The Jackson media circus
Pop singer Michael Jackson has been charged with several counts of sexual misconduct towards children, and recently he was arrested and allowed out on his own recognizance. This week he reported to court for arraignment. The result was the same as if they held a rock concert at the court. Huge throngs of people, many of them with placards that said that he was innocent of any charges, lined his pathway to the court building. When he left, the throngs had to be pushed out of the way by police to allow Michael Jackson through. This was a media circus, and it received far more press than would be warranted in this case.
On 2004 February 13, Michael Jackson will be coming up to court again. And probably the same media circus will be there. Will they be charging admission to this circus? Most circuses that I know of charge admission.
These circuses are ominiculous. They tell me that the Third Turning is still with us. The breakdown of societal norms is still going on. People are having a huge conniption about sexual "predators" (as though they were lions or something) preying on children, but when an actual apparent instance such as Michael Jackson appears, they cheer for him. First we go one way and then another. And much of it is media hype, which thrives on Third Turnings.
To me Planeattack on 2001 September 11 was a False Turning. It looked like a Fourth Turning, but it is clear that the Third Turning is still with us. The Fourth Turning will not be with us until a societal attack is made on media hype.
A Journey through Blogrealm
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2004/01/17
2004/01/14
Me? An Actor?
Don't expect to see me in the next blockbuster. But I did get involved with a new play production group this weekend. It started with some play reciting in a club called the Beyond Toastmasters Club. There we recited a couple of humorous plays, one dealing with a man about to admit to his father that he is gay, and a young wanting to go to Harvard. The person with the idea for these plays, Gwynn Owens, held a preliminary meeting this past weekend, and the result is A Force of Nature Productions. I am hoping for a good participation in this production and that the productin is successful, for this is one play company that will be put on by people with enthusiasm but with only hidden potential for acting (and support activities). It is a People's Drama Company. If you are in the Richmond area, come see the plays, help produce them, support it. I probably will do support activities, but there is the off chance that I may be in one of the plays.
Don't expect to see me in the next blockbuster. But I did get involved with a new play production group this weekend. It started with some play reciting in a club called the Beyond Toastmasters Club. There we recited a couple of humorous plays, one dealing with a man about to admit to his father that he is gay, and a young wanting to go to Harvard. The person with the idea for these plays, Gwynn Owens, held a preliminary meeting this past weekend, and the result is A Force of Nature Productions. I am hoping for a good participation in this production and that the productin is successful, for this is one play company that will be put on by people with enthusiasm but with only hidden potential for acting (and support activities). It is a People's Drama Company. If you are in the Richmond area, come see the plays, help produce them, support it. I probably will do support activities, but there is the off chance that I may be in one of the plays.
2004/01/11
The Last Debate before Iowa
Here it is. The last debate before the Iowa caucuses. Maybe they should be called raucouses. Because that is how they were tonight. There were several donnybrooks. The main one was when Al Sharpton kept hammering at Howard Dean about how many black and Hispanic senior officials did he have in his Vermont government. Howard Dean did not have any at all. But does that mean anything? Not very many blacks or Hispanics live in Vermont. So to not find any in Dean's government would not be too surprising. A little later on, Ambassador Carol Moseley Braun criticized Sharpton for continuing a "racial fight".
At another time the moderator asked a candidate to ask another candidate about some specific issue. He asked Lieberman and Lieberman kept talking and talking and talking and talking despite efforts from the moderators to get him to stop and ask a short answer question of the other candidates. That lowers Lieberman in my estimation. I don't want blabbermouths and firehoses in the government of this country. I bet Lieberman got a lot of practice in the Senate with its filibusters.
By far the sharpest comment of the night was made by Rep. Kucinich of Ohio. He was asked if the US should pursue a space program; in particular to put people on the Moon and Mars. Kucinich said that Bush wanted to put our people in Iraq, and now he wants to put them on Mars and the Moon; he asked if Bush was still hunting down those weapons of mass destruction.
After all these debates, I feel that the best of the candidates is Dennis Kucinich. He has more positive and definite plans than the other candidates and further, his actions would improve our image abroad. To me Dean is losing his luster; he acted evasively at times tonight. Clark, who did not participate tonight, looks even better than ever, but he does not have much domestic experience; with a governor for his running mate, that should not affect him much. Here is my ranking of the candidates now:
1. Dennis Kucinich
2. Wesley Clark
3. Dick Gephardt
4. John Edwards
5. Howard Dean
6. Carol Moseley Brown
7. Al Sharpton
8. John Kerry
9. Joe Lieberman
However, any of these would be vastly preferable to Bush.
Here it is. The last debate before the Iowa caucuses. Maybe they should be called raucouses. Because that is how they were tonight. There were several donnybrooks. The main one was when Al Sharpton kept hammering at Howard Dean about how many black and Hispanic senior officials did he have in his Vermont government. Howard Dean did not have any at all. But does that mean anything? Not very many blacks or Hispanics live in Vermont. So to not find any in Dean's government would not be too surprising. A little later on, Ambassador Carol Moseley Braun criticized Sharpton for continuing a "racial fight".
At another time the moderator asked a candidate to ask another candidate about some specific issue. He asked Lieberman and Lieberman kept talking and talking and talking and talking despite efforts from the moderators to get him to stop and ask a short answer question of the other candidates. That lowers Lieberman in my estimation. I don't want blabbermouths and firehoses in the government of this country. I bet Lieberman got a lot of practice in the Senate with its filibusters.
By far the sharpest comment of the night was made by Rep. Kucinich of Ohio. He was asked if the US should pursue a space program; in particular to put people on the Moon and Mars. Kucinich said that Bush wanted to put our people in Iraq, and now he wants to put them on Mars and the Moon; he asked if Bush was still hunting down those weapons of mass destruction.
After all these debates, I feel that the best of the candidates is Dennis Kucinich. He has more positive and definite plans than the other candidates and further, his actions would improve our image abroad. To me Dean is losing his luster; he acted evasively at times tonight. Clark, who did not participate tonight, looks even better than ever, but he does not have much domestic experience; with a governor for his running mate, that should not affect him much. Here is my ranking of the candidates now:
1. Dennis Kucinich
2. Wesley Clark
3. Dick Gephardt
4. John Edwards
5. Howard Dean
6. Carol Moseley Brown
7. Al Sharpton
8. John Kerry
9. Joe Lieberman
However, any of these would be vastly preferable to Bush.
2004/01/06
Presidential Elections
Earlier I had said that Dean could be one of the Greatest Presidents in History, rivaling Washington, Lincoln, and FD Roosevelt. But there are some things about Dean that unnerve me. His comments on guys with trucks with Confederate flags, his wanting to appeal to those who believe in literal Gods and Bibles, and his having Don Beyer, a car dealer, as his treasurer. To me, car dealers and repair shops have the least reliability of any place that I have seen. For that reason I never voted for Beyer, even if that meant voting Republican. Somehow I don't think Dean fits the role. But Wesley Clark can. He has military experience, and seems to be showing some charisma.
So what does that mean about the Presidential race? Bush has lost four Lichtman keys but right now is holding on to the other nine. If the election were held today, Bush would win easily. Recall that I said that the next Great President would be a Democrat, the one to succeed Bush. Since I don't see Dean filling that role, I conclude that if Dean is nominated, Bush will win. If, however, Clark catches up with Dean and wins the nomination, Bush could be in trouble.
So what's happening? According to recent polls, Clark is catching up to Dean in some of these primaries. The fact that Dean has taken a huge lead this early may work to his disadvantage, because it means that eight Democratic candidates take their ire off Bush and shoot it towards Dean. So Clark's surge may be a sign that Bush is headed for rough times ahead.
Earlier I had said that Dean could be one of the Greatest Presidents in History, rivaling Washington, Lincoln, and FD Roosevelt. But there are some things about Dean that unnerve me. His comments on guys with trucks with Confederate flags, his wanting to appeal to those who believe in literal Gods and Bibles, and his having Don Beyer, a car dealer, as his treasurer. To me, car dealers and repair shops have the least reliability of any place that I have seen. For that reason I never voted for Beyer, even if that meant voting Republican. Somehow I don't think Dean fits the role. But Wesley Clark can. He has military experience, and seems to be showing some charisma.
So what does that mean about the Presidential race? Bush has lost four Lichtman keys but right now is holding on to the other nine. If the election were held today, Bush would win easily. Recall that I said that the next Great President would be a Democrat, the one to succeed Bush. Since I don't see Dean filling that role, I conclude that if Dean is nominated, Bush will win. If, however, Clark catches up with Dean and wins the nomination, Bush could be in trouble.
So what's happening? According to recent polls, Clark is catching up to Dean in some of these primaries. The fact that Dean has taken a huge lead this early may work to his disadvantage, because it means that eight Democratic candidates take their ire off Bush and shoot it towards Dean. So Clark's surge may be a sign that Bush is headed for rough times ahead.
Airline Madness
I may never ride in a commercial aircraft again. There are just too many problems with it.
The problem had been brewing for years. The airlines got crowdeder, more uncomfortable, with fewer amenities, and the lines and traffic jams at airports had been getting worse and worse during the premillennium. The reason for this is evident: demand for airline travel had been steadily increasing, but the capacity has stayed the same, because no new airports were being built. By the end of the last century, the capacity had been reached.
Then along comes Planeattack, on 2001 September 11, to scare off plane travel. For a while, plane travel was nice, if you didn't mind the extra security. But plane travel has picked up again, and again the lines have grown longer and longer, and again the discomfort has gone up and the amenities have gone down, as airlines merged into a precious few monsters. And now security is getting to be a serious problem. An entire concourse of travelers at an airport is evaculated, and even a plane that had just taken off was ordered to reland and disembark, because a pair of scissors was found in a ladies' room. One misguided footballiot runs the wrong way at Hartsfield airport and the whole airport shuts down for hours. All the passengers are forced to disembark and the plane and passengers thoroughly inspected, because some "wires" are found hanging from a passenger - these turn out to be drawstrings on a jacket. And so forth and so forth the absurdities in the air and on the ground continue, with the latest being the repeated jetfighter-escorting and canceling of overseas flights suspected of harboring terrorists. Think how travelers must feel being stranded over there. I may never want to visit Europe for that reason.
Consider my mother's latest plane trip. She was to travel from Rochester to Dulles to Richmond before Yule. Her plane to Dulles gets delayed because of bad weather in Rochester, so much that she would have missed her connection, so she gets on a much later dinnertime flight from Dulles to Richmond. When she gets there, the plane gets delayed and delayed, and eventually canceled, so the airline buses her down to the airport. By car, the distance from Rochester to Richmond, 540 miles, is 9 hours. Her airplane (and bus) trip took 14 hours.
I may travel by air in the future, but it will be rare. If I have to travel from Richmond to Kansas, I will drive, even if it takes two days. I may even want to travel three days by car. If I do fly, I will insist on non-stop flights from origin to destination and drive the rest of the way. There has to be some way out of this airborne lunacy. Hope the politicians are listening.
I may never ride in a commercial aircraft again. There are just too many problems with it.
The problem had been brewing for years. The airlines got crowdeder, more uncomfortable, with fewer amenities, and the lines and traffic jams at airports had been getting worse and worse during the premillennium. The reason for this is evident: demand for airline travel had been steadily increasing, but the capacity has stayed the same, because no new airports were being built. By the end of the last century, the capacity had been reached.
Then along comes Planeattack, on 2001 September 11, to scare off plane travel. For a while, plane travel was nice, if you didn't mind the extra security. But plane travel has picked up again, and again the lines have grown longer and longer, and again the discomfort has gone up and the amenities have gone down, as airlines merged into a precious few monsters. And now security is getting to be a serious problem. An entire concourse of travelers at an airport is evaculated, and even a plane that had just taken off was ordered to reland and disembark, because a pair of scissors was found in a ladies' room. One misguided footballiot runs the wrong way at Hartsfield airport and the whole airport shuts down for hours. All the passengers are forced to disembark and the plane and passengers thoroughly inspected, because some "wires" are found hanging from a passenger - these turn out to be drawstrings on a jacket. And so forth and so forth the absurdities in the air and on the ground continue, with the latest being the repeated jetfighter-escorting and canceling of overseas flights suspected of harboring terrorists. Think how travelers must feel being stranded over there. I may never want to visit Europe for that reason.
Consider my mother's latest plane trip. She was to travel from Rochester to Dulles to Richmond before Yule. Her plane to Dulles gets delayed because of bad weather in Rochester, so much that she would have missed her connection, so she gets on a much later dinnertime flight from Dulles to Richmond. When she gets there, the plane gets delayed and delayed, and eventually canceled, so the airline buses her down to the airport. By car, the distance from Rochester to Richmond, 540 miles, is 9 hours. Her airplane (and bus) trip took 14 hours.
I may travel by air in the future, but it will be rare. If I have to travel from Richmond to Kansas, I will drive, even if it takes two days. I may even want to travel three days by car. If I do fly, I will insist on non-stop flights from origin to destination and drive the rest of the way. There has to be some way out of this airborne lunacy. Hope the politicians are listening.
2003/12/31
The AP Top 10 for 2003 contains what?
It is near the new year as I write this, and one of the stories on the Web is on Fox News, showing the AP top 10 stories of the year. This is good to do to review over the old year before embarking on a new. Here are the top 10 according to the Associated Press:
1. War in Iraq
2. Columbia Disaster
3. California Recall
4. SARS
5. Northeast Blackout
6. Improving Economy
7. California Wildfires
8. Bush Tax Cut
9. Elizabeth Smart
10. Democratic Campaign
One way you can tell if this order is correct is to take two events and see if the higher is really more important than the lower. For example, the California Recall is clearly more important than SARS, since SARS affected at most a million people (counting those that were really concerned about it), while the recall concerned a lot more. Basically this is correct (although I think SARS is somewhat high) with one glaring exception. Elizabeth Smart. This was one single missing person, and so does not qualify as a national story; it is strictly local. So what's it doing on this list? Hurricane Isabel is not on this list, but surely it is more important than Elizabeth Smart. Elizabeth Smart affected only a few people, while Hurricane Isabel affected tens of millions of people. I think the American editors and publishers who contributed to the poll should reconsider their vote. It is really good news that Elizabeth was found alive, but to put this on a list of nationally important events like those that affect the livelihood of millions or those that could determine our next President is sheer hype.
It is near the new year as I write this, and one of the stories on the Web is on Fox News, showing the AP top 10 stories of the year. This is good to do to review over the old year before embarking on a new. Here are the top 10 according to the Associated Press:
1. War in Iraq
2. Columbia Disaster
3. California Recall
4. SARS
5. Northeast Blackout
6. Improving Economy
7. California Wildfires
8. Bush Tax Cut
9. Elizabeth Smart
10. Democratic Campaign
One way you can tell if this order is correct is to take two events and see if the higher is really more important than the lower. For example, the California Recall is clearly more important than SARS, since SARS affected at most a million people (counting those that were really concerned about it), while the recall concerned a lot more. Basically this is correct (although I think SARS is somewhat high) with one glaring exception. Elizabeth Smart. This was one single missing person, and so does not qualify as a national story; it is strictly local. So what's it doing on this list? Hurricane Isabel is not on this list, but surely it is more important than Elizabeth Smart. Elizabeth Smart affected only a few people, while Hurricane Isabel affected tens of millions of people. I think the American editors and publishers who contributed to the poll should reconsider their vote. It is really good news that Elizabeth was found alive, but to put this on a list of nationally important events like those that affect the livelihood of millions or those that could determine our next President is sheer hype.
2003/12/27
Yuletide 2003
Well, I had my Christmas, or Yuletide, as it is for me, since I do not believe in any special significance in Jesus Christ. However, the idea of a special child did take a part in my Yuletide for 2003. I went to a service of the First Unitarian Church of Richmond, and heard a Christmas story by Cyndi Simpson. Yes, this is the same Cyndi Simpson that wanted to give an invocation to the Chesterfield Board of Supervisors, but was not allowed to by the board because of her Wiccan religion. It was a story I had never heard before, of a woman, La Befana, who lived by herself with her cooking and her broom. Yes, according to the cultural stereotype, she was a witch. A parade came to town and a boy ran out to her house, saying they were going to see the Royal Child of Light and give him gifts. So La Befana cooked up a storm and took a whole bunch of gifts for this child, and got her broom to fly and rode it after the parade. She did not find the Child, nor did she ever, but she kept showering gifts on all the children, thinking that any one of them could be the child.
I had heard this story earlier, of someone who was trying to find someone special to give a gift to, but could not find him, so he gave gifts to everyone thinking that any one could be this person. I could see a person hunting around for the perfect job, and that he wants to perform it well, but never find it, and instead does the best he can at each job he gets anyway, thinking that each of these jobs could be the perfect job. I could think of some man hunting for the perfect mate, an L6 (see "Logarithms keep Dr. Brown in Perspective" for definition of L6) or even better, and in the meantime treating each woman he meets as though she were this perfect woman. In each case the protagonist does a lot of good and achieves his purposes with less than the perfect, while hunting down the perfect and never finding it. So I find it quite inspiring, and I am glad to have heard it. It inspired me so much that I wrote a song symbolizing the journey of La Befana.
Well, I had my Christmas, or Yuletide, as it is for me, since I do not believe in any special significance in Jesus Christ. However, the idea of a special child did take a part in my Yuletide for 2003. I went to a service of the First Unitarian Church of Richmond, and heard a Christmas story by Cyndi Simpson. Yes, this is the same Cyndi Simpson that wanted to give an invocation to the Chesterfield Board of Supervisors, but was not allowed to by the board because of her Wiccan religion. It was a story I had never heard before, of a woman, La Befana, who lived by herself with her cooking and her broom. Yes, according to the cultural stereotype, she was a witch. A parade came to town and a boy ran out to her house, saying they were going to see the Royal Child of Light and give him gifts. So La Befana cooked up a storm and took a whole bunch of gifts for this child, and got her broom to fly and rode it after the parade. She did not find the Child, nor did she ever, but she kept showering gifts on all the children, thinking that any one of them could be the child.
I had heard this story earlier, of someone who was trying to find someone special to give a gift to, but could not find him, so he gave gifts to everyone thinking that any one could be this person. I could see a person hunting around for the perfect job, and that he wants to perform it well, but never find it, and instead does the best he can at each job he gets anyway, thinking that each of these jobs could be the perfect job. I could think of some man hunting for the perfect mate, an L6 (see "Logarithms keep Dr. Brown in Perspective" for definition of L6) or even better, and in the meantime treating each woman he meets as though she were this perfect woman. In each case the protagonist does a lot of good and achieves his purposes with less than the perfect, while hunting down the perfect and never finding it. So I find it quite inspiring, and I am glad to have heard it. It inspired me so much that I wrote a song symbolizing the journey of La Befana.
Terror Confusion
Once again we are under Orange Alert. It seems that we have picked up some "chatter" indicating a terrorist attack may be immanent. An Orange Condition is High and means that there is a high chance of a terrorist attack (however, "high" is not very well defined). So of course the media is hyping it up for all they can get. In so doing they are really causing some bad confusion. They say that "The national threat level was elevated to the Orange, or High level earlier this week." They mean that it was increased to that level. It is their use of "elevated" that causes the problem. "Elevated" is the next lower state of terror alert, the Yellow level, one below Orange. So the media seem to be saying that the level is both Yellow and Orange and is really causing some confusion. They should avoid using "elevated" to mean raised to a level, because "elevated" is now a specific term meaning a specific level. It's like saying that tomorrow's weather is cool, man, because it is the first day of the year that it has really gotten warm out. If you really like something, you can say it's cool, but not when describing weather. In the same way, you can say that things have been elevated to another level, but not when describing terror conditions.
Once again we are under Orange Alert. It seems that we have picked up some "chatter" indicating a terrorist attack may be immanent. An Orange Condition is High and means that there is a high chance of a terrorist attack (however, "high" is not very well defined). So of course the media is hyping it up for all they can get. In so doing they are really causing some bad confusion. They say that "The national threat level was elevated to the Orange, or High level earlier this week." They mean that it was increased to that level. It is their use of "elevated" that causes the problem. "Elevated" is the next lower state of terror alert, the Yellow level, one below Orange. So the media seem to be saying that the level is both Yellow and Orange and is really causing some confusion. They should avoid using "elevated" to mean raised to a level, because "elevated" is now a specific term meaning a specific level. It's like saying that tomorrow's weather is cool, man, because it is the first day of the year that it has really gotten warm out. If you really like something, you can say it's cool, but not when describing weather. In the same way, you can say that things have been elevated to another level, but not when describing terror conditions.
2003/12/21
Religious sayings
I heard an interesting sermon from a UU minister today. He got really emphatic at one point in the sermon, and I got his point. To me it can be summarized thus: There is no Promised Land, except for the entire Earth that is the Promised Land for us all. How true that is. Where else in the solar system can we live? Those who think that a certain segment of Earth belongs to them as their Promised Land will find that it doesn't.
Here are other sayings I have come up with, that combine more than one of humankind's religious principles:
Christianity and Islam: Blessed are the meek, the sick, and the downtrodden, for if you don't give to these, you are not a true believer.
Christianity and Zen Buddhism: If you see Christ the Son of God along the road with his host of angels, crucify him.
Islam and Taoism: There is no God but the unspeakable Allah; the Allah of which we speak is not the Real Allah.
And some of my favorite sayings from the world's religions:
Christianity: Let he who has not sinned throw the first stone. - Jesus
Islam: If you don't give to the poor and sick, you are not a true Muslim.
Taoism: The tao that can be spoken is not the Real Tao.
Unitarian-Universalism: We affirm the principle of the never-ending quest for truth and meaning.
Hinduism: There are many paths to the Ultimate, but they all lead to the same goal.
I heard an interesting sermon from a UU minister today. He got really emphatic at one point in the sermon, and I got his point. To me it can be summarized thus: There is no Promised Land, except for the entire Earth that is the Promised Land for us all. How true that is. Where else in the solar system can we live? Those who think that a certain segment of Earth belongs to them as their Promised Land will find that it doesn't.
Here are other sayings I have come up with, that combine more than one of humankind's religious principles:
Christianity and Islam: Blessed are the meek, the sick, and the downtrodden, for if you don't give to these, you are not a true believer.
Christianity and Zen Buddhism: If you see Christ the Son of God along the road with his host of angels, crucify him.
Islam and Taoism: There is no God but the unspeakable Allah; the Allah of which we speak is not the Real Allah.
And some of my favorite sayings from the world's religions:
Christianity: Let he who has not sinned throw the first stone. - Jesus
Islam: If you don't give to the poor and sick, you are not a true Muslim.
Taoism: The tao that can be spoken is not the Real Tao.
Unitarian-Universalism: We affirm the principle of the never-ending quest for truth and meaning.
Hinduism: There are many paths to the Ultimate, but they all lead to the same goal.
Yuletide Fantasy Run 2003
Once again I ran at night this season to find out what kind of Yule displays there were. My rules were the same as past years, with the main one being that white floodlights eliminate a house from being my Display of the Year. I found many interesting displays, and also a few dark areas. The house with the star at the top radiating from it to the ground and a lit up ground was still there. One lot had red lights all over a series of bushes, while another one had reindeer that moved their heads. The Display of the Year for me this year was the one with the star at the top. Another house had lights all over the trees in the yard up high in the air, and it looked really impressive when you stand next to it; however, he had a floodlight on the roof blaring down on it incongruously. I have a Star Saver award, as well. To qualify for this, a display must have absolutely no white lights of any kind. I did not see too many like that. My own house does not qualify, but if you turn off the white lights in the front, it does, and is my choice for this year, featuring two colorful trees in the windows and twelve red 3-candle candelabras. The most unusual display featured three flat snowmen kicking their feet in their air. So that's it for this year.
Once again I ran at night this season to find out what kind of Yule displays there were. My rules were the same as past years, with the main one being that white floodlights eliminate a house from being my Display of the Year. I found many interesting displays, and also a few dark areas. The house with the star at the top radiating from it to the ground and a lit up ground was still there. One lot had red lights all over a series of bushes, while another one had reindeer that moved their heads. The Display of the Year for me this year was the one with the star at the top. Another house had lights all over the trees in the yard up high in the air, and it looked really impressive when you stand next to it; however, he had a floodlight on the roof blaring down on it incongruously. I have a Star Saver award, as well. To qualify for this, a display must have absolutely no white lights of any kind. I did not see too many like that. My own house does not qualify, but if you turn off the white lights in the front, it does, and is my choice for this year, featuring two colorful trees in the windows and twelve red 3-candle candelabras. The most unusual display featured three flat snowmen kicking their feet in their air. So that's it for this year.
2003/12/15
Will Dean Be One of Our Greatest Presidents?
So how does the Presidential race look right now, with Saddam captured? It will give an immediate boost to Bush, but it won't last. Already, attacks are continuing at pretty much the same pace as before. Since Saddam had no cellular phone and absolutely no way of communicating with others on the outside, therefore, the bulk of insurgents in Iraq are anti-US rather than pro-Saddam, and so they will not go away. So there will be basically no change.
Right now it seems that Bush will get elected unless the Iraq situation gets out of hand so bad that it causes keys to topple, and the economy sputters. This is certainly possible. But what it means is that if Dean is elected, then these things will have occurred. This means that Dean will have a hard task ahead of him, trying to run a country whose economy is listless and with the Iraq situation getting even worse than ever. I don't know if I want that kind of job; it would be highly stressful. If Bush gets elected, that means he will have either a good economy or a good situation in Iraq with him, or both, so he will have an easy time of it.
But look - how will the economy topple and Iraq get much worse? By the Fourth Turning starting then, that's how. These conditions will smack Bush in the face and lead to his defeat, leaving Dean with the task of putting it back together. Dean will be a Fourth Turning President, and the previous Fourth Turning Presidents - Washington, Lincoln, and FD Roosevelt, have been the greatest Presidents we have had. This means, unlikely as it seems now, that Dean will become one of our greatest Presidents also. He will be the one that will get us over the Iraq mess, a weak economy or even a depression, and the results of the upcoming oil and other resources shortage.
However, if Bush gets elected, that will because 2005 will enter still in the Third Turning. During Bush's second term, he will get whacked by the Fourth Turning - probably the oil shortage, and he will either resign or lose the next election in a landslide, perhaps to Hillary Clinton. This means that Bush will go down in history as one of our bottom-tier presidents, and Hillary will be one of our Greatest Presidents.
So it is interesting that the answer to the question, "Is being the President of this country going to be an enormous challenge?" will be Yes if Dean gets elected and No if Bush gets re-elected, and this is concluded based on a combination of the Lichtman Keys theory and the Fourth Turning theory. It will be interesting to see what happens.
So how does the Presidential race look right now, with Saddam captured? It will give an immediate boost to Bush, but it won't last. Already, attacks are continuing at pretty much the same pace as before. Since Saddam had no cellular phone and absolutely no way of communicating with others on the outside, therefore, the bulk of insurgents in Iraq are anti-US rather than pro-Saddam, and so they will not go away. So there will be basically no change.
Right now it seems that Bush will get elected unless the Iraq situation gets out of hand so bad that it causes keys to topple, and the economy sputters. This is certainly possible. But what it means is that if Dean is elected, then these things will have occurred. This means that Dean will have a hard task ahead of him, trying to run a country whose economy is listless and with the Iraq situation getting even worse than ever. I don't know if I want that kind of job; it would be highly stressful. If Bush gets elected, that means he will have either a good economy or a good situation in Iraq with him, or both, so he will have an easy time of it.
But look - how will the economy topple and Iraq get much worse? By the Fourth Turning starting then, that's how. These conditions will smack Bush in the face and lead to his defeat, leaving Dean with the task of putting it back together. Dean will be a Fourth Turning President, and the previous Fourth Turning Presidents - Washington, Lincoln, and FD Roosevelt, have been the greatest Presidents we have had. This means, unlikely as it seems now, that Dean will become one of our greatest Presidents also. He will be the one that will get us over the Iraq mess, a weak economy or even a depression, and the results of the upcoming oil and other resources shortage.
However, if Bush gets elected, that will because 2005 will enter still in the Third Turning. During Bush's second term, he will get whacked by the Fourth Turning - probably the oil shortage, and he will either resign or lose the next election in a landslide, perhaps to Hillary Clinton. This means that Bush will go down in history as one of our bottom-tier presidents, and Hillary will be one of our Greatest Presidents.
So it is interesting that the answer to the question, "Is being the President of this country going to be an enormous challenge?" will be Yes if Dean gets elected and No if Bush gets re-elected, and this is concluded based on a combination of the Lichtman Keys theory and the Fourth Turning theory. It will be interesting to see what happens.
2003/12/14
We Got Him!
Today when I got up and looked at the Web I saw an unlikely but possible event had just happened. US and other forces in Iraq had captured Saddam Hussein! This sounds like a joyous day, especially for Iraq. The dictator has been captured. He was the Ace of Spades. But Iraq reminds me more of chess than of cards. They captured a bishop there, a pawn here, and here a rook gets captured, and then over the summer a couple of queens. Today, however, was checkmate. Supposedly the game is over. But I also thought about Dorothy's arrival in Oz that killed the Wicked Witch of the East. The people all started singing "Oh, Ho, the Wicked Witch, the Wicked Witch is dead!" and I thought of the Lewis Carroll poem "Jabberwocky", and especially the lyrics "Oh frabjous day! Calloo! Callay!" and "Hast Thou Killed the Jabberwock, my Son?"
This Jabberwock is not dead, however. That is good, because he can talk about what's been going on in Iraq for the past 30 years or so. Now with the head of the old regime gone, it seems that things should improve remarkably in Iraq. Indeed, this may happen. Perhaps the people conducting the attacks were so doing in Saddam's name, and with Saddam captured, the appeal of his mystique may vanish.
However, there are some who think other things may happen. An article by Ayaz Amir in the Pakistani web periodical Dawn, says this: "If Saddam were captured or killed, this resistance, far from dying down, would gather more strength." He says this is because the resistance to occupation forces is more broad-based than just Saddam loyalists and is focused more on America.
So now we need to know which is the case. That may determine whether Bush gets reelected. If the Iraq situation remarkably improves, he may become unbeatable, as Lichtman himself said today. If the Iraq situation gets worse, Bush may squeak by if the economy stays good, but if it deteriorates, then Bush is in trouble. The next two or three weeks may tell the story.
Today when I got up and looked at the Web I saw an unlikely but possible event had just happened. US and other forces in Iraq had captured Saddam Hussein! This sounds like a joyous day, especially for Iraq. The dictator has been captured. He was the Ace of Spades. But Iraq reminds me more of chess than of cards. They captured a bishop there, a pawn here, and here a rook gets captured, and then over the summer a couple of queens. Today, however, was checkmate. Supposedly the game is over. But I also thought about Dorothy's arrival in Oz that killed the Wicked Witch of the East. The people all started singing "Oh, Ho, the Wicked Witch, the Wicked Witch is dead!" and I thought of the Lewis Carroll poem "Jabberwocky", and especially the lyrics "Oh frabjous day! Calloo! Callay!" and "Hast Thou Killed the Jabberwock, my Son?"
This Jabberwock is not dead, however. That is good, because he can talk about what's been going on in Iraq for the past 30 years or so. Now with the head of the old regime gone, it seems that things should improve remarkably in Iraq. Indeed, this may happen. Perhaps the people conducting the attacks were so doing in Saddam's name, and with Saddam captured, the appeal of his mystique may vanish.
However, there are some who think other things may happen. An article by Ayaz Amir in the Pakistani web periodical Dawn, says this: "If Saddam were captured or killed, this resistance, far from dying down, would gather more strength." He says this is because the resistance to occupation forces is more broad-based than just Saddam loyalists and is focused more on America.
So now we need to know which is the case. That may determine whether Bush gets reelected. If the Iraq situation remarkably improves, he may become unbeatable, as Lichtman himself said today. If the Iraq situation gets worse, Bush may squeak by if the economy stays good, but if it deteriorates, then Bush is in trouble. The next two or three weeks may tell the story.
2003/12/11
Here it comes, the Inconceivable Prime Number
I learned today that the largest prime number ever discovered was discovered recently. A prime number is an integer that is not -1, 0, or 1, and has no factors other than itself and 1. Examples are 2, 3, 5, 7, and 97. The newly discovered prime number is 220,996,011 - 1. This means multiply 2 by itself 20,996,001 times and subtract 1. The result has 6,320,430 digits. This is getting to be really huge.
When I was a child, I learned about prime numbers such as 2127 - 1, which can fit on a single line of print, as being the biggest. This is a scientific number. If you click on that link, you get my classification of numbers into six categories: counting, statistical, scientific, literary, inconceivable, and indescribable. In addition, I subdivide literary numbers into poem numbers, novel numbers, and encyclopedia numbers. As I grew older, the largest prime number became a poem number, and once computers got into the act, the largest prime quickly became a novel number. The prime that was discovered today is on the verge of becoming an encyclopedia number, which means, printed out, it could fit a small encyclopedia.
The number was discovered by 200,000 or so computers acting in parallel. Many people have connected their computers to a site that computes these numbers, using the people's own computer to do the computations. The technique has been used before to discover what would be much more earth-shaking, namely extraterrestrial Life, by analyzing the data from Aricebo.
As computers get better and faster, and more and more people are willing to get involved, the day may come when the largest prime number will be inconceivable. When that happens, they can't print it out or count it out; there is not enough time in a lifetime to do it. This happens when it exceeds 20 billion digits. So here it comes! The Inconceivable Prime Number.
I learned today that the largest prime number ever discovered was discovered recently. A prime number is an integer that is not -1, 0, or 1, and has no factors other than itself and 1. Examples are 2, 3, 5, 7, and 97. The newly discovered prime number is 220,996,011 - 1. This means multiply 2 by itself 20,996,001 times and subtract 1. The result has 6,320,430 digits. This is getting to be really huge.
When I was a child, I learned about prime numbers such as 2127 - 1, which can fit on a single line of print, as being the biggest. This is a scientific number. If you click on that link, you get my classification of numbers into six categories: counting, statistical, scientific, literary, inconceivable, and indescribable. In addition, I subdivide literary numbers into poem numbers, novel numbers, and encyclopedia numbers. As I grew older, the largest prime number became a poem number, and once computers got into the act, the largest prime quickly became a novel number. The prime that was discovered today is on the verge of becoming an encyclopedia number, which means, printed out, it could fit a small encyclopedia.
The number was discovered by 200,000 or so computers acting in parallel. Many people have connected their computers to a site that computes these numbers, using the people's own computer to do the computations. The technique has been used before to discover what would be much more earth-shaking, namely extraterrestrial Life, by analyzing the data from Aricebo.
As computers get better and faster, and more and more people are willing to get involved, the day may come when the largest prime number will be inconceivable. When that happens, they can't print it out or count it out; there is not enough time in a lifetime to do it. This happens when it exceeds 20 billion digits. So here it comes! The Inconceivable Prime Number.
Hyperflu Emergency
I had blogged yesterday that the hypermedia is hyping up the flu epidemic too much. This has resulted in some interesting results today. First of all, the authorities now say the flu season will not be much different than in past years, even though it has been reported in all 50 states (well, so has the common cold). Secondly, in the Richmond area, it has caused an "external emergency". Specifically, so many people have arrived in hospitals sick with flu that it has filled every bed in the Richmond area! They are canceling all but emergency surgeries, and using a system by which a hospital is selected for a person based on whether that hospital has room. To me this is serious. What if Isabel wood should hit a tree chopper and cause him to have serious injuries? Where does he go? Does he just lay there and die? And guess what is also happening now? The hypermedia is now hyping the other way! They are urging those only moderately sick and under 65 (not 50) now to go to the hospital.
I think a "lessons learned" review of this crisis could contain a recommendation to forbid the media from reporting on any illness except those which have been approved by a hospital board. The media need to act more responsibly.
I had blogged yesterday that the hypermedia is hyping up the flu epidemic too much. This has resulted in some interesting results today. First of all, the authorities now say the flu season will not be much different than in past years, even though it has been reported in all 50 states (well, so has the common cold). Secondly, in the Richmond area, it has caused an "external emergency". Specifically, so many people have arrived in hospitals sick with flu that it has filled every bed in the Richmond area! They are canceling all but emergency surgeries, and using a system by which a hospital is selected for a person based on whether that hospital has room. To me this is serious. What if Isabel wood should hit a tree chopper and cause him to have serious injuries? Where does he go? Does he just lay there and die? And guess what is also happening now? The hypermedia is now hyping the other way! They are urging those only moderately sick and under 65 (not 50) now to go to the hospital.
I think a "lessons learned" review of this crisis could contain a recommendation to forbid the media from reporting on any illness except those which have been approved by a hospital board. The media need to act more responsibly.
Nader won't do as well this time
I see that Nader is again running for President. The last time he did that, in 2000, he could be said to have thrown the election from Gore to Bush. Nader took only 2% in Florida, but that was much greater than the margin of difference between Gore and Bush. Nader threw Florida from Gore to Bush, and threw the whole Presidency that way as well.
So now he endangers the Democrats' 2004 challenger to Bush, probably Howard Dean. Or does he? What happens if he were to make a major run for the President and get at least 5% of the vote? According to the Lichtman key theory, it would hurt Bush, as it would cost Bush the third party key (3DP). But it would also help Bush, as Nader would take almost all of his votes away from the Democratic candidate. That's a contradiction. This contradiction shows that my "what happens" above can't happen, and so therefore Nader will have little effect on the upcoming election. In my view, he may be lucky to get 1%. There is more of an imperative to stop Bush now than there was in 1999 and 2000, and so I expect that many in the Nader camp in 2000 will vote for the Democrat this time.
I see that Nader is again running for President. The last time he did that, in 2000, he could be said to have thrown the election from Gore to Bush. Nader took only 2% in Florida, but that was much greater than the margin of difference between Gore and Bush. Nader threw Florida from Gore to Bush, and threw the whole Presidency that way as well.
So now he endangers the Democrats' 2004 challenger to Bush, probably Howard Dean. Or does he? What happens if he were to make a major run for the President and get at least 5% of the vote? According to the Lichtman key theory, it would hurt Bush, as it would cost Bush the third party key (3DP). But it would also help Bush, as Nader would take almost all of his votes away from the Democratic candidate. That's a contradiction. This contradiction shows that my "what happens" above can't happen, and so therefore Nader will have little effect on the upcoming election. In my view, he may be lucky to get 1%. There is more of an imperative to stop Bush now than there was in 1999 and 2000, and so I expect that many in the Nader camp in 2000 will vote for the Democrat this time.
2003/12/10
Abercrombie and Fitch Advertising
I had heard that Abercrombie and Fitch, an old prestigious catalog apparel company, was advertising its products with "sex". They would show pictures of young men and women with no shirt or no clothes on lying next to each other, and one case they show a group nude scene, with the title "group sex". The idea that they had is that would help sell their products to young people. Many people object to that way of involving sex in their catalog. That's really up to the viewer. Sex is a part of nature, of our nature. The problem I have with Abercrombie and Fitch's using sex in their advertising is that sex has nothing to do with the clothes they sell. They are bringing up something irrelevant.
Actually, they are bringing up something that defeats their purpose. They sell clothes, so why do they show people without clothes on? That makes as much sense as a laundromat in a nudist colony. If you want to sell a shirt, you need to show someone wearing a shirt, not a shirtless hunk. So they should show people wearing clothes, and not just any clothes. They should show them wearing Abercrombie and Fitch clothes. That's how they sell their product.
I had heard that Abercrombie and Fitch, an old prestigious catalog apparel company, was advertising its products with "sex". They would show pictures of young men and women with no shirt or no clothes on lying next to each other, and one case they show a group nude scene, with the title "group sex". The idea that they had is that would help sell their products to young people. Many people object to that way of involving sex in their catalog. That's really up to the viewer. Sex is a part of nature, of our nature. The problem I have with Abercrombie and Fitch's using sex in their advertising is that sex has nothing to do with the clothes they sell. They are bringing up something irrelevant.
Actually, they are bringing up something that defeats their purpose. They sell clothes, so why do they show people without clothes on? That makes as much sense as a laundromat in a nudist colony. If you want to sell a shirt, you need to show someone wearing a shirt, not a shirtless hunk. So they should show people wearing clothes, and not just any clothes. They should show them wearing Abercrombie and Fitch clothes. That's how they sell their product.
Flu Hype
It's flu season and some flu bugs are going around that are different from usual. So what does the media do? They hype it up. But this is a case where the hypermedia could be doing harm.
Some flu bugs are around early this fall. This is a potential danger, so perhaps people should be given the option of taking flu shots. The media hypes it up, however, and says that everyone should get one as soon as possible, even though the most dangerous strain is so recent that the vaccine does not protect against it. So what happens? A huge herd of people stream into doctors' offices and clinics and request the flu shots. So what happens? Naturally. It runs out. Now the people who may need it now won't get it. And there is another danger with this hyping it up. Many people are getting flu shots that probably don't need it. They don't get the flu often or they will have only mild or moderate symptoms if they do get it. I remember back in the 1970s that the hypermedia hyped up the Swine Flu to the level of a Major Scare. Everyone went out and got the swine flu shots, including myself. Turns out the epidemic was a bust. Only two or three people got the swine flu, and many more than that got a really dangerous side effect: Guillian-Barre syndrome, an inflammation of the nerves that can cause paralysis.
So I am both skeptical and apprehensive about this hypering of the flu this season. I hope we don't have any Guillain-Barre syndromes this time around.
It's flu season and some flu bugs are going around that are different from usual. So what does the media do? They hype it up. But this is a case where the hypermedia could be doing harm.
Some flu bugs are around early this fall. This is a potential danger, so perhaps people should be given the option of taking flu shots. The media hypes it up, however, and says that everyone should get one as soon as possible, even though the most dangerous strain is so recent that the vaccine does not protect against it. So what happens? A huge herd of people stream into doctors' offices and clinics and request the flu shots. So what happens? Naturally. It runs out. Now the people who may need it now won't get it. And there is another danger with this hyping it up. Many people are getting flu shots that probably don't need it. They don't get the flu often or they will have only mild or moderate symptoms if they do get it. I remember back in the 1970s that the hypermedia hyped up the Swine Flu to the level of a Major Scare. Everyone went out and got the swine flu shots, including myself. Turns out the epidemic was a bust. Only two or three people got the swine flu, and many more than that got a really dangerous side effect: Guillian-Barre syndrome, an inflammation of the nerves that can cause paralysis.
So I am both skeptical and apprehensive about this hypering of the flu this season. I hope we don't have any Guillain-Barre syndromes this time around.
2003/12/09
Bloggerrhea
I am using a benefit of Blogger right now, namely the mailback feature. When I submit an entry on this blog, Blogger will send me an email containing the text of my blog. I thought that would be helpful. But Blogger is doing it too much. I submitted only three blogs tonight, but Blogger responded with seven emails! Why do I need so many emails after I blog something. I send something, I get an email; OK, that confirms that I blogged successfully. I get another email, alright already, Blogger. I get the message.
I am using a benefit of Blogger right now, namely the mailback feature. When I submit an entry on this blog, Blogger will send me an email containing the text of my blog. I thought that would be helpful. But Blogger is doing it too much. I submitted only three blogs tonight, but Blogger responded with seven emails! Why do I need so many emails after I blog something. I send something, I get an email; OK, that confirms that I blogged successfully. I get another email, alright already, Blogger. I get the message.
Earthquake in Virginia
Today I felt the strongest earthquake I have ever experienced. It happened at 2003 December 9 1559. I was at my office, and was preparing an email to send to the other members of my branch. I got the email ready, and hit "Send". Instantly the entire place started shaking back and forth. It did so for about five or six back and forth movements, and wondered what was shaking the building. My office is above the loading dock, so I wondered if something heavy was unloaded from a truck on the dock. But it seemed too heavy for that.
Others in my office noticed it, too, and I wondered if htose in the far side of my office had felt it. I went outside and saw nothing unusual. I had thought several; possibilities: earthquake, terrorist attack, ordnance exploding (I work near where military weapons are discharged occasionally), or a major accident below on the loading dock. The trip outside showed that it wasn't something at the dock, and the sky was clear except for normal clouds, eliminating the ordnance, which would have to be as strong as a MOAB to cause what I felt. I called my wife and found out that she had not felt anything; she had just arrived home from the grocery store. I wanted to call someone to see if this was local or widespread.
I went inside and saw a TV screen on a local Richmond station. They were reporting a mysterious shaking. If it were a terrorist attack, the national stations would be playing. To be felt here with nothing unusual looking here, it would have to have been a nuke, and the TV would be reporting national news. I therefore concluded that it was an earthquake. I looked earthquakes up on the Internet and found that what I experienced was IV-V on the Mercalli scale, and hence R4.5 on the Richter scale. Sure enough, later news reports said that it was indeed an R4.5 quake, and it was centered near Provost, Virginia, near the Powhatan wildlife refuge.
This was by far the most powerful earthquake I have ever experienced. I had experienced only one other earthquake, on 1968 November 9 in Evanston, Illinois, when I was a graduate student at Northwestern University. I was lying on my bed then and felt a floating sensation, and thought that was caused by my being somewhat drowsy. I found out several hours later that it was an R5.3 earthquake with an epicenter in southern Illinois, and that it had caused numerous reports of damage in Missouri and southern Illinois. I also was in an R4.0 earthquake in the Los Angeles area on 1991 July 9 or so, but did not feel it because I was in a car at the time.
But this one was the strongest I have ever felt. This year has really been one for natural disasters: Hurricane Isabel, a tornado five days later, and now an earthquake, plus huge quantities of rain. I suppose next will be a huge snowstorm.
Today I felt the strongest earthquake I have ever experienced. It happened at 2003 December 9 1559. I was at my office, and was preparing an email to send to the other members of my branch. I got the email ready, and hit "Send". Instantly the entire place started shaking back and forth. It did so for about five or six back and forth movements, and wondered what was shaking the building. My office is above the loading dock, so I wondered if something heavy was unloaded from a truck on the dock. But it seemed too heavy for that.
Others in my office noticed it, too, and I wondered if htose in the far side of my office had felt it. I went outside and saw nothing unusual. I had thought several; possibilities: earthquake, terrorist attack, ordnance exploding (I work near where military weapons are discharged occasionally), or a major accident below on the loading dock. The trip outside showed that it wasn't something at the dock, and the sky was clear except for normal clouds, eliminating the ordnance, which would have to be as strong as a MOAB to cause what I felt. I called my wife and found out that she had not felt anything; she had just arrived home from the grocery store. I wanted to call someone to see if this was local or widespread.
I went inside and saw a TV screen on a local Richmond station. They were reporting a mysterious shaking. If it were a terrorist attack, the national stations would be playing. To be felt here with nothing unusual looking here, it would have to have been a nuke, and the TV would be reporting national news. I therefore concluded that it was an earthquake. I looked earthquakes up on the Internet and found that what I experienced was IV-V on the Mercalli scale, and hence R4.5 on the Richter scale. Sure enough, later news reports said that it was indeed an R4.5 quake, and it was centered near Provost, Virginia, near the Powhatan wildlife refuge.
This was by far the most powerful earthquake I have ever experienced. I had experienced only one other earthquake, on 1968 November 9 in Evanston, Illinois, when I was a graduate student at Northwestern University. I was lying on my bed then and felt a floating sensation, and thought that was caused by my being somewhat drowsy. I found out several hours later that it was an R5.3 earthquake with an epicenter in southern Illinois, and that it had caused numerous reports of damage in Missouri and southern Illinois. I also was in an R4.0 earthquake in the Los Angeles area on 1991 July 9 or so, but did not feel it because I was in a car at the time.
But this one was the strongest I have ever felt. This year has really been one for natural disasters: Hurricane Isabel, a tornado five days later, and now an earthquake, plus huge quantities of rain. I suppose next will be a huge snowstorm.
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