Isabel looks like Gloria: Report 5
Here are the past few runs' results:
September 12
0Z - Delmarva Peninsula
6Z - Skirting Delmarva, enter at New Jersey
12Z - Delmarva Peninsula, then towards Buffalo, NY
18Z - Delmarva, VA, then towards Buffalo, NY
September 13
0Z - New England
6Z - New Jersey and Long Island
Yesterday the runs were all alike, and they corresponded with other runs too. They imply a landfall somewhere in Eastern Virginia, which had me concerned. Isabel was going to come in at an unusual angle, headed northwest. Then this morning's runs come in saying that it is going to miss Virginia altogether and head to New England, and at 6Z, it came a little closer, heading to Long Island. The other models don't seem to go out far enough, and they are hard to find on the Internet. But I did find GEM, which is a Canadian model, and that one looked really interesting. Isabel would head to Norfolk, skim by Norfolk and Baltimore about 150 miles off shore, then make like it was going out to sea. Then it makes a subtle turn to the Northwest and scores a bulls-eye on New York City, on downtown Manhattan. Considering what happened two years ago, I think New York will be well prepared for this storm if that happens.
But where will it actually go? There is still some variance in the models. I looked at past history and found that Isabel is different from Fran, different from Hugo, different from Floyd. Hugo really concerned me. It hit Charlotte, NC with 85 mph winds, causing power outages to 95% of the city and covering some streets with downed trees, and this is as far inland as Richmond is.
I got a clue this morning from the track. It looks a lot like Gloria in 1985. The path is similar, going north of the Caribbean islands and then heading for the Outer Banks. Like Isabel, Gloria had high winds, up to 150 mph, and a really low pressure besides. As Gloria approached, the winds died down, as Isabel appears to be doing now. Further there was a weak tropical storm named Henri (this was 18 years ago and hurricanes repeat names every 6 years, and 6 divides 18 evenly) just like now that went up the coast before the big storm arrives. Like now, there was a front going across the mid part of the nation, from Wisconsin to eastern Texas.
So to determine where Isabel is going, look at how it differs from Gloria. Gloria's Henri, for instance, developed out of nowhere off South Carolina and then went up the coast in a straight line. 2003's Henri developed in the Gulf of Mexico instead, crossed Florida and petered apart a while in the Atlantic before moving west to hit the coast, then move northward. This does not tell much about where Isabel is going, but we need to look at differences between the storms to give us a clue.
A Journey through Blogrealm
Blogtrek
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2003/09/13
2003/09/11
It's the Economy, Sir
I think I may have a fix for what is going to happen in next year's Presidential election. It looks like Bush is going to be elected, but this is not certain. In fact, in 1991 September, a Lichtman key analysis would have yielded a probable George HW Bush (Daddy Bush?) win. In fact, the two Bushes are in quite similar positions.
Back to 1991. It looked like at this time that George HW Bush would win the election over which Democrat the Democrats could come up with - there were at least six candidates, or "dwarfs". Bush had the Foreign/Military Failure Key 10 (i.e., none happened), the Incumbency Key 3, the Mandate Key 1, the Challenger Charisma Key 13, and the Scandal Key 9. He had lost four keys: the Short Term Economy Key 5, the Policy Key 7, the Long Term Economy Key 6, and the Incumbent Charisma Key 12. There were 4 keys in play: the Short Term Economy Key 5, and a group of three keys I call the "Dissatisfaction" keys, because their falling represents public discontent with the President or his party. These are Social Unrest Key 8, Challenge to Party Nomination Key 2, and Third Party key 4. The economy was not going well at all, with high unemployment and stocks going flat. But it was beginning to pick up. It looked like Bush would win unless the economy stayed sour, losing Key 5, and this caused so much dissatisfaction that one of the Dissatisfaction Keys falls as well. But we all know that is indeed what happened. The economy stayed sour in perception; although the economy was growing again in 1992, the high unemployment rate made people think the economy was ailing. This led to an unknown rich blowhard named Ross Perot, when he entered the race, to get so many votes that he actually led at times. After he lost the lead, the Democratic challenger (Bill Clinton) took the lead and won the election.
In 2003, it looks like the same circumstances prevail. Dubya Bush has won the same keys and lost the same keys as his father in 1991, except that Daddy had Key 10 but not Key 1 and Dubya has Key 1 (result of Republican sweep of 2002 elections) but not Key 10 (because of Planeattack). Exactly the same keys are outstanding. The economy is weak, but starting to grow, as in 1991, and like 1991 has a high unemployment rate. The Democrats have to choose among 9 dwarfs. Like Daddy Bush, Dubya had won a war big in Iraq. So it would seem the same thing can be predicted here: Bush, unless the economy sags, taking another key down with it.
But the situation is not as favorable as 1991's. In 1991 we had Wallfall (1989 Nov 9); in 2003 we have Towerfall (2001 Sept 11). People were talking freedom, with all these countries getting free of dictatorial rule, in 1991, but were talking security out of fear of terrorist attacks in 2003. And the recession and stagnant stock prices have lasted longer now than they had in 1991. Both Bushes won big in Iraq, but after Gulf War I the soldiers went home, but after this year's Gulf War, the soldiers are staying in Iraq for an infinite amount of time. So to me if the economy continues to stay bad, dissatisfaction against Dubya would be greater than against Daddy in 1991-2. It will be amplified by the dissatisfaction caused by the extended tours of duty in Iraq. (When is my honey coming home?) And we know that Daddy lost Key 5 plus another key, namely 4 and lost the election. So it would follow that Dubya would lose the election even more badly; in fact, two dissatisfaction keys may fall. I know that there is nothing now that would turn the dissatisfaction keys, but if the economy continues to sour, I predict that some of these will fall, along with the short term economy key and that would do Dubya in. However, if the economy does perk up, the dissatisfaction keys will stand; with only 4 keys down, Dubya will win.
So it all depends on the economy now. If it gets substantially better, President Bush will win; if it continues to stagnate, he will lose. So watch the markets and the economy data; they are key to the election.
I think I may have a fix for what is going to happen in next year's Presidential election. It looks like Bush is going to be elected, but this is not certain. In fact, in 1991 September, a Lichtman key analysis would have yielded a probable George HW Bush (Daddy Bush?) win. In fact, the two Bushes are in quite similar positions.
Back to 1991. It looked like at this time that George HW Bush would win the election over which Democrat the Democrats could come up with - there were at least six candidates, or "dwarfs". Bush had the Foreign/Military Failure Key 10 (i.e., none happened), the Incumbency Key 3, the Mandate Key 1, the Challenger Charisma Key 13, and the Scandal Key 9. He had lost four keys: the Short Term Economy Key 5, the Policy Key 7, the Long Term Economy Key 6, and the Incumbent Charisma Key 12. There were 4 keys in play: the Short Term Economy Key 5, and a group of three keys I call the "Dissatisfaction" keys, because their falling represents public discontent with the President or his party. These are Social Unrest Key 8, Challenge to Party Nomination Key 2, and Third Party key 4. The economy was not going well at all, with high unemployment and stocks going flat. But it was beginning to pick up. It looked like Bush would win unless the economy stayed sour, losing Key 5, and this caused so much dissatisfaction that one of the Dissatisfaction Keys falls as well. But we all know that is indeed what happened. The economy stayed sour in perception; although the economy was growing again in 1992, the high unemployment rate made people think the economy was ailing. This led to an unknown rich blowhard named Ross Perot, when he entered the race, to get so many votes that he actually led at times. After he lost the lead, the Democratic challenger (Bill Clinton) took the lead and won the election.
In 2003, it looks like the same circumstances prevail. Dubya Bush has won the same keys and lost the same keys as his father in 1991, except that Daddy had Key 10 but not Key 1 and Dubya has Key 1 (result of Republican sweep of 2002 elections) but not Key 10 (because of Planeattack). Exactly the same keys are outstanding. The economy is weak, but starting to grow, as in 1991, and like 1991 has a high unemployment rate. The Democrats have to choose among 9 dwarfs. Like Daddy Bush, Dubya had won a war big in Iraq. So it would seem the same thing can be predicted here: Bush, unless the economy sags, taking another key down with it.
But the situation is not as favorable as 1991's. In 1991 we had Wallfall (1989 Nov 9); in 2003 we have Towerfall (2001 Sept 11). People were talking freedom, with all these countries getting free of dictatorial rule, in 1991, but were talking security out of fear of terrorist attacks in 2003. And the recession and stagnant stock prices have lasted longer now than they had in 1991. Both Bushes won big in Iraq, but after Gulf War I the soldiers went home, but after this year's Gulf War, the soldiers are staying in Iraq for an infinite amount of time. So to me if the economy continues to stay bad, dissatisfaction against Dubya would be greater than against Daddy in 1991-2. It will be amplified by the dissatisfaction caused by the extended tours of duty in Iraq. (When is my honey coming home?) And we know that Daddy lost Key 5 plus another key, namely 4 and lost the election. So it would follow that Dubya would lose the election even more badly; in fact, two dissatisfaction keys may fall. I know that there is nothing now that would turn the dissatisfaction keys, but if the economy continues to sour, I predict that some of these will fall, along with the short term economy key and that would do Dubya in. However, if the economy does perk up, the dissatisfaction keys will stand; with only 4 keys down, Dubya will win.
So it all depends on the economy now. If it gets substantially better, President Bush will win; if it continues to stagnate, he will lose. So watch the markets and the economy data; they are key to the election.
Where is it headed? Isabel report 4
This morning I got a jolt. For the past day or so, the GFS runs have been indicating that it would go by peninsular Florida, then head out to the northeast and hit the Carolinas, and Gary Gray came to that conclusion also. I looked at the GFS run this morning and found to my surprise that it was going to go to New Jersey instead! That would have meant hurricane force winds in New York City. The 12Z run took it to eastern Nova Scotia, and 18Z has it pounding the Canadian Maritimes and causing a major disaster there. So now what? Where is this thing going? It is starting to go east and pop all over the place again.
Tonight I took a look at Gary Gray's take on the storm. He says that the GFS tends to let go of ridges and troughs too soon, and in Isabel's case that would take it farther to the east. The maps indicate a huge high in the north Atlantic that blocks Isabel and makes it go west. He concentrated on other models, including one called ECMWF. So I took a look at that myself. It only goes 6 days and at that time, next Wednesday, it has it out in the middle of the Atlantic, but in a trajectory that would take it to New England. So it sort of agrees with GFS. Gary Gray winds up concluding that it is likely to hit either the Carolinas or New England. So both areas need to watch for this storm.
The other thing I notice about it is Wow!! It is up to 160 mph, making it a Category 5 hurricane. This has me concerned. Sustained 160 mph winds would really cause damage to an area. Even 140 mph winds would, if it should weaken a bit before hitting shore. So that has me concerned about hurricane force (75 mph) winds in my area, which would knock trees down everywhere and cause some roof damage. But it is not the most forceful tropical storm out there now. Typhoon Maemi had 175 mph winds gusting to 205 mph and is forecast to turn northeast and go between Korea and Japan; it is now down to 140 mph.
This morning I got a jolt. For the past day or so, the GFS runs have been indicating that it would go by peninsular Florida, then head out to the northeast and hit the Carolinas, and Gary Gray came to that conclusion also. I looked at the GFS run this morning and found to my surprise that it was going to go to New Jersey instead! That would have meant hurricane force winds in New York City. The 12Z run took it to eastern Nova Scotia, and 18Z has it pounding the Canadian Maritimes and causing a major disaster there. So now what? Where is this thing going? It is starting to go east and pop all over the place again.
Tonight I took a look at Gary Gray's take on the storm. He says that the GFS tends to let go of ridges and troughs too soon, and in Isabel's case that would take it farther to the east. The maps indicate a huge high in the north Atlantic that blocks Isabel and makes it go west. He concentrated on other models, including one called ECMWF. So I took a look at that myself. It only goes 6 days and at that time, next Wednesday, it has it out in the middle of the Atlantic, but in a trajectory that would take it to New England. So it sort of agrees with GFS. Gary Gray winds up concluding that it is likely to hit either the Carolinas or New England. So both areas need to watch for this storm.
The other thing I notice about it is Wow!! It is up to 160 mph, making it a Category 5 hurricane. This has me concerned. Sustained 160 mph winds would really cause damage to an area. Even 140 mph winds would, if it should weaken a bit before hitting shore. So that has me concerned about hurricane force (75 mph) winds in my area, which would knock trees down everywhere and cause some roof damage. But it is not the most forceful tropical storm out there now. Typhoon Maemi had 175 mph winds gusting to 205 mph and is forecast to turn northeast and go between Korea and Japan; it is now down to 140 mph.
2003/09/10
Isabel Report 3: Consistency Developing
Here are the runs since yesterday of GFS, showing where Isabel strikes:
0Z - Charleston, SC
6Z - hanging off the coast of central/southern Florida for 4 days, then head to Charleston, SC
12Z - grazes east coast of Florida, then hits NC and gets into Central Virginia, in one day
18Z - hits Miami, then turns north, scrapes the entire Florida coast, goes off the coast along the Carolinas and Virginia, giving them a deluge.
There is some agreement in these runs now. They aren't popping all over the place, Florida one hour, Nova Scotia the next, sea after that, and so forth. They are settling down on a path towards Florida, then coming up the Southeastern seaboard. So it seems that this is where Isabel is headed. The manner is still undecided; one run hangs it around Miami for 4 days, the others move it quickly. But they agree on Florida, Carolinas, and Virginia, and this is the area that needs to watch the most for Isabel. These areas need to keep abreast of the storm.
Further, I notice another storm coming. Unless some mess somewhere develops a wind and circulation, this will be called Juan. It is forming off the coast of Africa right now and will follow the path of Fabian and Isabel. However, it looks like this one will turn out to sea.
2003 September 10 2124. I just got Gary Gray's analysis. He is making a prediction. Yes, this is 10-12 days out, yet he is making a prediction. He agrees with me that the model runs are showing consistency from run to run and among the rather sparse set of models as well. He says the hurricane will move just north of the Bahamas, turn north, then northeast, then hit the Carolinas. He does not say that Florida will be hit, whereas I say it above. He mentions that the GFS has a solution that almost takes it into the Gulf of Mexico before a ridge catches it, pulls it up the Florida coast, then skirts it by the Carolinas. But other models call for it to be farther east, missing Florida. Apparently Isabel is headed our way; it's going to be like Floyd in 1999. I still say interests in Florida and the Carolinas should watch this storm carefully.
Here are the runs since yesterday of GFS, showing where Isabel strikes:
0Z - Charleston, SC
6Z - hanging off the coast of central/southern Florida for 4 days, then head to Charleston, SC
12Z - grazes east coast of Florida, then hits NC and gets into Central Virginia, in one day
18Z - hits Miami, then turns north, scrapes the entire Florida coast, goes off the coast along the Carolinas and Virginia, giving them a deluge.
There is some agreement in these runs now. They aren't popping all over the place, Florida one hour, Nova Scotia the next, sea after that, and so forth. They are settling down on a path towards Florida, then coming up the Southeastern seaboard. So it seems that this is where Isabel is headed. The manner is still undecided; one run hangs it around Miami for 4 days, the others move it quickly. But they agree on Florida, Carolinas, and Virginia, and this is the area that needs to watch the most for Isabel. These areas need to keep abreast of the storm.
Further, I notice another storm coming. Unless some mess somewhere develops a wind and circulation, this will be called Juan. It is forming off the coast of Africa right now and will follow the path of Fabian and Isabel. However, it looks like this one will turn out to sea.
2003 September 10 2124. I just got Gary Gray's analysis. He is making a prediction. Yes, this is 10-12 days out, yet he is making a prediction. He agrees with me that the model runs are showing consistency from run to run and among the rather sparse set of models as well. He says the hurricane will move just north of the Bahamas, turn north, then northeast, then hit the Carolinas. He does not say that Florida will be hit, whereas I say it above. He mentions that the GFS has a solution that almost takes it into the Gulf of Mexico before a ridge catches it, pulls it up the Florida coast, then skirts it by the Carolinas. But other models call for it to be farther east, missing Florida. Apparently Isabel is headed our way; it's going to be like Floyd in 1999. I still say interests in Florida and the Carolinas should watch this storm carefully.
2003/09/09
Square Root of an Acre
A long time ago I heard of a book with the title "The Square Root of Tuesday". It was a book about mathematics education, although I remember little else about it, except for the title, which is nonsensical. Square roots apply only to numbers, and only to non-negative real numbers at that, usually. The square root of 4 is 2, and the square root of 3 is 1.732. . . But such things as the square root of one of my cats or of a democratic state constitution or of Tuesday doesn't make sense, nor does, it seems, the square root of an acre.
But wait. Google has a great new service. It used to be that if you type 2 + 3 in Google, you get sites containing 2 + 3; usually mathematics sites but maybe a few others who are trying to demonstrate simple arithmetic. But now when you try it, you get 2 + 3 = 5, and a comment to click here to find sites containing "2 + 3". In other words, Google is now a calculator! If you have access to the Internet, you don't need a calculator. Just type in what you want to compute and get the answer. For example, try 3/7. You get 0.428571428 or something like that. sin(pi/6) gets you 0.5. Sqrt(2) gets you 1.41421356. Sqrt(-1) gets you i. That's right, Google does complex arithmetic. Now here it is on shaky ground. Minus one has two square roots which are negative of each other, and you can't tell which is which, but Google states unequivocally that it is i. This leads into trouble with other expressions as it makes unwarranted selections of answers in those cases where the answer is ambiguous. But Google has done it again!
It even works with units. For example, "1 inch in centimeters" yields "1 inch = 25.4 centimeters". "(60 mph) * (9 hours)" yields "540 miles". But sqrt(Tuesday) gets you a list of web sites containing sqrt and Tuesday. No, that does not make sense. Even "1/0" yields merely a list of sites containing 1/0; it does not show the calculator, for you can't divide by zero. But if you try sqrt(acre), you get "sqrt(acre) = 63.6149072 meters". Google can take the square root of an acre! But does it make sense? It sure does. An acre is a unit of area, 43,560 square feet. The square root of a square foot is a foot. Even though a foot is not a number, it can be squared to yield square feet, and so the square root of a square foot does make sense. And so does the square root of an acre. Further, you get results when you try "gallon^(1/3)" (i.e., the cube root of a gallon), "2 inches^3 in teaspoons", and even "(1 gallon)^(2/3)" as you can demonstrate by entering them in Google - the latter is an area.
So although many people don't recognize that it makes sense to talk about the square root of an acre, Google certainly does, and I will remember that every time I go to work and walk from my car to my building - that is about the square root of an acre.
A long time ago I heard of a book with the title "The Square Root of Tuesday". It was a book about mathematics education, although I remember little else about it, except for the title, which is nonsensical. Square roots apply only to numbers, and only to non-negative real numbers at that, usually. The square root of 4 is 2, and the square root of 3 is 1.732. . . But such things as the square root of one of my cats or of a democratic state constitution or of Tuesday doesn't make sense, nor does, it seems, the square root of an acre.
But wait. Google has a great new service. It used to be that if you type 2 + 3 in Google, you get sites containing 2 + 3; usually mathematics sites but maybe a few others who are trying to demonstrate simple arithmetic. But now when you try it, you get 2 + 3 = 5, and a comment to click here to find sites containing "2 + 3". In other words, Google is now a calculator! If you have access to the Internet, you don't need a calculator. Just type in what you want to compute and get the answer. For example, try 3/7. You get 0.428571428 or something like that. sin(pi/6) gets you 0.5. Sqrt(2) gets you 1.41421356. Sqrt(-1) gets you i. That's right, Google does complex arithmetic. Now here it is on shaky ground. Minus one has two square roots which are negative of each other, and you can't tell which is which, but Google states unequivocally that it is i. This leads into trouble with other expressions as it makes unwarranted selections of answers in those cases where the answer is ambiguous. But Google has done it again!
It even works with units. For example, "1 inch in centimeters" yields "1 inch = 25.4 centimeters". "(60 mph) * (9 hours)" yields "540 miles". But sqrt(Tuesday) gets you a list of web sites containing sqrt and Tuesday. No, that does not make sense. Even "1/0" yields merely a list of sites containing 1/0; it does not show the calculator, for you can't divide by zero. But if you try sqrt(acre), you get "sqrt(acre) = 63.6149072 meters". Google can take the square root of an acre! But does it make sense? It sure does. An acre is a unit of area, 43,560 square feet. The square root of a square foot is a foot. Even though a foot is not a number, it can be squared to yield square feet, and so the square root of a square foot does make sense. And so does the square root of an acre. Further, you get results when you try "gallon^(1/3)" (i.e., the cube root of a gallon), "2 inches^3 in teaspoons", and even "(1 gallon)^(2/3)" as you can demonstrate by entering them in Google - the latter is an area.
So although many people don't recognize that it makes sense to talk about the square root of an acre, Google certainly does, and I will remember that every time I go to work and walk from my car to my building - that is about the square root of an acre.
Isabel Day 2: Deep Impact
Isabel is continuing to head north of west. Forecasters have been saying she should head due west, but so far it has not happened. She has reached 20 degrees north, and according to these forecasters, she should now turn west. We will see if she does so.
In the meantime, I have four more Isabel scenarios from GFS. The latest one takes it right into central Virginia, where it piles more rain than we ever need this year. Here is the Isabel summary, where the 0, 6, 12 and 18 are the hours of the runs in Universal Time:
2003 September 7
12 - New England
18 - sea
2003 September 8
0 - Maine
6 - S. Florida
12 - Nova Scotia
18 - Delmarva, Baltimore 2003 Sept 21 2 am EDT
2003 September 9
0 - sea, turning around on 2003 Sept 23 8 pm EDT
6 - Nova Scotia 2003 Sept 23 2 am EDT
12 - Myrtle Beach (another Floyd) 2003 Sept 23 8 pm EDT
18 - S. Florida, then heads up to Central Virginia 2003 September 23
That's the date it strikes Florida. It strikes Virginia a day later, and then heads towards New York City. This pattern of hitting some place on the East Coast has now come with about 75% of the runs. As Gary Gray says, "It remains way too early to say anything solid on that. Suffice it to say that the model trends and unanimity favor some sort of impact." You heard it folks. Deep Impact is coming. It's two weeks away. Where it will strike is anybody's guess - might as well play roulette. But it's likely to impact somewhere, so the entire East Coast should monitor this storm.
Isabel is continuing to head north of west. Forecasters have been saying she should head due west, but so far it has not happened. She has reached 20 degrees north, and according to these forecasters, she should now turn west. We will see if she does so.
In the meantime, I have four more Isabel scenarios from GFS. The latest one takes it right into central Virginia, where it piles more rain than we ever need this year. Here is the Isabel summary, where the 0, 6, 12 and 18 are the hours of the runs in Universal Time:
2003 September 7
12 - New England
18 - sea
2003 September 8
0 - Maine
6 - S. Florida
12 - Nova Scotia
18 - Delmarva, Baltimore 2003 Sept 21 2 am EDT
2003 September 9
0 - sea, turning around on 2003 Sept 23 8 pm EDT
6 - Nova Scotia 2003 Sept 23 2 am EDT
12 - Myrtle Beach (another Floyd) 2003 Sept 23 8 pm EDT
18 - S. Florida, then heads up to Central Virginia 2003 September 23
That's the date it strikes Florida. It strikes Virginia a day later, and then heads towards New York City. This pattern of hitting some place on the East Coast has now come with about 75% of the runs. As Gary Gray says, "It remains way too early to say anything solid on that. Suffice it to say that the model trends and unanimity favor some sort of impact." You heard it folks. Deep Impact is coming. It's two weeks away. Where it will strike is anybody's guess - might as well play roulette. But it's likely to impact somewhere, so the entire East Coast should monitor this storm.
The Quarter War is Over
Earlier I said that I had declared "Quarter War" because I had yet to see a Maine quarter, even though it came out three months ago, and because I have seen Missouri quarters, so that Maine got outlapped. So I have been arranging my purchases to maximize the number of quarters I get. I continued to get older states and eagles until it finally happened. I got some cookies at 2 pm today from a vending machine, and it vended me a Maine quarter! It was a P for Philadelphia. I finally have it. It is now on my state quarter map at home. The Quarter War is now officially over. I am now awaiting the next coin, Arkansas, which should come out next month.
Earlier I said that I had declared "Quarter War" because I had yet to see a Maine quarter, even though it came out three months ago, and because I have seen Missouri quarters, so that Maine got outlapped. So I have been arranging my purchases to maximize the number of quarters I get. I continued to get older states and eagles until it finally happened. I got some cookies at 2 pm today from a vending machine, and it vended me a Maine quarter! It was a P for Philadelphia. I finally have it. It is now on my state quarter map at home. The Quarter War is now officially over. I am now awaiting the next coin, Arkansas, which should come out next month.
2003/09/08
Isabel and the GFS
It's late summer and early autumn, so it's hurricane time. And sure enough, there are two hurricanes and two tropical depressions out there. Hurricanes are rather unpredictable creatures. For example, take Fabian. It looked like it was going to curve to the north and go out to sea, and so not harm any land areas. Well that it did, but it unexpectedly gave Bermuda a direct hit, and now they are cleaning up the mess there. It's gone but there is another storm out there, Isabel. It is following the path of Fabian. So where is Izzy going?
It is way to the east of the Leeward islands, and so it will take several days even to get there. After then, will it go out to sea or will it hit the US or somewhere else? This is way off in the future and so a weather prediction or model system is needed that will go out as far as possible. NOAA's Global Forecasting System or GFS goes out to a whopping 16 days! That is time enough to find out what happens to Isabel. For a while GFS was saying that it was going to go out to sea. Then Gary Gray pointed out that the 2003 September 7 12Z (Z means Greenwich Mean time or Universal time) run of GFS shows Isabel slamming into New England, creating a new version of the Great New England Hurricane of 1938. This would happen about two weeks from now, around September 21. Gary Gray points out that he has no confidence in this forecast, because it is so way out in the future.
Indeed, future runs show other things. The 2003 September 7 18Z run shows Isabel once again going out to sea, and the 2003 September 8 0Z run shows it slamming into Nova Scotia and Newfoundland. The 6Z run today says it will go to Ft Lauderdale, Florida, then head into Tennessee, join up with an ordinary low, and create the biggest floods this country has seen since Agnes in 1972. The 12Z run shows it hitting midway between Massachusetts and Maine, and the latest run, 18Z, is even more horrendous. First it heads into the Delmarva Peninsula, right into Baltimore's inner harbor. Then it goes up the Delaware River, into Pennsylvania and New Jersey, giving New York City a big whack. Then it curves into New England. If this happens it will be the most destructive hurricane in history, because this area is heavily populated with a lot of development.
The point here is that the forecast is all over the place. It could hit Florida, it could hit Virginia, it could hit New England or Nova Scotia, it could go out to sea or even hit Bermuda again. That is why we don't see this on the TV weather report. The TV weatherman's job is to predict, and watching a model go from here to there as newer editions go out is not predicting, which requires saying definitely where it will go.
But nevertheless it is interesting to watch the forecasts. In a sense there is a virtual storm out there, hanging in the future, hitting all these places as time goes by, and as the storm gets closer, its variations will damp out and become more consistent. Then we will know where the real storm will hit. Further, you can get some idea of where it will hit from these forecasts. The runs seem to center around the New England and New York City area, so I think this area is the most likely to get hit. Further, it is not coming in at a usual angle in any of these runs, except those that take it to sea. It looks like it goes out to sea, then it bends to the west or northwest. This makes striking Delmarva, New Jersey, or New York more likely than usual. This is therefore a storm to watch. By the end of the week, we may know just who Isabel is going to visit.
It's late summer and early autumn, so it's hurricane time. And sure enough, there are two hurricanes and two tropical depressions out there. Hurricanes are rather unpredictable creatures. For example, take Fabian. It looked like it was going to curve to the north and go out to sea, and so not harm any land areas. Well that it did, but it unexpectedly gave Bermuda a direct hit, and now they are cleaning up the mess there. It's gone but there is another storm out there, Isabel. It is following the path of Fabian. So where is Izzy going?
It is way to the east of the Leeward islands, and so it will take several days even to get there. After then, will it go out to sea or will it hit the US or somewhere else? This is way off in the future and so a weather prediction or model system is needed that will go out as far as possible. NOAA's Global Forecasting System or GFS goes out to a whopping 16 days! That is time enough to find out what happens to Isabel. For a while GFS was saying that it was going to go out to sea. Then Gary Gray pointed out that the 2003 September 7 12Z (Z means Greenwich Mean time or Universal time) run of GFS shows Isabel slamming into New England, creating a new version of the Great New England Hurricane of 1938. This would happen about two weeks from now, around September 21. Gary Gray points out that he has no confidence in this forecast, because it is so way out in the future.
Indeed, future runs show other things. The 2003 September 7 18Z run shows Isabel once again going out to sea, and the 2003 September 8 0Z run shows it slamming into Nova Scotia and Newfoundland. The 6Z run today says it will go to Ft Lauderdale, Florida, then head into Tennessee, join up with an ordinary low, and create the biggest floods this country has seen since Agnes in 1972. The 12Z run shows it hitting midway between Massachusetts and Maine, and the latest run, 18Z, is even more horrendous. First it heads into the Delmarva Peninsula, right into Baltimore's inner harbor. Then it goes up the Delaware River, into Pennsylvania and New Jersey, giving New York City a big whack. Then it curves into New England. If this happens it will be the most destructive hurricane in history, because this area is heavily populated with a lot of development.
The point here is that the forecast is all over the place. It could hit Florida, it could hit Virginia, it could hit New England or Nova Scotia, it could go out to sea or even hit Bermuda again. That is why we don't see this on the TV weather report. The TV weatherman's job is to predict, and watching a model go from here to there as newer editions go out is not predicting, which requires saying definitely where it will go.
But nevertheless it is interesting to watch the forecasts. In a sense there is a virtual storm out there, hanging in the future, hitting all these places as time goes by, and as the storm gets closer, its variations will damp out and become more consistent. Then we will know where the real storm will hit. Further, you can get some idea of where it will hit from these forecasts. The runs seem to center around the New England and New York City area, so I think this area is the most likely to get hit. Further, it is not coming in at a usual angle in any of these runs, except those that take it to sea. It looks like it goes out to sea, then it bends to the west or northwest. This makes striking Delmarva, New Jersey, or New York more likely than usual. This is therefore a storm to watch. By the end of the week, we may know just who Isabel is going to visit.
2003/09/07
Dean for President
I think I know which candidate I want for President next year. Former Vermont Governor Howard Dean.
I certainly don't want Bush for another four years. He has been bad news in a lot of ways: refusing to join with other nations in the Tokyo Environmental Accords; attacking Iraq against allies' advice and causing a quagmire; getting the 1984ian Patriot Act passed, and so forth. So I have been looking at the Democrats. Do I want someone who I think could get elected, like Sen. Tom Edwards of North Carolina or Sen. Kerry of Massachusetts, or do I want someone whose views resemble mine? Do I want to favor a front runner or a back runner? The Lichtman keys give me a clue to this.
According to Allan Lichtman, there are 13 keys, consisting of statements that are either true or false for a candidate from the incumbent party. The incumbent party candidate wins if and only if at most five of the keys are false. Right now Bush has two of the keys (that is, the keys are true) and has lost probably four of them (that is, the keys are false). Getting two more keys to fall will be hard. But one thing about them stands out: none of them pertain to the opposing candidate except for Key 13, which says that this candidate is not charismatic or a national hero. Neither Bush nor any of the Democratic hopefuls except possibly Hillary Clinton are charismatic.
This implies that it does not make any difference who the Democrats select as far as Bush's reelection chances are concerned. If Bush has the keys, he will be reelected no matter what. If Bush does not have the keys, he will be defeated no matter whom the Democrats select. Therefore, I want the Democrats to select someone who reflects my views, not someone who will compromise some of these views in order to get elected, for it does not make any difference as far as getting elected is concerned.
Hence I want Howard Dean for President, since he represents my views better than any of the other candidates do.
I think I know which candidate I want for President next year. Former Vermont Governor Howard Dean.
I certainly don't want Bush for another four years. He has been bad news in a lot of ways: refusing to join with other nations in the Tokyo Environmental Accords; attacking Iraq against allies' advice and causing a quagmire; getting the 1984ian Patriot Act passed, and so forth. So I have been looking at the Democrats. Do I want someone who I think could get elected, like Sen. Tom Edwards of North Carolina or Sen. Kerry of Massachusetts, or do I want someone whose views resemble mine? Do I want to favor a front runner or a back runner? The Lichtman keys give me a clue to this.
According to Allan Lichtman, there are 13 keys, consisting of statements that are either true or false for a candidate from the incumbent party. The incumbent party candidate wins if and only if at most five of the keys are false. Right now Bush has two of the keys (that is, the keys are true) and has lost probably four of them (that is, the keys are false). Getting two more keys to fall will be hard. But one thing about them stands out: none of them pertain to the opposing candidate except for Key 13, which says that this candidate is not charismatic or a national hero. Neither Bush nor any of the Democratic hopefuls except possibly Hillary Clinton are charismatic.
This implies that it does not make any difference who the Democrats select as far as Bush's reelection chances are concerned. If Bush has the keys, he will be reelected no matter what. If Bush does not have the keys, he will be defeated no matter whom the Democrats select. Therefore, I want the Democrats to select someone who reflects my views, not someone who will compromise some of these views in order to get elected, for it does not make any difference as far as getting elected is concerned.
Hence I want Howard Dean for President, since he represents my views better than any of the other candidates do.
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