Did Casper Weinberger predict the War in Iraq?

In the late 1990s I read an interesting book by former US Defense Secretary Casper Weinberger, The Next War. This book is a fascinating look at what war could be like in the future, including wars against Russia, China, and North Korea. But it is the War with Mexico in 2003 that is now of interest. To me it seems the war is occurring! The main difference is that the war is not against Mexico but against Iraq.

According to the Weinberger scenario, in 1999 June, the president of Mexico is assassinated, and Eduardo Francisco Ruiz takes over later that year, and sets up a radical regime in which he denounces Washington and makes numerous policy changes in Mexico's government. Over the next three years, huge waves of immigrants, millions, of them, flee the country into the United States, prompting US officials to call for action. Eventually the Mexicans overrun the US embassy.

The US decides to take action against Mexico, so they pile up troops in neighboring Texas, Arizona, New Mexico and California. Then the US invades, on 2003 April 14, quickly going to Mexico City, where they are greeted with cheers. However, absolutely no sign of the Ruiz regime is present; all the offices are empty. The US then charges into the badlands northwest of Mexico City and encounter a force of Mexicans. A fierce battle with casualties on both sides ensues, and eventually US forces prevail, and a new government is set up with aid from the US military. However, no sign of Ruiz is ever found.

It seems to me that is what is happening in Iraq! The date is even close; 2003 April 14 will probably be the end of the war instead of the beginning, but it is close enough. Like with Mexico in Weinberger's book, US troops quickly invade from a neighboring desert, and walk in mostly unhindered into Baghdad. The terrain is also similar: desert with some big cities. If the rest of the scenario goes according to Weinberger, there will be some fierce fighting in northern Iraq, and eventually the US will prevail, but we may never be able to find any of the senior Iraqi leadership, including Saddam Hussein.

So it seems to me that Weinberger was correct; it is just that he got the country wrong. So maybe a look at his other scenarios may be warranted.

The Fourth Turning

In 1996 William Strauss and Neil Howe wrote a book called the The Fourth Turning, in which the authors find that the four phases of life (childhood, young adulthood, midlife, and elderhood) and the four generational groups (prophet, nomad, hero, adaptive) imply a series of periods or "turnings" of history, which he numbers from First to Fourth. The Fourth Turning is a crisis period in which society is reconstructed. According to the authors, that should begin around 2005. I found an article from them today, however, that suggests that maybe it has already started: http://www.axess.se/english/currentissue/millennial_generation.php. The authors talks mostly about generations but suggests that Planeattack (that is, 9/11) was the catalyst that started this Fourth Turning. So is the crisis upon us?

Some Interesting Google Searches

Here is a new game. Think of a word and enter just that word into news.google.com, the news google search site. You will get the latest news that has that word. For example, today, entering "dead" yields "Is Saddam dead?" Here are some other ones:

dead: Is Saddam dead?
Baghdad: Allies tighten control over Baghdad.
51st state: Iraq, the 51st state?
kerry: Kerry calls for US regime change.
ill: Illinois. 3rd talks about SARS
war: the endless war.
tulip: The Commonwealth Chess Championship from April 20

I think that "51st state" was the most interesting of these. But be sure if your tulips are in check to get them out of check.