Students for Academic Freedom
A group at the University of Colorado, Students for Academic Freedom, have opened up a web site to gather complaints about "left-leaning" professors. They say these professors tell only half the story, discriminate against conservative students, and try to indoctrinate students. Fair enough. I hope they are just as zealous about going after right-leaning professors, including those that tell only half the story, discriminate against liberal and libertarian students and try to indoctrinate students. Else they can complain about themselves.
A Journey through Blogrealm
Blogtrek
Blogtrek
2004/01/21
Candidate Friendliness
Why did Kerry win in Iowa? I think it was because he was friendly. Some other candidates don't seem to have the warm connection with voters that Kerry has, for example, Wesley Clark. This is going to hurt him against Bush. Bush has an optimistic message in his State of the Union address, while Clark seems to be as stern as, well, a military general. How friendly are the others? I rank the candidates this way on friendliness:
1. John Kerry
2. John Edwards
3. Joe Lieberman
4. Dennis Kucinich
5. Howard Dean
6. Wesley Clark
7. Al Sharpton
Clark is second last. However, I don't think Kerry can carry the day any better, as he seems to be associated with losers like Dukakis. It looks like Edwards might be my choice, but he looks like someone made him out of a Presidential Candidate Kit. He needs to show some realness in his approach.
Whoever the Democrats nominate, he has to look and speak optimistically or Bush is going to have that much more in his advantage in November.
Oh, by the way, what did you think of the Dean Scream on Monday night? He made the crowd go wild, but would that work in the Oval Office? I now rank Clark as my favorite with Edwards a close second because of Dean's fit.
Why did Kerry win in Iowa? I think it was because he was friendly. Some other candidates don't seem to have the warm connection with voters that Kerry has, for example, Wesley Clark. This is going to hurt him against Bush. Bush has an optimistic message in his State of the Union address, while Clark seems to be as stern as, well, a military general. How friendly are the others? I rank the candidates this way on friendliness:
1. John Kerry
2. John Edwards
3. Joe Lieberman
4. Dennis Kucinich
5. Howard Dean
6. Wesley Clark
7. Al Sharpton
Clark is second last. However, I don't think Kerry can carry the day any better, as he seems to be associated with losers like Dukakis. It looks like Edwards might be my choice, but he looks like someone made him out of a Presidential Candidate Kit. He needs to show some realness in his approach.
Whoever the Democrats nominate, he has to look and speak optimistically or Bush is going to have that much more in his advantage in November.
Oh, by the way, what did you think of the Dean Scream on Monday night? He made the crowd go wild, but would that work in the Oval Office? I now rank Clark as my favorite with Edwards a close second because of Dean's fit.
Now it's Steve Martin
Last month I complained to Virginia Delegate Kirk Cox because he threw a computer-recorded survey call on my telephone. Despite my complaint, he did it again. After that he stopped, until tonight, when I got yet another survey call. I was about ready to have it with Del. Cox until I found out that this time the culprit is Senator Steve Martin. He called me on the same number (703-488-9800) tonight with a survey call. So if you see this number on your Caller ID, don't answer it.
I emailed him back saying that I did not appreciate his call and to stop sending them to me. As long as these legislatures (and so far they are all Republican) are going to do this, I am going to have to regard them as little better than the common street telemarketer.
Last month I complained to Virginia Delegate Kirk Cox because he threw a computer-recorded survey call on my telephone. Despite my complaint, he did it again. After that he stopped, until tonight, when I got yet another survey call. I was about ready to have it with Del. Cox until I found out that this time the culprit is Senator Steve Martin. He called me on the same number (703-488-9800) tonight with a survey call. So if you see this number on your Caller ID, don't answer it.
I emailed him back saying that I did not appreciate his call and to stop sending them to me. As long as these legislatures (and so far they are all Republican) are going to do this, I am going to have to regard them as little better than the common street telemarketer.
2004/01/19
Microsoft: The Big Bully
There have been several takeoffs on Microsoft's name. For example, Apple Computer in the late 1970s named its software "AppleSoft", in a pun on "applesauce", but also on "Microsoft". The name sounds like "My crow's soft.", which sound like someone can't get it up, but with the species of bird specified. I haven't seen many cracks like this lately. And certainly things like this should not affect the multi-billion-dollar giant. But today apparently it had.
A story came out today that a 17-year-old Vancouver, British Columbia, high school student named Mike Rowe established a website for himself called www.MikeRoweSoft.com. So now Microsoft has stooped down to suing the youngster and getting him to abandon the name. Perhaps if bully Microsoft would be more polite, it could get Mr. Rowe to put a plug for Microsoft on his site, but not now. Microsoft, long known for playing games with its software, now is playing games with its own name.
There have been several takeoffs on Microsoft's name. For example, Apple Computer in the late 1970s named its software "AppleSoft", in a pun on "applesauce", but also on "Microsoft". The name sounds like "My crow's soft.", which sound like someone can't get it up, but with the species of bird specified. I haven't seen many cracks like this lately. And certainly things like this should not affect the multi-billion-dollar giant. But today apparently it had.
A story came out today that a 17-year-old Vancouver, British Columbia, high school student named Mike Rowe established a website for himself called www.MikeRoweSoft.com. So now Microsoft has stooped down to suing the youngster and getting him to abandon the name. Perhaps if bully Microsoft would be more polite, it could get Mr. Rowe to put a plug for Microsoft on his site, but not now. Microsoft, long known for playing games with its software, now is playing games with its own name.
Iowa Caucuses: How I rate them today
I got an appeal from a friend today urging me to support Wesley Clark for President. He quoted an article from Michael Moore which supported Clark. Most of the statements seem unfounded, but one that sticks out like a sore thumb is this: his background is military, and he is anti-war and pro-environment. That is a rare combination indeed. The only people who I think had the same oxymoronic combination are national heroes like General Dwight Eisenhower or General Ridgeway. These people saw war as something that had to be gotten done and they did not relish it, even though they were actively involved in fighting it. If Clark is like these people, that would be a strong point in his favor. I still favor Dean slightly, but that could change in coming days.
Here is how I rate the Democratic candidates today during the caucuses:
1. Howard Dean
2. Wesley Clark
3. John Edwards
4. Dennis Kucinich (I hear he was pooling votes with Edwards)
5. Dick Gephardt
6. John Kerry
7. Joe Lieberman
8. Al Sharpton
I got an appeal from a friend today urging me to support Wesley Clark for President. He quoted an article from Michael Moore which supported Clark. Most of the statements seem unfounded, but one that sticks out like a sore thumb is this: his background is military, and he is anti-war and pro-environment. That is a rare combination indeed. The only people who I think had the same oxymoronic combination are national heroes like General Dwight Eisenhower or General Ridgeway. These people saw war as something that had to be gotten done and they did not relish it, even though they were actively involved in fighting it. If Clark is like these people, that would be a strong point in his favor. I still favor Dean slightly, but that could change in coming days.
Here is how I rate the Democratic candidates today during the caucuses:
1. Howard Dean
2. Wesley Clark
3. John Edwards
4. Dennis Kucinich (I hear he was pooling votes with Edwards)
5. Dick Gephardt
6. John Kerry
7. Joe Lieberman
8. Al Sharpton
Twilight Zone intro
A little bit of humor for a change:
An ominous voice says, "You are now entering…"
Scene: A city park, where a man is walking, or trying to walk, because he has to dodge the leavings of dogs on the sidewalk throughout the park.
Voice: "…The Twilight Zone…"
[music]: doo-doo doo-doo doo-doo doo-doo doo-doo doo-doo doo-doo doo-doo …
The voice corrects itself: "… Correction. The Toilet Zone."
A little bit of humor for a change:
An ominous voice says, "You are now entering…"
Scene: A city park, where a man is walking, or trying to walk, because he has to dodge the leavings of dogs on the sidewalk throughout the park.
Voice: "…The Twilight Zone…"
[music]: doo-doo doo-doo doo-doo doo-doo doo-doo doo-doo doo-doo doo-doo …
The voice corrects itself: "… Correction. The Toilet Zone."
Caucuses, Gaffes and Lies
Well today is the big day. The Iowa caucuses meet tonight to decide on Iowa's choices for the Democratic candidate for President of the United States in the 2004 election. It looked like Dr. Howard Dean was going to win easily, but the contest has become close; it is close to a four-way tie.
Today I went to the Fox news site and found two video interviews by Fox news, one of Dean, and one of Iowa Senator Richard Gephardt. Gephardt said the usual stuff that I would expect of a Democratic candidate - doubting what Bush is doing and presenting Democratic agenda. So far, most of the candidates have been like that, making me indifferent between all of them as of late - all of them would be a much better President than Bush is. But when I listened to the Dean video I heard something that makes him stand out from the others.
When asked about the gaffes he has made recently, he said, "A gaffe in Washington is when somebody tells the truth and people in Washington don't think they should have." Interesting. If that's the case, then we want people who commit gaffes to be our next President, because we can trust that President to tell us the truth. In other words, statements made by Washington politicians are either gaffes or lies.
So I looked among the gaffes of Dean on the Internet and found this one from the Concord Monitor: "I still have this old-fashioned notion that even with people like Osama, who is very likely to be found guilty, we should do our best … in positions of executive power, not to prejudge jury trials." If this is a gaffe, then I want all the Democratic candidates to make gaffes all over the place. Our government is based on the principle that a defendant is innocent until proven guilty, and that this is a universal principle that holds for all defendants, including Osama. To me it is surprising that so many people hold this against Dean, so much that he took a partial retraction of it. Maybe people in this country don't want a democracy and a government of laws. All that Dean was stating was that the job of judging is given to the courts, not to the executive branch or especially the media.
Another one is where he said he wanted the support of men driving pickup trucks with Confederate flags on them. Again, I think this is what he should want. Not only should these men vote for Dean, but they should also replace those Confederate flags with US flags or with Earth flags.
In another one, he said that his brother was a POWMIA when actually he was an anti-war protestor who visited Laos and was never seen again. This is an easy mistake to make: he used an acronym. Acronyms are quite often incomprehensible, and even when they are comprehensible, they can easily become monsters, since they are divorced from the concept they came from. An example might be the password or the identification number that authorizes one to some service or benefit. These words seem plain enough and understandable. But when you replace them with ID number or PIN, you have created a monster. You tend to use PIN where you shouldn't or even when it does not make sense. I have heard many references to "PIN number", which means "personal identification number number", which shows that the user has forgotten what the acronym means. Dean apparently forgot what POWMIA means and used it to mean any missing person. If he had taken the trouble to spell it out, he would have started to say, "Prisoner of war or missing in action", and then would have noticed that it implied military service by his brother, and would not have made the remark. Don't use acronyms; it is the easiest way to be misunderstood.
But on the whole, I think that Dean's "gaffes" actually make him a better candidate. In light of his comment today, I say it makes him more truthful than the other candidates, and that is what we need in the government, the media and other places in our society today: the truth. I would rather have a President that makes gaffes instead of one that tells lies. So therefore I lean towards Dean for the Democratic candidate for President.
Well today is the big day. The Iowa caucuses meet tonight to decide on Iowa's choices for the Democratic candidate for President of the United States in the 2004 election. It looked like Dr. Howard Dean was going to win easily, but the contest has become close; it is close to a four-way tie.
Today I went to the Fox news site and found two video interviews by Fox news, one of Dean, and one of Iowa Senator Richard Gephardt. Gephardt said the usual stuff that I would expect of a Democratic candidate - doubting what Bush is doing and presenting Democratic agenda. So far, most of the candidates have been like that, making me indifferent between all of them as of late - all of them would be a much better President than Bush is. But when I listened to the Dean video I heard something that makes him stand out from the others.
When asked about the gaffes he has made recently, he said, "A gaffe in Washington is when somebody tells the truth and people in Washington don't think they should have." Interesting. If that's the case, then we want people who commit gaffes to be our next President, because we can trust that President to tell us the truth. In other words, statements made by Washington politicians are either gaffes or lies.
So I looked among the gaffes of Dean on the Internet and found this one from the Concord Monitor: "I still have this old-fashioned notion that even with people like Osama, who is very likely to be found guilty, we should do our best … in positions of executive power, not to prejudge jury trials." If this is a gaffe, then I want all the Democratic candidates to make gaffes all over the place. Our government is based on the principle that a defendant is innocent until proven guilty, and that this is a universal principle that holds for all defendants, including Osama. To me it is surprising that so many people hold this against Dean, so much that he took a partial retraction of it. Maybe people in this country don't want a democracy and a government of laws. All that Dean was stating was that the job of judging is given to the courts, not to the executive branch or especially the media.
Another one is where he said he wanted the support of men driving pickup trucks with Confederate flags on them. Again, I think this is what he should want. Not only should these men vote for Dean, but they should also replace those Confederate flags with US flags or with Earth flags.
In another one, he said that his brother was a POWMIA when actually he was an anti-war protestor who visited Laos and was never seen again. This is an easy mistake to make: he used an acronym. Acronyms are quite often incomprehensible, and even when they are comprehensible, they can easily become monsters, since they are divorced from the concept they came from. An example might be the password or the identification number that authorizes one to some service or benefit. These words seem plain enough and understandable. But when you replace them with ID number or PIN, you have created a monster. You tend to use PIN where you shouldn't or even when it does not make sense. I have heard many references to "PIN number", which means "personal identification number number", which shows that the user has forgotten what the acronym means. Dean apparently forgot what POWMIA means and used it to mean any missing person. If he had taken the trouble to spell it out, he would have started to say, "Prisoner of war or missing in action", and then would have noticed that it implied military service by his brother, and would not have made the remark. Don't use acronyms; it is the easiest way to be misunderstood.
But on the whole, I think that Dean's "gaffes" actually make him a better candidate. In light of his comment today, I say it makes him more truthful than the other candidates, and that is what we need in the government, the media and other places in our society today: the truth. I would rather have a President that makes gaffes instead of one that tells lies. So therefore I lean towards Dean for the Democratic candidate for President.
2004/01/18
Statistically complicated data
I have posted a new mathematics page, namely "Hamlet, Part II: Complicated Numbers". In this one I show that there are seven levels of complexity of numbers, and that almost all numbers that we deal with in everyday life, even those discussed among professional mathematicians, are in the simplest category, the countably complicated numbers. These numbers take a thousand symbols or less to describe. The next category is statistically complicated numbers, taking a thousand to a quadrillion symbols to describe. The best example I can think of, of a statistically complicated number, is ten thousand digits drawn at random in a row.
But not only numbers can be complicated. So can groups of numbers, and in fact databases. For example, the account history of all account holders at the Bank of America is statistically complicated; it probably takes billions of symbols to describe, as one has to describe each person and each transaction separately. It is a marvel in our age that our computers can handle such databases. But isn't it easier to think in terms of countably complicated structures where you can? Instead of stating for each person in a group of people, such as a Girl Scout troop or a military unit how much food each requires in a day, instead come up with some rule saying that each person requires, say, 3.2 kilograms a day (don't use this figure for planning purposes; I made it up). That is countably complicated, instead of listing it for each person separately, which would be statistically complicated for a group of 1,000 or more people.
In many places, it may pay to research into finding countably complicated rules to describe things rather than statistically complicated databases.
I have posted a new mathematics page, namely "Hamlet, Part II: Complicated Numbers". In this one I show that there are seven levels of complexity of numbers, and that almost all numbers that we deal with in everyday life, even those discussed among professional mathematicians, are in the simplest category, the countably complicated numbers. These numbers take a thousand symbols or less to describe. The next category is statistically complicated numbers, taking a thousand to a quadrillion symbols to describe. The best example I can think of, of a statistically complicated number, is ten thousand digits drawn at random in a row.
But not only numbers can be complicated. So can groups of numbers, and in fact databases. For example, the account history of all account holders at the Bank of America is statistically complicated; it probably takes billions of symbols to describe, as one has to describe each person and each transaction separately. It is a marvel in our age that our computers can handle such databases. But isn't it easier to think in terms of countably complicated structures where you can? Instead of stating for each person in a group of people, such as a Girl Scout troop or a military unit how much food each requires in a day, instead come up with some rule saying that each person requires, say, 3.2 kilograms a day (don't use this figure for planning purposes; I made it up). That is countably complicated, instead of listing it for each person separately, which would be statistically complicated for a group of 1,000 or more people.
In many places, it may pay to research into finding countably complicated rules to describe things rather than statistically complicated databases.
2004/01/17
The Jackson media circus
Pop singer Michael Jackson has been charged with several counts of sexual misconduct towards children, and recently he was arrested and allowed out on his own recognizance. This week he reported to court for arraignment. The result was the same as if they held a rock concert at the court. Huge throngs of people, many of them with placards that said that he was innocent of any charges, lined his pathway to the court building. When he left, the throngs had to be pushed out of the way by police to allow Michael Jackson through. This was a media circus, and it received far more press than would be warranted in this case.
On 2004 February 13, Michael Jackson will be coming up to court again. And probably the same media circus will be there. Will they be charging admission to this circus? Most circuses that I know of charge admission.
These circuses are ominiculous. They tell me that the Third Turning is still with us. The breakdown of societal norms is still going on. People are having a huge conniption about sexual "predators" (as though they were lions or something) preying on children, but when an actual apparent instance such as Michael Jackson appears, they cheer for him. First we go one way and then another. And much of it is media hype, which thrives on Third Turnings.
To me Planeattack on 2001 September 11 was a False Turning. It looked like a Fourth Turning, but it is clear that the Third Turning is still with us. The Fourth Turning will not be with us until a societal attack is made on media hype.
Pop singer Michael Jackson has been charged with several counts of sexual misconduct towards children, and recently he was arrested and allowed out on his own recognizance. This week he reported to court for arraignment. The result was the same as if they held a rock concert at the court. Huge throngs of people, many of them with placards that said that he was innocent of any charges, lined his pathway to the court building. When he left, the throngs had to be pushed out of the way by police to allow Michael Jackson through. This was a media circus, and it received far more press than would be warranted in this case.
On 2004 February 13, Michael Jackson will be coming up to court again. And probably the same media circus will be there. Will they be charging admission to this circus? Most circuses that I know of charge admission.
These circuses are ominiculous. They tell me that the Third Turning is still with us. The breakdown of societal norms is still going on. People are having a huge conniption about sexual "predators" (as though they were lions or something) preying on children, but when an actual apparent instance such as Michael Jackson appears, they cheer for him. First we go one way and then another. And much of it is media hype, which thrives on Third Turnings.
To me Planeattack on 2001 September 11 was a False Turning. It looked like a Fourth Turning, but it is clear that the Third Turning is still with us. The Fourth Turning will not be with us until a societal attack is made on media hype.
2004/01/14
Me? An Actor?
Don't expect to see me in the next blockbuster. But I did get involved with a new play production group this weekend. It started with some play reciting in a club called the Beyond Toastmasters Club. There we recited a couple of humorous plays, one dealing with a man about to admit to his father that he is gay, and a young wanting to go to Harvard. The person with the idea for these plays, Gwynn Owens, held a preliminary meeting this past weekend, and the result is A Force of Nature Productions. I am hoping for a good participation in this production and that the productin is successful, for this is one play company that will be put on by people with enthusiasm but with only hidden potential for acting (and support activities). It is a People's Drama Company. If you are in the Richmond area, come see the plays, help produce them, support it. I probably will do support activities, but there is the off chance that I may be in one of the plays.
Don't expect to see me in the next blockbuster. But I did get involved with a new play production group this weekend. It started with some play reciting in a club called the Beyond Toastmasters Club. There we recited a couple of humorous plays, one dealing with a man about to admit to his father that he is gay, and a young wanting to go to Harvard. The person with the idea for these plays, Gwynn Owens, held a preliminary meeting this past weekend, and the result is A Force of Nature Productions. I am hoping for a good participation in this production and that the productin is successful, for this is one play company that will be put on by people with enthusiasm but with only hidden potential for acting (and support activities). It is a People's Drama Company. If you are in the Richmond area, come see the plays, help produce them, support it. I probably will do support activities, but there is the off chance that I may be in one of the plays.
2004/01/11
The Last Debate before Iowa
Here it is. The last debate before the Iowa caucuses. Maybe they should be called raucouses. Because that is how they were tonight. There were several donnybrooks. The main one was when Al Sharpton kept hammering at Howard Dean about how many black and Hispanic senior officials did he have in his Vermont government. Howard Dean did not have any at all. But does that mean anything? Not very many blacks or Hispanics live in Vermont. So to not find any in Dean's government would not be too surprising. A little later on, Ambassador Carol Moseley Braun criticized Sharpton for continuing a "racial fight".
At another time the moderator asked a candidate to ask another candidate about some specific issue. He asked Lieberman and Lieberman kept talking and talking and talking and talking despite efforts from the moderators to get him to stop and ask a short answer question of the other candidates. That lowers Lieberman in my estimation. I don't want blabbermouths and firehoses in the government of this country. I bet Lieberman got a lot of practice in the Senate with its filibusters.
By far the sharpest comment of the night was made by Rep. Kucinich of Ohio. He was asked if the US should pursue a space program; in particular to put people on the Moon and Mars. Kucinich said that Bush wanted to put our people in Iraq, and now he wants to put them on Mars and the Moon; he asked if Bush was still hunting down those weapons of mass destruction.
After all these debates, I feel that the best of the candidates is Dennis Kucinich. He has more positive and definite plans than the other candidates and further, his actions would improve our image abroad. To me Dean is losing his luster; he acted evasively at times tonight. Clark, who did not participate tonight, looks even better than ever, but he does not have much domestic experience; with a governor for his running mate, that should not affect him much. Here is my ranking of the candidates now:
1. Dennis Kucinich
2. Wesley Clark
3. Dick Gephardt
4. John Edwards
5. Howard Dean
6. Carol Moseley Brown
7. Al Sharpton
8. John Kerry
9. Joe Lieberman
However, any of these would be vastly preferable to Bush.
Here it is. The last debate before the Iowa caucuses. Maybe they should be called raucouses. Because that is how they were tonight. There were several donnybrooks. The main one was when Al Sharpton kept hammering at Howard Dean about how many black and Hispanic senior officials did he have in his Vermont government. Howard Dean did not have any at all. But does that mean anything? Not very many blacks or Hispanics live in Vermont. So to not find any in Dean's government would not be too surprising. A little later on, Ambassador Carol Moseley Braun criticized Sharpton for continuing a "racial fight".
At another time the moderator asked a candidate to ask another candidate about some specific issue. He asked Lieberman and Lieberman kept talking and talking and talking and talking despite efforts from the moderators to get him to stop and ask a short answer question of the other candidates. That lowers Lieberman in my estimation. I don't want blabbermouths and firehoses in the government of this country. I bet Lieberman got a lot of practice in the Senate with its filibusters.
By far the sharpest comment of the night was made by Rep. Kucinich of Ohio. He was asked if the US should pursue a space program; in particular to put people on the Moon and Mars. Kucinich said that Bush wanted to put our people in Iraq, and now he wants to put them on Mars and the Moon; he asked if Bush was still hunting down those weapons of mass destruction.
After all these debates, I feel that the best of the candidates is Dennis Kucinich. He has more positive and definite plans than the other candidates and further, his actions would improve our image abroad. To me Dean is losing his luster; he acted evasively at times tonight. Clark, who did not participate tonight, looks even better than ever, but he does not have much domestic experience; with a governor for his running mate, that should not affect him much. Here is my ranking of the candidates now:
1. Dennis Kucinich
2. Wesley Clark
3. Dick Gephardt
4. John Edwards
5. Howard Dean
6. Carol Moseley Brown
7. Al Sharpton
8. John Kerry
9. Joe Lieberman
However, any of these would be vastly preferable to Bush.
2004/01/06
Presidential Elections
Earlier I had said that Dean could be one of the Greatest Presidents in History, rivaling Washington, Lincoln, and FD Roosevelt. But there are some things about Dean that unnerve me. His comments on guys with trucks with Confederate flags, his wanting to appeal to those who believe in literal Gods and Bibles, and his having Don Beyer, a car dealer, as his treasurer. To me, car dealers and repair shops have the least reliability of any place that I have seen. For that reason I never voted for Beyer, even if that meant voting Republican. Somehow I don't think Dean fits the role. But Wesley Clark can. He has military experience, and seems to be showing some charisma.
So what does that mean about the Presidential race? Bush has lost four Lichtman keys but right now is holding on to the other nine. If the election were held today, Bush would win easily. Recall that I said that the next Great President would be a Democrat, the one to succeed Bush. Since I don't see Dean filling that role, I conclude that if Dean is nominated, Bush will win. If, however, Clark catches up with Dean and wins the nomination, Bush could be in trouble.
So what's happening? According to recent polls, Clark is catching up to Dean in some of these primaries. The fact that Dean has taken a huge lead this early may work to his disadvantage, because it means that eight Democratic candidates take their ire off Bush and shoot it towards Dean. So Clark's surge may be a sign that Bush is headed for rough times ahead.
Earlier I had said that Dean could be one of the Greatest Presidents in History, rivaling Washington, Lincoln, and FD Roosevelt. But there are some things about Dean that unnerve me. His comments on guys with trucks with Confederate flags, his wanting to appeal to those who believe in literal Gods and Bibles, and his having Don Beyer, a car dealer, as his treasurer. To me, car dealers and repair shops have the least reliability of any place that I have seen. For that reason I never voted for Beyer, even if that meant voting Republican. Somehow I don't think Dean fits the role. But Wesley Clark can. He has military experience, and seems to be showing some charisma.
So what does that mean about the Presidential race? Bush has lost four Lichtman keys but right now is holding on to the other nine. If the election were held today, Bush would win easily. Recall that I said that the next Great President would be a Democrat, the one to succeed Bush. Since I don't see Dean filling that role, I conclude that if Dean is nominated, Bush will win. If, however, Clark catches up with Dean and wins the nomination, Bush could be in trouble.
So what's happening? According to recent polls, Clark is catching up to Dean in some of these primaries. The fact that Dean has taken a huge lead this early may work to his disadvantage, because it means that eight Democratic candidates take their ire off Bush and shoot it towards Dean. So Clark's surge may be a sign that Bush is headed for rough times ahead.
Airline Madness
I may never ride in a commercial aircraft again. There are just too many problems with it.
The problem had been brewing for years. The airlines got crowdeder, more uncomfortable, with fewer amenities, and the lines and traffic jams at airports had been getting worse and worse during the premillennium. The reason for this is evident: demand for airline travel had been steadily increasing, but the capacity has stayed the same, because no new airports were being built. By the end of the last century, the capacity had been reached.
Then along comes Planeattack, on 2001 September 11, to scare off plane travel. For a while, plane travel was nice, if you didn't mind the extra security. But plane travel has picked up again, and again the lines have grown longer and longer, and again the discomfort has gone up and the amenities have gone down, as airlines merged into a precious few monsters. And now security is getting to be a serious problem. An entire concourse of travelers at an airport is evaculated, and even a plane that had just taken off was ordered to reland and disembark, because a pair of scissors was found in a ladies' room. One misguided footballiot runs the wrong way at Hartsfield airport and the whole airport shuts down for hours. All the passengers are forced to disembark and the plane and passengers thoroughly inspected, because some "wires" are found hanging from a passenger - these turn out to be drawstrings on a jacket. And so forth and so forth the absurdities in the air and on the ground continue, with the latest being the repeated jetfighter-escorting and canceling of overseas flights suspected of harboring terrorists. Think how travelers must feel being stranded over there. I may never want to visit Europe for that reason.
Consider my mother's latest plane trip. She was to travel from Rochester to Dulles to Richmond before Yule. Her plane to Dulles gets delayed because of bad weather in Rochester, so much that she would have missed her connection, so she gets on a much later dinnertime flight from Dulles to Richmond. When she gets there, the plane gets delayed and delayed, and eventually canceled, so the airline buses her down to the airport. By car, the distance from Rochester to Richmond, 540 miles, is 9 hours. Her airplane (and bus) trip took 14 hours.
I may travel by air in the future, but it will be rare. If I have to travel from Richmond to Kansas, I will drive, even if it takes two days. I may even want to travel three days by car. If I do fly, I will insist on non-stop flights from origin to destination and drive the rest of the way. There has to be some way out of this airborne lunacy. Hope the politicians are listening.
I may never ride in a commercial aircraft again. There are just too many problems with it.
The problem had been brewing for years. The airlines got crowdeder, more uncomfortable, with fewer amenities, and the lines and traffic jams at airports had been getting worse and worse during the premillennium. The reason for this is evident: demand for airline travel had been steadily increasing, but the capacity has stayed the same, because no new airports were being built. By the end of the last century, the capacity had been reached.
Then along comes Planeattack, on 2001 September 11, to scare off plane travel. For a while, plane travel was nice, if you didn't mind the extra security. But plane travel has picked up again, and again the lines have grown longer and longer, and again the discomfort has gone up and the amenities have gone down, as airlines merged into a precious few monsters. And now security is getting to be a serious problem. An entire concourse of travelers at an airport is evaculated, and even a plane that had just taken off was ordered to reland and disembark, because a pair of scissors was found in a ladies' room. One misguided footballiot runs the wrong way at Hartsfield airport and the whole airport shuts down for hours. All the passengers are forced to disembark and the plane and passengers thoroughly inspected, because some "wires" are found hanging from a passenger - these turn out to be drawstrings on a jacket. And so forth and so forth the absurdities in the air and on the ground continue, with the latest being the repeated jetfighter-escorting and canceling of overseas flights suspected of harboring terrorists. Think how travelers must feel being stranded over there. I may never want to visit Europe for that reason.
Consider my mother's latest plane trip. She was to travel from Rochester to Dulles to Richmond before Yule. Her plane to Dulles gets delayed because of bad weather in Rochester, so much that she would have missed her connection, so she gets on a much later dinnertime flight from Dulles to Richmond. When she gets there, the plane gets delayed and delayed, and eventually canceled, so the airline buses her down to the airport. By car, the distance from Rochester to Richmond, 540 miles, is 9 hours. Her airplane (and bus) trip took 14 hours.
I may travel by air in the future, but it will be rare. If I have to travel from Richmond to Kansas, I will drive, even if it takes two days. I may even want to travel three days by car. If I do fly, I will insist on non-stop flights from origin to destination and drive the rest of the way. There has to be some way out of this airborne lunacy. Hope the politicians are listening.
2003/12/31
The AP Top 10 for 2003 contains what?
It is near the new year as I write this, and one of the stories on the Web is on Fox News, showing the AP top 10 stories of the year. This is good to do to review over the old year before embarking on a new. Here are the top 10 according to the Associated Press:
1. War in Iraq
2. Columbia Disaster
3. California Recall
4. SARS
5. Northeast Blackout
6. Improving Economy
7. California Wildfires
8. Bush Tax Cut
9. Elizabeth Smart
10. Democratic Campaign
One way you can tell if this order is correct is to take two events and see if the higher is really more important than the lower. For example, the California Recall is clearly more important than SARS, since SARS affected at most a million people (counting those that were really concerned about it), while the recall concerned a lot more. Basically this is correct (although I think SARS is somewhat high) with one glaring exception. Elizabeth Smart. This was one single missing person, and so does not qualify as a national story; it is strictly local. So what's it doing on this list? Hurricane Isabel is not on this list, but surely it is more important than Elizabeth Smart. Elizabeth Smart affected only a few people, while Hurricane Isabel affected tens of millions of people. I think the American editors and publishers who contributed to the poll should reconsider their vote. It is really good news that Elizabeth was found alive, but to put this on a list of nationally important events like those that affect the livelihood of millions or those that could determine our next President is sheer hype.
It is near the new year as I write this, and one of the stories on the Web is on Fox News, showing the AP top 10 stories of the year. This is good to do to review over the old year before embarking on a new. Here are the top 10 according to the Associated Press:
1. War in Iraq
2. Columbia Disaster
3. California Recall
4. SARS
5. Northeast Blackout
6. Improving Economy
7. California Wildfires
8. Bush Tax Cut
9. Elizabeth Smart
10. Democratic Campaign
One way you can tell if this order is correct is to take two events and see if the higher is really more important than the lower. For example, the California Recall is clearly more important than SARS, since SARS affected at most a million people (counting those that were really concerned about it), while the recall concerned a lot more. Basically this is correct (although I think SARS is somewhat high) with one glaring exception. Elizabeth Smart. This was one single missing person, and so does not qualify as a national story; it is strictly local. So what's it doing on this list? Hurricane Isabel is not on this list, but surely it is more important than Elizabeth Smart. Elizabeth Smart affected only a few people, while Hurricane Isabel affected tens of millions of people. I think the American editors and publishers who contributed to the poll should reconsider their vote. It is really good news that Elizabeth was found alive, but to put this on a list of nationally important events like those that affect the livelihood of millions or those that could determine our next President is sheer hype.
2003/12/27
Yuletide 2003
Well, I had my Christmas, or Yuletide, as it is for me, since I do not believe in any special significance in Jesus Christ. However, the idea of a special child did take a part in my Yuletide for 2003. I went to a service of the First Unitarian Church of Richmond, and heard a Christmas story by Cyndi Simpson. Yes, this is the same Cyndi Simpson that wanted to give an invocation to the Chesterfield Board of Supervisors, but was not allowed to by the board because of her Wiccan religion. It was a story I had never heard before, of a woman, La Befana, who lived by herself with her cooking and her broom. Yes, according to the cultural stereotype, she was a witch. A parade came to town and a boy ran out to her house, saying they were going to see the Royal Child of Light and give him gifts. So La Befana cooked up a storm and took a whole bunch of gifts for this child, and got her broom to fly and rode it after the parade. She did not find the Child, nor did she ever, but she kept showering gifts on all the children, thinking that any one of them could be the child.
I had heard this story earlier, of someone who was trying to find someone special to give a gift to, but could not find him, so he gave gifts to everyone thinking that any one could be this person. I could see a person hunting around for the perfect job, and that he wants to perform it well, but never find it, and instead does the best he can at each job he gets anyway, thinking that each of these jobs could be the perfect job. I could think of some man hunting for the perfect mate, an L6 (see "Logarithms keep Dr. Brown in Perspective" for definition of L6) or even better, and in the meantime treating each woman he meets as though she were this perfect woman. In each case the protagonist does a lot of good and achieves his purposes with less than the perfect, while hunting down the perfect and never finding it. So I find it quite inspiring, and I am glad to have heard it. It inspired me so much that I wrote a song symbolizing the journey of La Befana.
Well, I had my Christmas, or Yuletide, as it is for me, since I do not believe in any special significance in Jesus Christ. However, the idea of a special child did take a part in my Yuletide for 2003. I went to a service of the First Unitarian Church of Richmond, and heard a Christmas story by Cyndi Simpson. Yes, this is the same Cyndi Simpson that wanted to give an invocation to the Chesterfield Board of Supervisors, but was not allowed to by the board because of her Wiccan religion. It was a story I had never heard before, of a woman, La Befana, who lived by herself with her cooking and her broom. Yes, according to the cultural stereotype, she was a witch. A parade came to town and a boy ran out to her house, saying they were going to see the Royal Child of Light and give him gifts. So La Befana cooked up a storm and took a whole bunch of gifts for this child, and got her broom to fly and rode it after the parade. She did not find the Child, nor did she ever, but she kept showering gifts on all the children, thinking that any one of them could be the child.
I had heard this story earlier, of someone who was trying to find someone special to give a gift to, but could not find him, so he gave gifts to everyone thinking that any one could be this person. I could see a person hunting around for the perfect job, and that he wants to perform it well, but never find it, and instead does the best he can at each job he gets anyway, thinking that each of these jobs could be the perfect job. I could think of some man hunting for the perfect mate, an L6 (see "Logarithms keep Dr. Brown in Perspective" for definition of L6) or even better, and in the meantime treating each woman he meets as though she were this perfect woman. In each case the protagonist does a lot of good and achieves his purposes with less than the perfect, while hunting down the perfect and never finding it. So I find it quite inspiring, and I am glad to have heard it. It inspired me so much that I wrote a song symbolizing the journey of La Befana.
Terror Confusion
Once again we are under Orange Alert. It seems that we have picked up some "chatter" indicating a terrorist attack may be immanent. An Orange Condition is High and means that there is a high chance of a terrorist attack (however, "high" is not very well defined). So of course the media is hyping it up for all they can get. In so doing they are really causing some bad confusion. They say that "The national threat level was elevated to the Orange, or High level earlier this week." They mean that it was increased to that level. It is their use of "elevated" that causes the problem. "Elevated" is the next lower state of terror alert, the Yellow level, one below Orange. So the media seem to be saying that the level is both Yellow and Orange and is really causing some confusion. They should avoid using "elevated" to mean raised to a level, because "elevated" is now a specific term meaning a specific level. It's like saying that tomorrow's weather is cool, man, because it is the first day of the year that it has really gotten warm out. If you really like something, you can say it's cool, but not when describing weather. In the same way, you can say that things have been elevated to another level, but not when describing terror conditions.
Once again we are under Orange Alert. It seems that we have picked up some "chatter" indicating a terrorist attack may be immanent. An Orange Condition is High and means that there is a high chance of a terrorist attack (however, "high" is not very well defined). So of course the media is hyping it up for all they can get. In so doing they are really causing some bad confusion. They say that "The national threat level was elevated to the Orange, or High level earlier this week." They mean that it was increased to that level. It is their use of "elevated" that causes the problem. "Elevated" is the next lower state of terror alert, the Yellow level, one below Orange. So the media seem to be saying that the level is both Yellow and Orange and is really causing some confusion. They should avoid using "elevated" to mean raised to a level, because "elevated" is now a specific term meaning a specific level. It's like saying that tomorrow's weather is cool, man, because it is the first day of the year that it has really gotten warm out. If you really like something, you can say it's cool, but not when describing weather. In the same way, you can say that things have been elevated to another level, but not when describing terror conditions.
2003/12/21
Religious sayings
I heard an interesting sermon from a UU minister today. He got really emphatic at one point in the sermon, and I got his point. To me it can be summarized thus: There is no Promised Land, except for the entire Earth that is the Promised Land for us all. How true that is. Where else in the solar system can we live? Those who think that a certain segment of Earth belongs to them as their Promised Land will find that it doesn't.
Here are other sayings I have come up with, that combine more than one of humankind's religious principles:
Christianity and Islam: Blessed are the meek, the sick, and the downtrodden, for if you don't give to these, you are not a true believer.
Christianity and Zen Buddhism: If you see Christ the Son of God along the road with his host of angels, crucify him.
Islam and Taoism: There is no God but the unspeakable Allah; the Allah of which we speak is not the Real Allah.
And some of my favorite sayings from the world's religions:
Christianity: Let he who has not sinned throw the first stone. - Jesus
Islam: If you don't give to the poor and sick, you are not a true Muslim.
Taoism: The tao that can be spoken is not the Real Tao.
Unitarian-Universalism: We affirm the principle of the never-ending quest for truth and meaning.
Hinduism: There are many paths to the Ultimate, but they all lead to the same goal.
I heard an interesting sermon from a UU minister today. He got really emphatic at one point in the sermon, and I got his point. To me it can be summarized thus: There is no Promised Land, except for the entire Earth that is the Promised Land for us all. How true that is. Where else in the solar system can we live? Those who think that a certain segment of Earth belongs to them as their Promised Land will find that it doesn't.
Here are other sayings I have come up with, that combine more than one of humankind's religious principles:
Christianity and Islam: Blessed are the meek, the sick, and the downtrodden, for if you don't give to these, you are not a true believer.
Christianity and Zen Buddhism: If you see Christ the Son of God along the road with his host of angels, crucify him.
Islam and Taoism: There is no God but the unspeakable Allah; the Allah of which we speak is not the Real Allah.
And some of my favorite sayings from the world's religions:
Christianity: Let he who has not sinned throw the first stone. - Jesus
Islam: If you don't give to the poor and sick, you are not a true Muslim.
Taoism: The tao that can be spoken is not the Real Tao.
Unitarian-Universalism: We affirm the principle of the never-ending quest for truth and meaning.
Hinduism: There are many paths to the Ultimate, but they all lead to the same goal.
Yuletide Fantasy Run 2003
Once again I ran at night this season to find out what kind of Yule displays there were. My rules were the same as past years, with the main one being that white floodlights eliminate a house from being my Display of the Year. I found many interesting displays, and also a few dark areas. The house with the star at the top radiating from it to the ground and a lit up ground was still there. One lot had red lights all over a series of bushes, while another one had reindeer that moved their heads. The Display of the Year for me this year was the one with the star at the top. Another house had lights all over the trees in the yard up high in the air, and it looked really impressive when you stand next to it; however, he had a floodlight on the roof blaring down on it incongruously. I have a Star Saver award, as well. To qualify for this, a display must have absolutely no white lights of any kind. I did not see too many like that. My own house does not qualify, but if you turn off the white lights in the front, it does, and is my choice for this year, featuring two colorful trees in the windows and twelve red 3-candle candelabras. The most unusual display featured three flat snowmen kicking their feet in their air. So that's it for this year.
Once again I ran at night this season to find out what kind of Yule displays there were. My rules were the same as past years, with the main one being that white floodlights eliminate a house from being my Display of the Year. I found many interesting displays, and also a few dark areas. The house with the star at the top radiating from it to the ground and a lit up ground was still there. One lot had red lights all over a series of bushes, while another one had reindeer that moved their heads. The Display of the Year for me this year was the one with the star at the top. Another house had lights all over the trees in the yard up high in the air, and it looked really impressive when you stand next to it; however, he had a floodlight on the roof blaring down on it incongruously. I have a Star Saver award, as well. To qualify for this, a display must have absolutely no white lights of any kind. I did not see too many like that. My own house does not qualify, but if you turn off the white lights in the front, it does, and is my choice for this year, featuring two colorful trees in the windows and twelve red 3-candle candelabras. The most unusual display featured three flat snowmen kicking their feet in their air. So that's it for this year.
2003/12/15
Will Dean Be One of Our Greatest Presidents?
So how does the Presidential race look right now, with Saddam captured? It will give an immediate boost to Bush, but it won't last. Already, attacks are continuing at pretty much the same pace as before. Since Saddam had no cellular phone and absolutely no way of communicating with others on the outside, therefore, the bulk of insurgents in Iraq are anti-US rather than pro-Saddam, and so they will not go away. So there will be basically no change.
Right now it seems that Bush will get elected unless the Iraq situation gets out of hand so bad that it causes keys to topple, and the economy sputters. This is certainly possible. But what it means is that if Dean is elected, then these things will have occurred. This means that Dean will have a hard task ahead of him, trying to run a country whose economy is listless and with the Iraq situation getting even worse than ever. I don't know if I want that kind of job; it would be highly stressful. If Bush gets elected, that means he will have either a good economy or a good situation in Iraq with him, or both, so he will have an easy time of it.
But look - how will the economy topple and Iraq get much worse? By the Fourth Turning starting then, that's how. These conditions will smack Bush in the face and lead to his defeat, leaving Dean with the task of putting it back together. Dean will be a Fourth Turning President, and the previous Fourth Turning Presidents - Washington, Lincoln, and FD Roosevelt, have been the greatest Presidents we have had. This means, unlikely as it seems now, that Dean will become one of our greatest Presidents also. He will be the one that will get us over the Iraq mess, a weak economy or even a depression, and the results of the upcoming oil and other resources shortage.
However, if Bush gets elected, that will because 2005 will enter still in the Third Turning. During Bush's second term, he will get whacked by the Fourth Turning - probably the oil shortage, and he will either resign or lose the next election in a landslide, perhaps to Hillary Clinton. This means that Bush will go down in history as one of our bottom-tier presidents, and Hillary will be one of our Greatest Presidents.
So it is interesting that the answer to the question, "Is being the President of this country going to be an enormous challenge?" will be Yes if Dean gets elected and No if Bush gets re-elected, and this is concluded based on a combination of the Lichtman Keys theory and the Fourth Turning theory. It will be interesting to see what happens.
So how does the Presidential race look right now, with Saddam captured? It will give an immediate boost to Bush, but it won't last. Already, attacks are continuing at pretty much the same pace as before. Since Saddam had no cellular phone and absolutely no way of communicating with others on the outside, therefore, the bulk of insurgents in Iraq are anti-US rather than pro-Saddam, and so they will not go away. So there will be basically no change.
Right now it seems that Bush will get elected unless the Iraq situation gets out of hand so bad that it causes keys to topple, and the economy sputters. This is certainly possible. But what it means is that if Dean is elected, then these things will have occurred. This means that Dean will have a hard task ahead of him, trying to run a country whose economy is listless and with the Iraq situation getting even worse than ever. I don't know if I want that kind of job; it would be highly stressful. If Bush gets elected, that means he will have either a good economy or a good situation in Iraq with him, or both, so he will have an easy time of it.
But look - how will the economy topple and Iraq get much worse? By the Fourth Turning starting then, that's how. These conditions will smack Bush in the face and lead to his defeat, leaving Dean with the task of putting it back together. Dean will be a Fourth Turning President, and the previous Fourth Turning Presidents - Washington, Lincoln, and FD Roosevelt, have been the greatest Presidents we have had. This means, unlikely as it seems now, that Dean will become one of our greatest Presidents also. He will be the one that will get us over the Iraq mess, a weak economy or even a depression, and the results of the upcoming oil and other resources shortage.
However, if Bush gets elected, that will because 2005 will enter still in the Third Turning. During Bush's second term, he will get whacked by the Fourth Turning - probably the oil shortage, and he will either resign or lose the next election in a landslide, perhaps to Hillary Clinton. This means that Bush will go down in history as one of our bottom-tier presidents, and Hillary will be one of our Greatest Presidents.
So it is interesting that the answer to the question, "Is being the President of this country going to be an enormous challenge?" will be Yes if Dean gets elected and No if Bush gets re-elected, and this is concluded based on a combination of the Lichtman Keys theory and the Fourth Turning theory. It will be interesting to see what happens.
2003/12/14
We Got Him!
Today when I got up and looked at the Web I saw an unlikely but possible event had just happened. US and other forces in Iraq had captured Saddam Hussein! This sounds like a joyous day, especially for Iraq. The dictator has been captured. He was the Ace of Spades. But Iraq reminds me more of chess than of cards. They captured a bishop there, a pawn here, and here a rook gets captured, and then over the summer a couple of queens. Today, however, was checkmate. Supposedly the game is over. But I also thought about Dorothy's arrival in Oz that killed the Wicked Witch of the East. The people all started singing "Oh, Ho, the Wicked Witch, the Wicked Witch is dead!" and I thought of the Lewis Carroll poem "Jabberwocky", and especially the lyrics "Oh frabjous day! Calloo! Callay!" and "Hast Thou Killed the Jabberwock, my Son?"
This Jabberwock is not dead, however. That is good, because he can talk about what's been going on in Iraq for the past 30 years or so. Now with the head of the old regime gone, it seems that things should improve remarkably in Iraq. Indeed, this may happen. Perhaps the people conducting the attacks were so doing in Saddam's name, and with Saddam captured, the appeal of his mystique may vanish.
However, there are some who think other things may happen. An article by Ayaz Amir in the Pakistani web periodical Dawn, says this: "If Saddam were captured or killed, this resistance, far from dying down, would gather more strength." He says this is because the resistance to occupation forces is more broad-based than just Saddam loyalists and is focused more on America.
So now we need to know which is the case. That may determine whether Bush gets reelected. If the Iraq situation remarkably improves, he may become unbeatable, as Lichtman himself said today. If the Iraq situation gets worse, Bush may squeak by if the economy stays good, but if it deteriorates, then Bush is in trouble. The next two or three weeks may tell the story.
Today when I got up and looked at the Web I saw an unlikely but possible event had just happened. US and other forces in Iraq had captured Saddam Hussein! This sounds like a joyous day, especially for Iraq. The dictator has been captured. He was the Ace of Spades. But Iraq reminds me more of chess than of cards. They captured a bishop there, a pawn here, and here a rook gets captured, and then over the summer a couple of queens. Today, however, was checkmate. Supposedly the game is over. But I also thought about Dorothy's arrival in Oz that killed the Wicked Witch of the East. The people all started singing "Oh, Ho, the Wicked Witch, the Wicked Witch is dead!" and I thought of the Lewis Carroll poem "Jabberwocky", and especially the lyrics "Oh frabjous day! Calloo! Callay!" and "Hast Thou Killed the Jabberwock, my Son?"
This Jabberwock is not dead, however. That is good, because he can talk about what's been going on in Iraq for the past 30 years or so. Now with the head of the old regime gone, it seems that things should improve remarkably in Iraq. Indeed, this may happen. Perhaps the people conducting the attacks were so doing in Saddam's name, and with Saddam captured, the appeal of his mystique may vanish.
However, there are some who think other things may happen. An article by Ayaz Amir in the Pakistani web periodical Dawn, says this: "If Saddam were captured or killed, this resistance, far from dying down, would gather more strength." He says this is because the resistance to occupation forces is more broad-based than just Saddam loyalists and is focused more on America.
So now we need to know which is the case. That may determine whether Bush gets reelected. If the Iraq situation remarkably improves, he may become unbeatable, as Lichtman himself said today. If the Iraq situation gets worse, Bush may squeak by if the economy stays good, but if it deteriorates, then Bush is in trouble. The next two or three weeks may tell the story.
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