Ray McAllister of the Richmond Times-Dispatch came up with an interesting point about hurricane names. They're too nice for things that destroy buildings and lives with wind and rain. He says we don't need a Hurricane Frances, because Frances sounds like someone you would have tea with. This Frances, he says, is coming for no tea. Perhaps people would listen if it were Hurricane Fidel instead. Ray also suggests Hitler, Genghis Khan, and Godzilla for hurricane names. His article is at the Times-Dispatch web site. This link may become dead in a couple of weeks. Another blogger, A perfectly Cromulent Blog, also suggests using names like Hitler and Attila.
I note that I have been using names like this for decades to describe storms, but not hurricanes. I use them for snowstorms instead, for the very reasons that Cromulent and McAllister mention - nasty things do not deserve nice names. Here is a list of names I am using. The next snowstorm to strike the Richmond, Virginia area will be Snowstorm Warlock. Here are the previous ones:
Ares
Bluto (Massive winter storm of 1993 March 12)
Crimester
Devil
Evil
Fiend (Ice Storm of 1994)
Gargoyle (Blizzard of 1996)
Hades
Infidel
Jabba
King Cobra (Major Ice Storm of 1998)
Loki
Malo (Blizzard of 2000)
Nix
Ogre
Pouncer
Quagmire
Rat
Snake
Tarantula
Ungodly
Vixen (last 2-inch snowstorm we had)
And here is what's coming up this year:
Warlock (for the first snowstorm of 2004-2005)
X-Outer
Yuk
Zorra
These names should satisfy the criteria of McAllister and Cromulent! I am just hoping that Warlock does not hit us too badly.
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2004/09/04
Ivan is in the act
There are now two storms out there: Frances and Ivan. Frances has nearly, but not quite, stalled just before hitting Fort Pierce, Florida. It now is forecast to go out into the Gulf of Mexico, reenter at Apalachicola, and come up Alabama and Tennessee, going by Memphis, Nashville, and Indianapolis. It has stalled so much now that some of the models, notably GFS, UKMET, and CMC have gone to the east, threatening to hit the western Virginia mountains. If that happens, Richmond will get massive river flooding, and it is already recovering from flooding from 11 inches of rain from a mere tropical storm Gaston. So we will have to wait for that.
But Frances has so occupied the attention of broadcasters and weather people that not a one is mentioning Ivan at all. Gary Gray does not mention it at all, and some of the models are suggesting this could be another Frances. So I will give my Ivan analysis after looking at the models.
Several models are calling for Ivan to go to the north, and follow the same track as Frances, including UKMET, NOGAPS, and GFDL. However, they take it only to the Bahamas before quitting. The only model that goes further is GFS, which goes to 16 days, but this model poofs the storm. After it gets to Puerto Rico, it just simply dissolves into a mess of other clouds. So what do you do when the models strongly suggest one thing, but the only model that will tell the full story is telling something different? I looked at the high pressure systems. There is a big one to the north. That's the one giving us the good weather this week. It is supposed to move off the coast, allowing Frances to take a more northeasterly track. Another high will come in from the US Midwest. In between will be a trough established by Francis and a couple of other non-tropical storms, and I am afraid that Ivan will go up this trough. In other words, it will come up to Florida, then veer off to the north and east and possibly hit the Carolinas and Virginia. It may not be as strong as Francis, but I certainly don't want that to happen. I will have to wait until the time gets to where the short models will pick up landfall, or GFS decided to realize the storm and tell us how it is going to go.
But Frances has so occupied the attention of broadcasters and weather people that not a one is mentioning Ivan at all. Gary Gray does not mention it at all, and some of the models are suggesting this could be another Frances. So I will give my Ivan analysis after looking at the models.
Several models are calling for Ivan to go to the north, and follow the same track as Frances, including UKMET, NOGAPS, and GFDL. However, they take it only to the Bahamas before quitting. The only model that goes further is GFS, which goes to 16 days, but this model poofs the storm. After it gets to Puerto Rico, it just simply dissolves into a mess of other clouds. So what do you do when the models strongly suggest one thing, but the only model that will tell the full story is telling something different? I looked at the high pressure systems. There is a big one to the north. That's the one giving us the good weather this week. It is supposed to move off the coast, allowing Frances to take a more northeasterly track. Another high will come in from the US Midwest. In between will be a trough established by Francis and a couple of other non-tropical storms, and I am afraid that Ivan will go up this trough. In other words, it will come up to Florida, then veer off to the north and east and possibly hit the Carolinas and Virginia. It may not be as strong as Francis, but I certainly don't want that to happen. I will have to wait until the time gets to where the short models will pick up landfall, or GFS decided to realize the storm and tell us how it is going to go.
2004/09/01
Hurricane Frances Update
Hurricane Frances has turned into a real cliffhanger, like a 13-inning 7th game of a World Series or the 2000 Presidential election. It has even been a little weird. The Global Forecasting System (GFS) showed the storm coming into Brunswick, Georgia, or thereabouts, continuing to the northwest, and then splitting up into two storms! One of them heads for Kentucky and Ohio, west of the Appalachians, and the other goes east of the Appalachians, into western Virginia. In Richmond, it gives us a glancing blow, much like Hugo did. The storm reunites somewhere in the Great Lakes.
The hurricane has stayed on a westerly course, with the longitude increasing about 3-4 times as fast as the latitude, and south of the course predicted by the National Hurricane Center. That course was going to go to Jacksonville, FL, but then it moved to Daytona Beach, and then to the Kennedy Space Center, and now back more towards Daytona again. However, the GFS and GFDL models have indicated all day long a hit at Hardeeville, SC, and then a track to the north northeast towards Richmond. Of course I don't want this to happen. I am not too concerned about the wind, since the NHC reports indicate that although the storm is producing140 mph winds, they quickly go down to about 80 mph at 60 miles inland and 12 hours all the way down to 30 mph. But it would throw about 2-10 inches of rain here in Richmond, and we already had 4-14 inches from upstart Gaston, which was "only" a measly little tropical storm.
Now tonight the GFS and GFDL has been joined by all of the BAM models, including BAM-H and BAM-G, so now the computer models graph on Weather Underground looks like a split, with some models heading to the Kennedy Space Center and some heading towards Savannah, GA and Hardeeville, SC. This is making this storm a cliffhanger. Which way is it going to go? Will it follow GFS, or will it follow UKMET, which up to now has been pretty steady? I of course hope that the UKMET and NOGAPS are right. I imagine that the people in Florida hope that GFS is right. We will have to watch the high and the storm really closely the next few days. The people from Fort Pierce to Jacksonville, FL need to keep a close eye on the storm, and so do the people near the Carolina and Virginia coasts. The next two days will tell the story.
The hurricane has stayed on a westerly course, with the longitude increasing about 3-4 times as fast as the latitude, and south of the course predicted by the National Hurricane Center. That course was going to go to Jacksonville, FL, but then it moved to Daytona Beach, and then to the Kennedy Space Center, and now back more towards Daytona again. However, the GFS and GFDL models have indicated all day long a hit at Hardeeville, SC, and then a track to the north northeast towards Richmond. Of course I don't want this to happen. I am not too concerned about the wind, since the NHC reports indicate that although the storm is producing140 mph winds, they quickly go down to about 80 mph at 60 miles inland and 12 hours all the way down to 30 mph. But it would throw about 2-10 inches of rain here in Richmond, and we already had 4-14 inches from upstart Gaston, which was "only" a measly little tropical storm.
Now tonight the GFS and GFDL has been joined by all of the BAM models, including BAM-H and BAM-G, so now the computer models graph on Weather Underground looks like a split, with some models heading to the Kennedy Space Center and some heading towards Savannah, GA and Hardeeville, SC. This is making this storm a cliffhanger. Which way is it going to go? Will it follow GFS, or will it follow UKMET, which up to now has been pretty steady? I of course hope that the UKMET and NOGAPS are right. I imagine that the people in Florida hope that GFS is right. We will have to watch the high and the storm really closely the next few days. The people from Fort Pierce to Jacksonville, FL need to keep a close eye on the storm, and so do the people near the Carolina and Virginia coasts. The next two days will tell the story.
2004/08/30
Monkey Tale
Today when I went running, I found on the locker room door before I went running at lunchtime a posted notice. The notice told a tale of five monkeys. It goes something like this, although you can get a narrative by searching, say for "monkeys banana attack".
Put five monkeys in a cage. Put a stairs there and a banana so that a monkey, standing on stairs, can reach and get the banana. Then watch. Sooner or later, a monkey will go up to get the banana. At that time, spray the other four monkeys hard with a hose. After that, continue to look (replace the banana). Sooner or later, a monkey will go after the banana. When that happens, spray the other four monkeys. Do this several times. At about this time, when a monkey goes up to get the banana, the other four monkeys will attack it, because this brings water on them. This happens, even after you stop dousing them.
Call the monkeys 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5. Now take Monkey 5 out and replace him with Monkey 6. Monkey 6 does not know of the situation. He goes for the banana. At that time the other monkeys attack him. After a couple of times of this, he does not climb the stairs any more. Take Monkey 4 out and replace her with Monkey 7. For the same reason, Monkey 7 will try to get the banana and will be attacked by the other monkeys (including Monkey 6!). In turn like this take Monkey 3 out and replace him with Monkey 8, and watch him get attacked upon trying to get the banana. Do the same with Monkeys 2 and 1, replacing them with Monkeys 9 and 10.
Now look. There are now five completely different monkeys in there, numbers 6-10. Monkeys 1-5, who got doused, are not there anymore. None of 6 through 10 ever got doused. But if any of those goes for the banana, he gets attacked! What is this phenomenon? It is POLICY, that is what it is.
This had me really thinking, especially since my workplace went through a 100% turnover a year ago (except for me). Apparently there are two levels of monkey thinking. Level 0 is the monkey who is new to the situation. Everything is fresh, yet to be discovered, including that tasty banana hanging from the ceiling. So he goes for the banana. Not so Level 1. This is a monkey that has learned that going up to the banana gets dousing from others, and gets one attacked by the others. So the monkey does not go up stairs. Now these monkeys, having nothing to do with the original situation, are still stuck with the original Level 1 situation.
To get above this, a monkey in the cage needs to go to Level 2. Why should I be attacked for doing what comes naturally, getting a banana to eat? There is no point to it. There was a point once, but it now has been lost. So the Level 2 monkey would want to get the banana, and would try to get it without getting attacked. Maybe a quick snipe. Maybe even better yet, find out what causes the attacks in the first place. There's a hose in the wall? Maybe take that banana and plug the hole with it?
This reminds me of the world situation. Soon we are going to run out of oil. But no one mentions it. Why not? Because a politician would lose votes, and a hypermediac would lose his job with the network. The hypermedia and the politicians are the other monkeys who would attack you. So what do you do? You need to get something going to get us ready for the oil shortage, but you need to do something about all the Level 1 monkeys out there that would attack you. So you need to attend to world defense, as well as move to a more sustainable economy. This would be taking the world view, according to Spiral Dynamic's Yellow Meme. It would be a courageous action, but it needs to be taken soon. If we remain trapped like monkeys in a cage, that may mean the end.
Put five monkeys in a cage. Put a stairs there and a banana so that a monkey, standing on stairs, can reach and get the banana. Then watch. Sooner or later, a monkey will go up to get the banana. At that time, spray the other four monkeys hard with a hose. After that, continue to look (replace the banana). Sooner or later, a monkey will go after the banana. When that happens, spray the other four monkeys. Do this several times. At about this time, when a monkey goes up to get the banana, the other four monkeys will attack it, because this brings water on them. This happens, even after you stop dousing them.
Call the monkeys 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5. Now take Monkey 5 out and replace him with Monkey 6. Monkey 6 does not know of the situation. He goes for the banana. At that time the other monkeys attack him. After a couple of times of this, he does not climb the stairs any more. Take Monkey 4 out and replace her with Monkey 7. For the same reason, Monkey 7 will try to get the banana and will be attacked by the other monkeys (including Monkey 6!). In turn like this take Monkey 3 out and replace him with Monkey 8, and watch him get attacked upon trying to get the banana. Do the same with Monkeys 2 and 1, replacing them with Monkeys 9 and 10.
Now look. There are now five completely different monkeys in there, numbers 6-10. Monkeys 1-5, who got doused, are not there anymore. None of 6 through 10 ever got doused. But if any of those goes for the banana, he gets attacked! What is this phenomenon? It is POLICY, that is what it is.
This had me really thinking, especially since my workplace went through a 100% turnover a year ago (except for me). Apparently there are two levels of monkey thinking. Level 0 is the monkey who is new to the situation. Everything is fresh, yet to be discovered, including that tasty banana hanging from the ceiling. So he goes for the banana. Not so Level 1. This is a monkey that has learned that going up to the banana gets dousing from others, and gets one attacked by the others. So the monkey does not go up stairs. Now these monkeys, having nothing to do with the original situation, are still stuck with the original Level 1 situation.
To get above this, a monkey in the cage needs to go to Level 2. Why should I be attacked for doing what comes naturally, getting a banana to eat? There is no point to it. There was a point once, but it now has been lost. So the Level 2 monkey would want to get the banana, and would try to get it without getting attacked. Maybe a quick snipe. Maybe even better yet, find out what causes the attacks in the first place. There's a hose in the wall? Maybe take that banana and plug the hole with it?
This reminds me of the world situation. Soon we are going to run out of oil. But no one mentions it. Why not? Because a politician would lose votes, and a hypermediac would lose his job with the network. The hypermedia and the politicians are the other monkeys who would attack you. So what do you do? You need to get something going to get us ready for the oil shortage, but you need to do something about all the Level 1 monkeys out there that would attack you. So you need to attend to world defense, as well as move to a more sustainable economy. This would be taking the world view, according to Spiral Dynamic's Yellow Meme. It would be a courageous action, but it needs to be taken soon. If we remain trapped like monkeys in a cage, that may mean the end.
Gaston Surprise
Last night I was concerned about Frances, because it could come up our way in Richmond, Virginia. I am still concerned about that, but recent paths show it going away towards places farther west, so I am still monitoring that storm.
But tonight we had a surprise from what's left of Tropical Storm Gaston. I am still going to call it Tropical Storm Gaston, and in fact, it may regenerate into a hurricane when it gets out into the Atlantic. This is because the storm held together as a whole. We can't call it "remnants" because the storm is still a unified whole. It came up through South Carolina and North Carolina, where it caused tremendous flooding in Raleigh. Then it came here to Richmond where it literally dumped everything it had, and even produced some gale-force winds.
I got home OK but I was wondering about my wife's evening job. I examined all the reports coming in. I-95 was closed between Belvidere and Boulevard. Semmes and Commerce Avenue were closed. There were huge traffic jams on I-95 north south of the James River. There were floods on Brander's Bridge Road, Lewis Road at Ironbridge Road, Ironbridge Road at Newby's Bridge Road, I-195 between Douglasdale and Broad, Midlothian Turnpike in several places, and on Route 5 near Osborne to our east. I concluded that there was no way she could get to work. All the roads either had traffic jams or high water. So she didn't go in.
Richmond north of the city had 10-14 inches of rain. So far here we have had 4.6 inches, so it isn't the top storm here but it comes close. But it has caused some serious situations, more so than with some storms that were Class 3 hurricanes. Shockoe Bottom is flooded with people trapped on higher floors of buildings. The water on I-95 is so deep at one point that rescuers are having to get people by dragging them up from an overpass. A whole bunch of people are mandatorily evacuated because authorities are concerned about a dam break. Fortunately the center is going off shore, but unfortunately the western half of the storm seems to be strengthening. It will probably move off the coast tonight.
Among storms we have had, it ranks with Fran and Floyd, but in terms of rainfall, it tops them all. Last year was the Windstorm Isabel. This year it is Rainstorm Gaston. So I am hoping that Frances and her companions stay away. Latest guidance now suggests a landfall in Florida, so that may be good news, especially since it then is supposed to go out to the northwest. One storm like this in a year is enough.
But tonight we had a surprise from what's left of Tropical Storm Gaston. I am still going to call it Tropical Storm Gaston, and in fact, it may regenerate into a hurricane when it gets out into the Atlantic. This is because the storm held together as a whole. We can't call it "remnants" because the storm is still a unified whole. It came up through South Carolina and North Carolina, where it caused tremendous flooding in Raleigh. Then it came here to Richmond where it literally dumped everything it had, and even produced some gale-force winds.
I got home OK but I was wondering about my wife's evening job. I examined all the reports coming in. I-95 was closed between Belvidere and Boulevard. Semmes and Commerce Avenue were closed. There were huge traffic jams on I-95 north south of the James River. There were floods on Brander's Bridge Road, Lewis Road at Ironbridge Road, Ironbridge Road at Newby's Bridge Road, I-195 between Douglasdale and Broad, Midlothian Turnpike in several places, and on Route 5 near Osborne to our east. I concluded that there was no way she could get to work. All the roads either had traffic jams or high water. So she didn't go in.
Richmond north of the city had 10-14 inches of rain. So far here we have had 4.6 inches, so it isn't the top storm here but it comes close. But it has caused some serious situations, more so than with some storms that were Class 3 hurricanes. Shockoe Bottom is flooded with people trapped on higher floors of buildings. The water on I-95 is so deep at one point that rescuers are having to get people by dragging them up from an overpass. A whole bunch of people are mandatorily evacuated because authorities are concerned about a dam break. Fortunately the center is going off shore, but unfortunately the western half of the storm seems to be strengthening. It will probably move off the coast tonight.
Among storms we have had, it ranks with Fran and Floyd, but in terms of rainfall, it tops them all. Last year was the Windstorm Isabel. This year it is Rainstorm Gaston. So I am hoping that Frances and her companions stay away. Latest guidance now suggests a landfall in Florida, so that may be good news, especially since it then is supposed to go out to the northwest. One storm like this in a year is enough.
2004/08/29
Hurricane Party
It's hurricane time again, and sure enough the Great Den of Hurricanes, namely the Atlantic Ocean, is brewing trouble. Now it is Hurricane Francis, following a course somewhat similar to Isabel last year and to Floyd in 1999. Further, there are two more. Gaston just landed in South Carolina, and is supposed to make this area of Virginia diluvian, with several inches of rain. Hermine is out in the Atlantic but the Global Forecasting System (GFS) does not show it much; I think it will simply disappear.
Francis is the one I am concerned about. I have been following this storm for about a week or maybe even longer, before it even existed! The GFS makes it possible to follow a storm up to 16 days in advance. Some of the previous runs had it turning around in Florida and heading up here to Virginia, and that had me concerned. This past weekend, they started to head Francis into the GOM (i.e., Gulf of Mexico) after striking southern Florida, which sure does not need such a hurricane. It then would hit the Gulf Coast somewhere and head to the north northwest, perhaps affecting Indiana or Michigan.
As of late, the GFS started to move it to the east. The 12Z run today was really scary. It showed it going into Savannah, GA, and then heading into western Virginia after clobbering Charlotte like Hugo did in 1989. Not only that, but then after that a long train of hurricanes was following in its path, ready to strike the Carolinas in turn: Ivan, Jeanne, and Karl. I got the 18Z run today and it shows a more southerly path, hitting Fort Pierce, Florida, and then into Georgia and Kentucky. We would just get a little rain. And the traffic jam of hurricanes in the Atlantic is gone: just one little storm (Ivan) that turns away long before hitting the East Coast.
The runs are consistent enough to show clearly that someone is going to get 'caned. It is probably in Florida, but I hope we don't have another Isabel. So I am going to keep a watch of this storm, and also Ivan.
Francis is the one I am concerned about. I have been following this storm for about a week or maybe even longer, before it even existed! The GFS makes it possible to follow a storm up to 16 days in advance. Some of the previous runs had it turning around in Florida and heading up here to Virginia, and that had me concerned. This past weekend, they started to head Francis into the GOM (i.e., Gulf of Mexico) after striking southern Florida, which sure does not need such a hurricane. It then would hit the Gulf Coast somewhere and head to the north northwest, perhaps affecting Indiana or Michigan.
As of late, the GFS started to move it to the east. The 12Z run today was really scary. It showed it going into Savannah, GA, and then heading into western Virginia after clobbering Charlotte like Hugo did in 1989. Not only that, but then after that a long train of hurricanes was following in its path, ready to strike the Carolinas in turn: Ivan, Jeanne, and Karl. I got the 18Z run today and it shows a more southerly path, hitting Fort Pierce, Florida, and then into Georgia and Kentucky. We would just get a little rain. And the traffic jam of hurricanes in the Atlantic is gone: just one little storm (Ivan) that turns away long before hitting the East Coast.
The runs are consistent enough to show clearly that someone is going to get 'caned. It is probably in Florida, but I hope we don't have another Isabel. So I am going to keep a watch of this storm, and also Ivan.
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