this banquet. So when do you sit down? You don't want to be the first to sit down, as then you have no control over who sits next to you. It's whoever wants to sit next to you, and that might not be Connie. You don't want to be the last person, either. Then there will only one seat left, and that is then yours, and you have no control over who is sitting there either.
The optimal solution is to sit somewhere in the middle, but where? I will measure this by the percentage of people who have seated by the time you choose your seat.
To illustrate this problem, I will assume that everyone is seated in one big circle instead, arbitrarily large. Then you want to get into one of the two seats next to Connie. Suppose you choose time x to sit down. Then the probability is x that Connie is already seated. In that case, the probability that you can sit next to her is 1-x2, as x2 is the probability that both seats are occupied (for an infinite circle - for a finite set, replacement needs to be taken into account). So this makes a term x(1-x2). In the 1-x chance that Connie is not seated, the probability is near zero that she will sit next to you (unless she is attracted to you, in which case it is certain she will sit next to you, but I am not assuming that is the case; also this assumes an infinite circle or strip of seats). Therefore the probability of getting a seat next to her is x(1-x2). The method here is to differentiate and set equal to zero, and solve for x. When you do that, you get the optimal x to be the square root of 1/3, which is about 0.577. So this mean you will wait until 57% of the people are seated, then you will go in and sit down.
This would make for an interesting problem to work out. I have assumed an infinite strip, but what happens in finite cases? The size of the tables makes a difference; if there are 10 to a table, then Connie can sit anywhere at that table and you can still get to her table. Some seats may be more valuable than others; e.g., next to her rather than across the table from her. And what if you want to sit next to a group of people, and what if the people them cluster into groups or cliques? And once someone works out all those cases, are they prepared to use it at a real banquet?
Stay tuned.
2004/10/03
Northwestern beats Ohio State
I am not much of a fan on football, and regard it as irritating when it bombs out news and other programs on TV. But I am a graduate alumnus of Northwestern University, back in a day when I attended all the football games in the early 1970s. So I always follow the exploits of Northwestern's football team every year. To me they are one of the most exciting teams to watch. They have been involved in more cliffhangers and heartstoppers than any other team I can think of in any sport. Their cliffhangers include a rallying 17-16 victory over Michigan in which the winning field goal was scored with only a minute and a half to play, and where the first attempt at this field goal was ruled invalid by a referee, and a game where Wisconsin led by 30-27 near the end, and, for some reason trying to extend that score in the final few minutes, instead fumbled and allowed Northwestern to score and win. They would have been better off running out the clock.
This weekend's game with Ohio State, the big bad bucks (eyes) from Columbus, was one such example. I did not expect it. This was one of Ohio State's better years. They were Number 7 in the nation. This was not one of Northwestern's better years, having lost a bunch of games. I expected a slaughter. Instead, Northwestern kept up with Ohio State, not letting them score and scoring themselves on occasion, and even built up a lead early in the fourth quarter. Then Ohio State scored a touchdown and a field goal to tie it. Maybe they were going to win after all. The game ended with a tie, however.
So a sudden death overtime was played. Here is a summary of the plays, because I think they are brief and almost poetic:
Ohio State rushes 3 yards to the NW 21.
Ohio State incomplete pass to the left.
Ohio State incomplete pass to the right.
Ohio State tries field goal: FAILED.
Northwestern rushes 1 yard to OS 24.
Northwestern rushes 21 yards to OS 3.
Northwestern rushes 2 yards to OS 1.
Northwestern rushes 1 yard: TOUCHDOWN!
And that's the way the ball bounces. Maybe Northwestern will win a few more like that this season.
This weekend's game with Ohio State, the big bad bucks (eyes) from Columbus, was one such example. I did not expect it. This was one of Ohio State's better years. They were Number 7 in the nation. This was not one of Northwestern's better years, having lost a bunch of games. I expected a slaughter. Instead, Northwestern kept up with Ohio State, not letting them score and scoring themselves on occasion, and even built up a lead early in the fourth quarter. Then Ohio State scored a touchdown and a field goal to tie it. Maybe they were going to win after all. The game ended with a tie, however.
So a sudden death overtime was played. Here is a summary of the plays, because I think they are brief and almost poetic:
Ohio State rushes 3 yards to the NW 21.
Ohio State incomplete pass to the left.
Ohio State incomplete pass to the right.
Ohio State tries field goal: FAILED.
Northwestern rushes 1 yard to OS 24.
Northwestern rushes 21 yards to OS 3.
Northwestern rushes 2 yards to OS 1.
Northwestern rushes 1 yard: TOUCHDOWN!
And that's the way the ball bounces. Maybe Northwestern will win a few more like that this season.
2004/09/20
Google Test
Sooner or later, I will retire from my present job and so will want to get another job, as I am not ready to sit outside every day watching the leaves flutter. So I will make out job applications and write resumes. Well today I saw what could be the most interesting job application of them all, Google's. It wa in my copy of Communications, the primary periodical of the Association of Computing Machinery, of which I am a member. OK, Google, you can spider this and everyone can Google what I say all over the place. But Google has really stepped out of the box. In fact, they have stepped out of a googol boxes. They have constructed the Google Labs Aptitude Test, or GLAT. It is a series of math and word puzzles, along with some essay and pictorial questions concering Google the company itself. It finally concludes by asking what the applicant would do if he applied to Google.
A most interesting test. If job applications had looked like this earlier in my life, I would have gotten more job offers than I have had, since this was the thing I was really good at. But wouldn't this deny to the Google people things they really need to know such as work history? Do they really need to know that? What of the work history? What does that say about whether the applicant will do in the present job? Perhaps this thing could come out more in the interview, when the applicant is given the opportunity to provide details. But I don't really think a work history on an application really helps the interviewers. However, a test like Google's may very well pick out those people who would work well at Google. Something good's going on with Google. Over and over again, they have come up with things that have really improved the worth of the web: language translating (although this is somewhat faulty), search news, search newsgroups, and search places to shop. Every one is a blockbuster success. So they must have some brainy guys and gals working for them, and I think Google is trying to get more such people. However, this test is amenable to cheating, but I still think it is a step in the right direction. Other employers, take note. Change your job search procedures, and watch your profits soar!
A most interesting test. If job applications had looked like this earlier in my life, I would have gotten more job offers than I have had, since this was the thing I was really good at. But wouldn't this deny to the Google people things they really need to know such as work history? Do they really need to know that? What of the work history? What does that say about whether the applicant will do in the present job? Perhaps this thing could come out more in the interview, when the applicant is given the opportunity to provide details. But I don't really think a work history on an application really helps the interviewers. However, a test like Google's may very well pick out those people who would work well at Google. Something good's going on with Google. Over and over again, they have come up with things that have really improved the worth of the web: language translating (although this is somewhat faulty), search news, search newsgroups, and search places to shop. Every one is a blockbuster success. So they must have some brainy guys and gals working for them, and I think Google is trying to get more such people. However, this test is amenable to cheating, but I still think it is a step in the right direction. Other employers, take note. Change your job search procedures, and watch your profits soar!
2004/09/15
Woops! - Ladies Chain
Today I looked at the mathematical structure of contra dancing. That link to "mathematical structure" refers to an article I wrote for my mathematics page. It shows how the mathematical structure of contra dancing is like the mathematical structure of changing a mattress, and it ends with a quilt based on contra dancing patterns.
One of the moves of contra dancing is "ladies chain". This is a step where the two ladies in a foursome come to the center and allemande around, going to the opposite side, whereupon the opposite man twirls them around 360 degrees. The result is that the two ladies have switched position, while the two men stay the same. I found an error, or at least a questionable point, in my paper, which makes for an interesting conundrum or paradox.
The part of mathematics that I relate contra dancing to is group theory. A group is a set with an operation (as plus or times) such that the group is closed (adding or multiplying group elements always results in group elements, is associative ( (x*y)*z=x*(y*z) ), has an identity element, as 1, where 1 times anything is that same thing again, and inverses, so that for each a there is an a' such that a*a' = 1. Some operations are easily seen to be associative. For example, let x, y, and z be moves on a Rubik's Cube. then (x*y)*z and x*(y*z) both mean do x, then do y, and then do z, with the only difference being a trivial linguistic difference. So therefore the Rubik's cube group is associative.
So I thought surely contra dancing moves are associative. After all, (x*y)*z and x*(y*z) both mean dance x, then dance y, then dance z. So the two should be the same. No. They are not. It turns out that if y is ladies chain, and x switches the men and women around, then the two are different!
I will explain this in a sequel to my contra dance article, but the idea is this. Imagine a foursome in a square, and from left to right top, then from left to right on the bottom, label the dancers A, B, C, and D, in positions 1, 2, 3, and 4. Then A and D are ladies, and B and C are men. If they do a ladies chain, then A and D trade places. These are in places 1 and 4. But suppose they quarter turn left first. Then the women are in 2 and 3, and ladies chain trades 2 and 3 instead. This means that in (x*y)*z, then y trades 1 and 4, while in x*(y*z), y trades 2 and 3. The definition of y depends on the grouping of the terms. This results in the non-associativity.
I emailed a colleague about this, Larry Copes. He told me that a ladies chain when the ladies are in positions 2 and 3 is not often seen. I thought about it. It is a mirror image of the usual one! It violates the principle of "lady on the right". So most contra dances seen on dance floors do not have such ladies chains. So as far as movements on the dance floor are concerned, they are associative. But that is not good enough for a mathematical group. There one should be able to take any two elements and multiply them. I suppose the way to handle this is to regard ladies chain and gypsy once-and-a-half (which switches ladies 2 and 3) as the same mathematical group element. Then the group of contra dancing is D4, as I say in my article.
One of the moves of contra dancing is "ladies chain". This is a step where the two ladies in a foursome come to the center and allemande around, going to the opposite side, whereupon the opposite man twirls them around 360 degrees. The result is that the two ladies have switched position, while the two men stay the same. I found an error, or at least a questionable point, in my paper, which makes for an interesting conundrum or paradox.
The part of mathematics that I relate contra dancing to is group theory. A group is a set with an operation (as plus or times) such that the group is closed (adding or multiplying group elements always results in group elements, is associative ( (x*y)*z=x*(y*z) ), has an identity element, as 1, where 1 times anything is that same thing again, and inverses, so that for each a there is an a' such that a*a' = 1. Some operations are easily seen to be associative. For example, let x, y, and z be moves on a Rubik's Cube. then (x*y)*z and x*(y*z) both mean do x, then do y, and then do z, with the only difference being a trivial linguistic difference. So therefore the Rubik's cube group is associative.
So I thought surely contra dancing moves are associative. After all, (x*y)*z and x*(y*z) both mean dance x, then dance y, then dance z. So the two should be the same. No. They are not. It turns out that if y is ladies chain, and x switches the men and women around, then the two are different!
I will explain this in a sequel to my contra dance article, but the idea is this. Imagine a foursome in a square, and from left to right top, then from left to right on the bottom, label the dancers A, B, C, and D, in positions 1, 2, 3, and 4. Then A and D are ladies, and B and C are men. If they do a ladies chain, then A and D trade places. These are in places 1 and 4. But suppose they quarter turn left first. Then the women are in 2 and 3, and ladies chain trades 2 and 3 instead. This means that in (x*y)*z, then y trades 1 and 4, while in x*(y*z), y trades 2 and 3. The definition of y depends on the grouping of the terms. This results in the non-associativity.
I emailed a colleague about this, Larry Copes. He told me that a ladies chain when the ladies are in positions 2 and 3 is not often seen. I thought about it. It is a mirror image of the usual one! It violates the principle of "lady on the right". So most contra dances seen on dance floors do not have such ladies chains. So as far as movements on the dance floor are concerned, they are associative. But that is not good enough for a mathematical group. There one should be able to take any two elements and multiply them. I suppose the way to handle this is to regard ladies chain and gypsy once-and-a-half (which switches ladies 2 and 3) as the same mathematical group element. Then the group of contra dancing is D4, as I say in my article.
Hurricanes Hurricanes and more Hurricanes
I have not talked too much about hurricanes lately, but this has been some season. Since early July, I have been tracking down some hurricane or tropical storm somewhere, even if it is only in modelspace, such as the infamous SUUSI Hurricane that ruined SUUSI this year by striking Virginia Tech with 10 inch rains and 50 mph winds on its third day, and also that did not exist at all. It was a mere figment of modelspace. Some runs of the Global Forecasting System (GFS) showed this hurricane striking Charleston, SC and hitting western Virginia, but after two or three days, it completely disappeared from the runs and we had beautiful weather for SUUSI.
But most of the other storms I have been tracking have been real storms that have caused some real trouble. Charley and Frances X-ed out Florida with their tracks, and now the Gulf Coast is being hit by Ivan the Terrible as I speak. It's hurricane after hurricane after hurricane, Alex, Bonnie, Charley, Frances, Gaston, Ivan, and Jeanne, plus Karl and Lisa in modelspace. Gaston already has given us the second worst storm that I can remember here, and it was a mere tropical storm.
So the question is, will Ivan and Jeanne strike here? A Virginia DOT meteorologist says no. Neither will affect us. The forecaster at WxRisk.com also says that both will miss. He says Jeanne will be a Florida hurricane. Certainly I don't think Ivan will strike here. He is going straight for the Great Smoky Mountains, and there he will die. He may give us some flung-out spiral arm rain, as Frances did. But that's all. But what about Jeanne? Although WxRisk thinks this is a Gulf hurricane, MillenniumWeather thinks it's headed for the Carolinas. What do the models say?
No model goes out far enough to see where it will strike, except GFS. They do show her approaching North Carolina, but no farther than that. GFS does show what happens to her, and this is really peculiar, almost comical. GFS says that Jeanne will hit Florida twice. After Charley, Francis, and Ivan, this will make for five hurricane strikes this season for the beleaguered state, out of only four storms. It shows Jeanne going out in to the Atlantic, approaching the Outer Banks, but then a huge H of a High bombs out of Canada (the season's first cold snap) and stands right in front of Jeanne and says "STOP!". The big H then pushes Jeanne back to where she came from, and then towards the southern tip of Florida. Not only that, but the 18Z run of it shows it being pushed farther than that, into the Gulf of Mexico, where it hits the Yucatan. The idea of a hurricane going backwards seems comical to me. But then when this big beautiful Autumn High finally leaves, the hurricane then turns around and heads east northeast, hitting Florida a second time and then going out to sea in the Atlantic to spend its last days spinning fish. In my opinion, I don't think GFS knows what to make of this tremendous battle between a strong high ridge and a hurricane. I think the strong high will force Jeanne to move west northwest and hit Florida and go into the Gulf, as WxRisk says. But I am still going to watch this storm.
But most of the other storms I have been tracking have been real storms that have caused some real trouble. Charley and Frances X-ed out Florida with their tracks, and now the Gulf Coast is being hit by Ivan the Terrible as I speak. It's hurricane after hurricane after hurricane, Alex, Bonnie, Charley, Frances, Gaston, Ivan, and Jeanne, plus Karl and Lisa in modelspace. Gaston already has given us the second worst storm that I can remember here, and it was a mere tropical storm.
So the question is, will Ivan and Jeanne strike here? A Virginia DOT meteorologist says no. Neither will affect us. The forecaster at WxRisk.com also says that both will miss. He says Jeanne will be a Florida hurricane. Certainly I don't think Ivan will strike here. He is going straight for the Great Smoky Mountains, and there he will die. He may give us some flung-out spiral arm rain, as Frances did. But that's all. But what about Jeanne? Although WxRisk thinks this is a Gulf hurricane, MillenniumWeather thinks it's headed for the Carolinas. What do the models say?
No model goes out far enough to see where it will strike, except GFS. They do show her approaching North Carolina, but no farther than that. GFS does show what happens to her, and this is really peculiar, almost comical. GFS says that Jeanne will hit Florida twice. After Charley, Francis, and Ivan, this will make for five hurricane strikes this season for the beleaguered state, out of only four storms. It shows Jeanne going out in to the Atlantic, approaching the Outer Banks, but then a huge H of a High bombs out of Canada (the season's first cold snap) and stands right in front of Jeanne and says "STOP!". The big H then pushes Jeanne back to where she came from, and then towards the southern tip of Florida. Not only that, but the 18Z run of it shows it being pushed farther than that, into the Gulf of Mexico, where it hits the Yucatan. The idea of a hurricane going backwards seems comical to me. But then when this big beautiful Autumn High finally leaves, the hurricane then turns around and heads east northeast, hitting Florida a second time and then going out to sea in the Atlantic to spend its last days spinning fish. In my opinion, I don't think GFS knows what to make of this tremendous battle between a strong high ridge and a hurricane. I think the strong high will force Jeanne to move west northwest and hit Florida and go into the Gulf, as WxRisk says. But I am still going to watch this storm.
2004/09/07
Funny Hurricanes
Well now what is left of Frances is supposed to strike to the west of Richmond, Virginia, after devastating practically the entire state of Florida. Here's the situation now. There is another storm, Ivan, which is about to cross the Leeward Islands and has made a mess out of Grenada. The models all seem to say that the storm will turn to the north and head towards southern Florida. Not again. Only one model goes beyond this, the GFS, and that one says that the hurricane will follow a trough out into the Atlantic, then when a high goes out past it, it suddenly makes a left turn and plows into, well, at 00Z and 12Z into North Carolina, at 06Z into Nova Scotia, and at 18Z into extreme southeastern Virginia. So this is one to keep a watch of, to see if it will actually do this.
In the meantime I picked up these interesting tidbits about hurricanes from the various message boards and other places:
Ivan is going the wrong way. Russia is east.
Can we just put yellow caution tape along the entire state of Florida?
Hey, when Ivan makes that left turn out in the Atlantic into Virginia or North Carolina, it should put on its turn signal.
There goes the Florida economy for two years.
The Florida State Seminoles at Miami Hurricanes football team got postponed because of a hurricane. That's like a Tampa Bay game being postponed because of raids by buccaneers, a Green Bay game being postponed because the city sent them packing, or a Dallas game being postponed because a bunch of cowboys with their cattle ran onto the field dropping plops. I don't think Frances had any interest in joining the Miami football team.
The funniest of all that I met was when someone reported that NOAA had spotted an area of disturbed weather, a large wave, between the Azores and the Leeward islands, and that there is a chance of this developing into a tropical system. The first reaction of readers to this was "FISH!!!". And then someone displayed a cartoon of a boat with a fisherman on it, reeling in a fish over and over again. The idea of throwing the epithet "FISH" at tropical weather strikes me as being really funny. Of course it is short for "fishspinner", which means a storm that stays out at sea and does little more than spin fish around in circles.
Nevertheless, after experiencing Isabel last year, I never want to encounter any of these storms again.
In the meantime I picked up these interesting tidbits about hurricanes from the various message boards and other places:
Ivan is going the wrong way. Russia is east.
Can we just put yellow caution tape along the entire state of Florida?
Hey, when Ivan makes that left turn out in the Atlantic into Virginia or North Carolina, it should put on its turn signal.
There goes the Florida economy for two years.
The Florida State Seminoles at Miami Hurricanes football team got postponed because of a hurricane. That's like a Tampa Bay game being postponed because of raids by buccaneers, a Green Bay game being postponed because the city sent them packing, or a Dallas game being postponed because a bunch of cowboys with their cattle ran onto the field dropping plops. I don't think Frances had any interest in joining the Miami football team.
The funniest of all that I met was when someone reported that NOAA had spotted an area of disturbed weather, a large wave, between the Azores and the Leeward islands, and that there is a chance of this developing into a tropical system. The first reaction of readers to this was "FISH!!!". And then someone displayed a cartoon of a boat with a fisherman on it, reeling in a fish over and over again. The idea of throwing the epithet "FISH" at tropical weather strikes me as being really funny. Of course it is short for "fishspinner", which means a storm that stays out at sea and does little more than spin fish around in circles.
Nevertheless, after experiencing Isabel last year, I never want to encounter any of these storms again.
2004/09/04
Tough Hurricane Names
Ray McAllister of the Richmond Times-Dispatch came up with an interesting point about hurricane names. They're too nice for things that destroy buildings and lives with wind and rain. He says we don't need a Hurricane Frances, because Frances sounds like someone you would have tea with. This Frances, he says, is coming for no tea. Perhaps people would listen if it were Hurricane Fidel instead. Ray also suggests Hitler, Genghis Khan, and Godzilla for hurricane names. His article is at the Times-Dispatch web site. This link may become dead in a couple of weeks. Another blogger, A perfectly Cromulent Blog, also suggests using names like Hitler and Attila.
I note that I have been using names like this for decades to describe storms, but not hurricanes. I use them for snowstorms instead, for the very reasons that Cromulent and McAllister mention - nasty things do not deserve nice names. Here is a list of names I am using. The next snowstorm to strike the Richmond, Virginia area will be Snowstorm Warlock. Here are the previous ones:
Ares
Bluto (Massive winter storm of 1993 March 12)
Crimester
Devil
Evil
Fiend (Ice Storm of 1994)
Gargoyle (Blizzard of 1996)
Hades
Infidel
Jabba
King Cobra (Major Ice Storm of 1998)
Loki
Malo (Blizzard of 2000)
Nix
Ogre
Pouncer
Quagmire
Rat
Snake
Tarantula
Ungodly
Vixen (last 2-inch snowstorm we had)
And here is what's coming up this year:
Warlock (for the first snowstorm of 2004-2005)
X-Outer
Yuk
Zorra
These names should satisfy the criteria of McAllister and Cromulent! I am just hoping that Warlock does not hit us too badly.
I note that I have been using names like this for decades to describe storms, but not hurricanes. I use them for snowstorms instead, for the very reasons that Cromulent and McAllister mention - nasty things do not deserve nice names. Here is a list of names I am using. The next snowstorm to strike the Richmond, Virginia area will be Snowstorm Warlock. Here are the previous ones:
Ares
Bluto (Massive winter storm of 1993 March 12)
Crimester
Devil
Evil
Fiend (Ice Storm of 1994)
Gargoyle (Blizzard of 1996)
Hades
Infidel
Jabba
King Cobra (Major Ice Storm of 1998)
Loki
Malo (Blizzard of 2000)
Nix
Ogre
Pouncer
Quagmire
Rat
Snake
Tarantula
Ungodly
Vixen (last 2-inch snowstorm we had)
And here is what's coming up this year:
Warlock (for the first snowstorm of 2004-2005)
X-Outer
Yuk
Zorra
These names should satisfy the criteria of McAllister and Cromulent! I am just hoping that Warlock does not hit us too badly.
Ivan is in the act
There are now two storms out there: Frances and Ivan. Frances has nearly, but not quite, stalled just before hitting Fort Pierce, Florida. It now is forecast to go out into the Gulf of Mexico, reenter at Apalachicola, and come up Alabama and Tennessee, going by Memphis, Nashville, and Indianapolis. It has stalled so much now that some of the models, notably GFS, UKMET, and CMC have gone to the east, threatening to hit the western Virginia mountains. If that happens, Richmond will get massive river flooding, and it is already recovering from flooding from 11 inches of rain from a mere tropical storm Gaston. So we will have to wait for that.
But Frances has so occupied the attention of broadcasters and weather people that not a one is mentioning Ivan at all. Gary Gray does not mention it at all, and some of the models are suggesting this could be another Frances. So I will give my Ivan analysis after looking at the models.
Several models are calling for Ivan to go to the north, and follow the same track as Frances, including UKMET, NOGAPS, and GFDL. However, they take it only to the Bahamas before quitting. The only model that goes further is GFS, which goes to 16 days, but this model poofs the storm. After it gets to Puerto Rico, it just simply dissolves into a mess of other clouds. So what do you do when the models strongly suggest one thing, but the only model that will tell the full story is telling something different? I looked at the high pressure systems. There is a big one to the north. That's the one giving us the good weather this week. It is supposed to move off the coast, allowing Frances to take a more northeasterly track. Another high will come in from the US Midwest. In between will be a trough established by Francis and a couple of other non-tropical storms, and I am afraid that Ivan will go up this trough. In other words, it will come up to Florida, then veer off to the north and east and possibly hit the Carolinas and Virginia. It may not be as strong as Francis, but I certainly don't want that to happen. I will have to wait until the time gets to where the short models will pick up landfall, or GFS decided to realize the storm and tell us how it is going to go.
But Frances has so occupied the attention of broadcasters and weather people that not a one is mentioning Ivan at all. Gary Gray does not mention it at all, and some of the models are suggesting this could be another Frances. So I will give my Ivan analysis after looking at the models.
Several models are calling for Ivan to go to the north, and follow the same track as Frances, including UKMET, NOGAPS, and GFDL. However, they take it only to the Bahamas before quitting. The only model that goes further is GFS, which goes to 16 days, but this model poofs the storm. After it gets to Puerto Rico, it just simply dissolves into a mess of other clouds. So what do you do when the models strongly suggest one thing, but the only model that will tell the full story is telling something different? I looked at the high pressure systems. There is a big one to the north. That's the one giving us the good weather this week. It is supposed to move off the coast, allowing Frances to take a more northeasterly track. Another high will come in from the US Midwest. In between will be a trough established by Francis and a couple of other non-tropical storms, and I am afraid that Ivan will go up this trough. In other words, it will come up to Florida, then veer off to the north and east and possibly hit the Carolinas and Virginia. It may not be as strong as Francis, but I certainly don't want that to happen. I will have to wait until the time gets to where the short models will pick up landfall, or GFS decided to realize the storm and tell us how it is going to go.
2004/09/01
Hurricane Frances Update
Hurricane Frances has turned into a real cliffhanger, like a 13-inning 7th game of a World Series or the 2000 Presidential election. It has even been a little weird. The Global Forecasting System (GFS) showed the storm coming into Brunswick, Georgia, or thereabouts, continuing to the northwest, and then splitting up into two storms! One of them heads for Kentucky and Ohio, west of the Appalachians, and the other goes east of the Appalachians, into western Virginia. In Richmond, it gives us a glancing blow, much like Hugo did. The storm reunites somewhere in the Great Lakes.
The hurricane has stayed on a westerly course, with the longitude increasing about 3-4 times as fast as the latitude, and south of the course predicted by the National Hurricane Center. That course was going to go to Jacksonville, FL, but then it moved to Daytona Beach, and then to the Kennedy Space Center, and now back more towards Daytona again. However, the GFS and GFDL models have indicated all day long a hit at Hardeeville, SC, and then a track to the north northeast towards Richmond. Of course I don't want this to happen. I am not too concerned about the wind, since the NHC reports indicate that although the storm is producing140 mph winds, they quickly go down to about 80 mph at 60 miles inland and 12 hours all the way down to 30 mph. But it would throw about 2-10 inches of rain here in Richmond, and we already had 4-14 inches from upstart Gaston, which was "only" a measly little tropical storm.
Now tonight the GFS and GFDL has been joined by all of the BAM models, including BAM-H and BAM-G, so now the computer models graph on Weather Underground looks like a split, with some models heading to the Kennedy Space Center and some heading towards Savannah, GA and Hardeeville, SC. This is making this storm a cliffhanger. Which way is it going to go? Will it follow GFS, or will it follow UKMET, which up to now has been pretty steady? I of course hope that the UKMET and NOGAPS are right. I imagine that the people in Florida hope that GFS is right. We will have to watch the high and the storm really closely the next few days. The people from Fort Pierce to Jacksonville, FL need to keep a close eye on the storm, and so do the people near the Carolina and Virginia coasts. The next two days will tell the story.
The hurricane has stayed on a westerly course, with the longitude increasing about 3-4 times as fast as the latitude, and south of the course predicted by the National Hurricane Center. That course was going to go to Jacksonville, FL, but then it moved to Daytona Beach, and then to the Kennedy Space Center, and now back more towards Daytona again. However, the GFS and GFDL models have indicated all day long a hit at Hardeeville, SC, and then a track to the north northeast towards Richmond. Of course I don't want this to happen. I am not too concerned about the wind, since the NHC reports indicate that although the storm is producing140 mph winds, they quickly go down to about 80 mph at 60 miles inland and 12 hours all the way down to 30 mph. But it would throw about 2-10 inches of rain here in Richmond, and we already had 4-14 inches from upstart Gaston, which was "only" a measly little tropical storm.
Now tonight the GFS and GFDL has been joined by all of the BAM models, including BAM-H and BAM-G, so now the computer models graph on Weather Underground looks like a split, with some models heading to the Kennedy Space Center and some heading towards Savannah, GA and Hardeeville, SC. This is making this storm a cliffhanger. Which way is it going to go? Will it follow GFS, or will it follow UKMET, which up to now has been pretty steady? I of course hope that the UKMET and NOGAPS are right. I imagine that the people in Florida hope that GFS is right. We will have to watch the high and the storm really closely the next few days. The people from Fort Pierce to Jacksonville, FL need to keep a close eye on the storm, and so do the people near the Carolina and Virginia coasts. The next two days will tell the story.
2004/08/30
Monkey Tale
Today when I went running, I found on the locker room door before I went running at lunchtime a posted notice. The notice told a tale of five monkeys. It goes something like this, although you can get a narrative by searching, say for "monkeys banana attack".
Put five monkeys in a cage. Put a stairs there and a banana so that a monkey, standing on stairs, can reach and get the banana. Then watch. Sooner or later, a monkey will go up to get the banana. At that time, spray the other four monkeys hard with a hose. After that, continue to look (replace the banana). Sooner or later, a monkey will go after the banana. When that happens, spray the other four monkeys. Do this several times. At about this time, when a monkey goes up to get the banana, the other four monkeys will attack it, because this brings water on them. This happens, even after you stop dousing them.
Call the monkeys 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5. Now take Monkey 5 out and replace him with Monkey 6. Monkey 6 does not know of the situation. He goes for the banana. At that time the other monkeys attack him. After a couple of times of this, he does not climb the stairs any more. Take Monkey 4 out and replace her with Monkey 7. For the same reason, Monkey 7 will try to get the banana and will be attacked by the other monkeys (including Monkey 6!). In turn like this take Monkey 3 out and replace him with Monkey 8, and watch him get attacked upon trying to get the banana. Do the same with Monkeys 2 and 1, replacing them with Monkeys 9 and 10.
Now look. There are now five completely different monkeys in there, numbers 6-10. Monkeys 1-5, who got doused, are not there anymore. None of 6 through 10 ever got doused. But if any of those goes for the banana, he gets attacked! What is this phenomenon? It is POLICY, that is what it is.
This had me really thinking, especially since my workplace went through a 100% turnover a year ago (except for me). Apparently there are two levels of monkey thinking. Level 0 is the monkey who is new to the situation. Everything is fresh, yet to be discovered, including that tasty banana hanging from the ceiling. So he goes for the banana. Not so Level 1. This is a monkey that has learned that going up to the banana gets dousing from others, and gets one attacked by the others. So the monkey does not go up stairs. Now these monkeys, having nothing to do with the original situation, are still stuck with the original Level 1 situation.
To get above this, a monkey in the cage needs to go to Level 2. Why should I be attacked for doing what comes naturally, getting a banana to eat? There is no point to it. There was a point once, but it now has been lost. So the Level 2 monkey would want to get the banana, and would try to get it without getting attacked. Maybe a quick snipe. Maybe even better yet, find out what causes the attacks in the first place. There's a hose in the wall? Maybe take that banana and plug the hole with it?
This reminds me of the world situation. Soon we are going to run out of oil. But no one mentions it. Why not? Because a politician would lose votes, and a hypermediac would lose his job with the network. The hypermedia and the politicians are the other monkeys who would attack you. So what do you do? You need to get something going to get us ready for the oil shortage, but you need to do something about all the Level 1 monkeys out there that would attack you. So you need to attend to world defense, as well as move to a more sustainable economy. This would be taking the world view, according to Spiral Dynamic's Yellow Meme. It would be a courageous action, but it needs to be taken soon. If we remain trapped like monkeys in a cage, that may mean the end.
Put five monkeys in a cage. Put a stairs there and a banana so that a monkey, standing on stairs, can reach and get the banana. Then watch. Sooner or later, a monkey will go up to get the banana. At that time, spray the other four monkeys hard with a hose. After that, continue to look (replace the banana). Sooner or later, a monkey will go after the banana. When that happens, spray the other four monkeys. Do this several times. At about this time, when a monkey goes up to get the banana, the other four monkeys will attack it, because this brings water on them. This happens, even after you stop dousing them.
Call the monkeys 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5. Now take Monkey 5 out and replace him with Monkey 6. Monkey 6 does not know of the situation. He goes for the banana. At that time the other monkeys attack him. After a couple of times of this, he does not climb the stairs any more. Take Monkey 4 out and replace her with Monkey 7. For the same reason, Monkey 7 will try to get the banana and will be attacked by the other monkeys (including Monkey 6!). In turn like this take Monkey 3 out and replace him with Monkey 8, and watch him get attacked upon trying to get the banana. Do the same with Monkeys 2 and 1, replacing them with Monkeys 9 and 10.
Now look. There are now five completely different monkeys in there, numbers 6-10. Monkeys 1-5, who got doused, are not there anymore. None of 6 through 10 ever got doused. But if any of those goes for the banana, he gets attacked! What is this phenomenon? It is POLICY, that is what it is.
This had me really thinking, especially since my workplace went through a 100% turnover a year ago (except for me). Apparently there are two levels of monkey thinking. Level 0 is the monkey who is new to the situation. Everything is fresh, yet to be discovered, including that tasty banana hanging from the ceiling. So he goes for the banana. Not so Level 1. This is a monkey that has learned that going up to the banana gets dousing from others, and gets one attacked by the others. So the monkey does not go up stairs. Now these monkeys, having nothing to do with the original situation, are still stuck with the original Level 1 situation.
To get above this, a monkey in the cage needs to go to Level 2. Why should I be attacked for doing what comes naturally, getting a banana to eat? There is no point to it. There was a point once, but it now has been lost. So the Level 2 monkey would want to get the banana, and would try to get it without getting attacked. Maybe a quick snipe. Maybe even better yet, find out what causes the attacks in the first place. There's a hose in the wall? Maybe take that banana and plug the hole with it?
This reminds me of the world situation. Soon we are going to run out of oil. But no one mentions it. Why not? Because a politician would lose votes, and a hypermediac would lose his job with the network. The hypermedia and the politicians are the other monkeys who would attack you. So what do you do? You need to get something going to get us ready for the oil shortage, but you need to do something about all the Level 1 monkeys out there that would attack you. So you need to attend to world defense, as well as move to a more sustainable economy. This would be taking the world view, according to Spiral Dynamic's Yellow Meme. It would be a courageous action, but it needs to be taken soon. If we remain trapped like monkeys in a cage, that may mean the end.
Gaston Surprise
Last night I was concerned about Frances, because it could come up our way in Richmond, Virginia. I am still concerned about that, but recent paths show it going away towards places farther west, so I am still monitoring that storm.
But tonight we had a surprise from what's left of Tropical Storm Gaston. I am still going to call it Tropical Storm Gaston, and in fact, it may regenerate into a hurricane when it gets out into the Atlantic. This is because the storm held together as a whole. We can't call it "remnants" because the storm is still a unified whole. It came up through South Carolina and North Carolina, where it caused tremendous flooding in Raleigh. Then it came here to Richmond where it literally dumped everything it had, and even produced some gale-force winds.
I got home OK but I was wondering about my wife's evening job. I examined all the reports coming in. I-95 was closed between Belvidere and Boulevard. Semmes and Commerce Avenue were closed. There were huge traffic jams on I-95 north south of the James River. There were floods on Brander's Bridge Road, Lewis Road at Ironbridge Road, Ironbridge Road at Newby's Bridge Road, I-195 between Douglasdale and Broad, Midlothian Turnpike in several places, and on Route 5 near Osborne to our east. I concluded that there was no way she could get to work. All the roads either had traffic jams or high water. So she didn't go in.
Richmond north of the city had 10-14 inches of rain. So far here we have had 4.6 inches, so it isn't the top storm here but it comes close. But it has caused some serious situations, more so than with some storms that were Class 3 hurricanes. Shockoe Bottom is flooded with people trapped on higher floors of buildings. The water on I-95 is so deep at one point that rescuers are having to get people by dragging them up from an overpass. A whole bunch of people are mandatorily evacuated because authorities are concerned about a dam break. Fortunately the center is going off shore, but unfortunately the western half of the storm seems to be strengthening. It will probably move off the coast tonight.
Among storms we have had, it ranks with Fran and Floyd, but in terms of rainfall, it tops them all. Last year was the Windstorm Isabel. This year it is Rainstorm Gaston. So I am hoping that Frances and her companions stay away. Latest guidance now suggests a landfall in Florida, so that may be good news, especially since it then is supposed to go out to the northwest. One storm like this in a year is enough.
But tonight we had a surprise from what's left of Tropical Storm Gaston. I am still going to call it Tropical Storm Gaston, and in fact, it may regenerate into a hurricane when it gets out into the Atlantic. This is because the storm held together as a whole. We can't call it "remnants" because the storm is still a unified whole. It came up through South Carolina and North Carolina, where it caused tremendous flooding in Raleigh. Then it came here to Richmond where it literally dumped everything it had, and even produced some gale-force winds.
I got home OK but I was wondering about my wife's evening job. I examined all the reports coming in. I-95 was closed between Belvidere and Boulevard. Semmes and Commerce Avenue were closed. There were huge traffic jams on I-95 north south of the James River. There were floods on Brander's Bridge Road, Lewis Road at Ironbridge Road, Ironbridge Road at Newby's Bridge Road, I-195 between Douglasdale and Broad, Midlothian Turnpike in several places, and on Route 5 near Osborne to our east. I concluded that there was no way she could get to work. All the roads either had traffic jams or high water. So she didn't go in.
Richmond north of the city had 10-14 inches of rain. So far here we have had 4.6 inches, so it isn't the top storm here but it comes close. But it has caused some serious situations, more so than with some storms that were Class 3 hurricanes. Shockoe Bottom is flooded with people trapped on higher floors of buildings. The water on I-95 is so deep at one point that rescuers are having to get people by dragging them up from an overpass. A whole bunch of people are mandatorily evacuated because authorities are concerned about a dam break. Fortunately the center is going off shore, but unfortunately the western half of the storm seems to be strengthening. It will probably move off the coast tonight.
Among storms we have had, it ranks with Fran and Floyd, but in terms of rainfall, it tops them all. Last year was the Windstorm Isabel. This year it is Rainstorm Gaston. So I am hoping that Frances and her companions stay away. Latest guidance now suggests a landfall in Florida, so that may be good news, especially since it then is supposed to go out to the northwest. One storm like this in a year is enough.
2004/08/29
Hurricane Party
It's hurricane time again, and sure enough the Great Den of Hurricanes, namely the Atlantic Ocean, is brewing trouble. Now it is Hurricane Francis, following a course somewhat similar to Isabel last year and to Floyd in 1999. Further, there are two more. Gaston just landed in South Carolina, and is supposed to make this area of Virginia diluvian, with several inches of rain. Hermine is out in the Atlantic but the Global Forecasting System (GFS) does not show it much; I think it will simply disappear.
Francis is the one I am concerned about. I have been following this storm for about a week or maybe even longer, before it even existed! The GFS makes it possible to follow a storm up to 16 days in advance. Some of the previous runs had it turning around in Florida and heading up here to Virginia, and that had me concerned. This past weekend, they started to head Francis into the GOM (i.e., Gulf of Mexico) after striking southern Florida, which sure does not need such a hurricane. It then would hit the Gulf Coast somewhere and head to the north northwest, perhaps affecting Indiana or Michigan.
As of late, the GFS started to move it to the east. The 12Z run today was really scary. It showed it going into Savannah, GA, and then heading into western Virginia after clobbering Charlotte like Hugo did in 1989. Not only that, but then after that a long train of hurricanes was following in its path, ready to strike the Carolinas in turn: Ivan, Jeanne, and Karl. I got the 18Z run today and it shows a more southerly path, hitting Fort Pierce, Florida, and then into Georgia and Kentucky. We would just get a little rain. And the traffic jam of hurricanes in the Atlantic is gone: just one little storm (Ivan) that turns away long before hitting the East Coast.
The runs are consistent enough to show clearly that someone is going to get 'caned. It is probably in Florida, but I hope we don't have another Isabel. So I am going to keep a watch of this storm, and also Ivan.
Francis is the one I am concerned about. I have been following this storm for about a week or maybe even longer, before it even existed! The GFS makes it possible to follow a storm up to 16 days in advance. Some of the previous runs had it turning around in Florida and heading up here to Virginia, and that had me concerned. This past weekend, they started to head Francis into the GOM (i.e., Gulf of Mexico) after striking southern Florida, which sure does not need such a hurricane. It then would hit the Gulf Coast somewhere and head to the north northwest, perhaps affecting Indiana or Michigan.
As of late, the GFS started to move it to the east. The 12Z run today was really scary. It showed it going into Savannah, GA, and then heading into western Virginia after clobbering Charlotte like Hugo did in 1989. Not only that, but then after that a long train of hurricanes was following in its path, ready to strike the Carolinas in turn: Ivan, Jeanne, and Karl. I got the 18Z run today and it shows a more southerly path, hitting Fort Pierce, Florida, and then into Georgia and Kentucky. We would just get a little rain. And the traffic jam of hurricanes in the Atlantic is gone: just one little storm (Ivan) that turns away long before hitting the East Coast.
The runs are consistent enough to show clearly that someone is going to get 'caned. It is probably in Florida, but I hope we don't have another Isabel. So I am going to keep a watch of this storm, and also Ivan.
2004/08/17
Everything's a Goat
I ran into an amusing site today, Goatism, in which the author maintains that the main principle of the life, the universe, and everything is that everything is a goat. That's right, a goat. You're a goat, I'm a goat. Ba-a-a-a. Bleat, bleat. The whole world's a goat. He has devoted some pages to the consequences of this. But his most interesting parts are when he proves that everything is a goat. His first proof has some obvious non-sequitors in it, so I will present a revision of his proof, and show that indeed, everything is a goat:
Theorem: Everything's a goat.
Lemma: If a set X contains a goat, then all elements of X are goats.
Proof: by induction on X = n. If n = 1, then if X contains a goat, then the only x in X is a goat, and since x is the only element of X, all elements of X are goats.
Suppose that for all Y with Y <= n, that if Y contains a goat, then all y in Y are goats. Let Zbe an n+1-element set with at least one goat g. Pick an h in Z<> g, and pull it out; i.e., consider Z- {h}. This set has n elements and it has g in it, so all elements of Z- {h} are goats.Remove another element k from the set, not g, and replace it with h. That is, consider Z - {k} union {h}. This set also has n elements, and contains g, so all elements in it are goats. This means that h is a goat also, so all elements of Z are goats.
There exists a goat g. I can take you to the zoo and prove that for you, or click here. Let a be anything, and consider {a,g}. This set has at least one goat in it, so it is all goats. Hence a is a goat. So anything is a goat. This completes the proof.
Note that I can also use this proof to prove everything is a leprechaun, since leprechauns do exist. I can use it to prove everyone's an orange, everyone's a genius, and everyone's anything. So where is the flaw in the proof? I say to remove another element k from the set, and that it can't be g. Of course not, since then I could not guarantee that there is a goat in the resulting set. But it also isn't h, since h has been pulled out. So the set out of which I pull my k has two elements less than the overall set, so it has number n - 1. However, when n+ 1 = 2, then n - 1 = 0. So the set out of which I have to pull my k has nothing in it, so I can't pull anything out of it. That destroys the entire proof, since we can't even proceed to n = 2 in the induction.
There are lots of neat little tricks on the site, such as a proof that if there is a goat, then there are not two goats, so the Entire Universe is One Big Goat. It's good for a laugh, but watch the math. There are traps ahead that will get your goat.
Theorem: Everything's a goat.
Lemma: If a set X contains a goat, then all elements of X are goats.
Proof: by induction on X = n. If n = 1, then if X contains a goat, then the only x in X is a goat, and since x is the only element of X, all elements of X are goats.
Suppose that for all Y with Y <= n, that if Y contains a goat, then all y in Y are goats. Let Zbe an n+1-element set with at least one goat g. Pick an h in Z<> g, and pull it out; i.e., consider Z- {h}. This set has n elements and it has g in it, so all elements of Z- {h} are goats.Remove another element k from the set, not g, and replace it with h. That is, consider Z - {k} union {h}. This set also has n elements, and contains g, so all elements in it are goats. This means that h is a goat also, so all elements of Z are goats.
There exists a goat g. I can take you to the zoo and prove that for you, or click here. Let a be anything, and consider {a,g}. This set has at least one goat in it, so it is all goats. Hence a is a goat. So anything is a goat. This completes the proof.
Note that I can also use this proof to prove everything is a leprechaun, since leprechauns do exist. I can use it to prove everyone's an orange, everyone's a genius, and everyone's anything. So where is the flaw in the proof? I say to remove another element k from the set, and that it can't be g. Of course not, since then I could not guarantee that there is a goat in the resulting set. But it also isn't h, since h has been pulled out. So the set out of which I pull my k has two elements less than the overall set, so it has number n - 1. However, when n+ 1 = 2, then n - 1 = 0. So the set out of which I have to pull my k has nothing in it, so I can't pull anything out of it. That destroys the entire proof, since we can't even proceed to n = 2 in the induction.
There are lots of neat little tricks on the site, such as a proof that if there is a goat, then there are not two goats, so the Entire Universe is One Big Goat. It's good for a laugh, but watch the math. There are traps ahead that will get your goat.
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