Hurricane Damage: Our Fault?
Last week Hurricane Isabel breezed in to North Carolina, Virginia, and other states and caused massive power outages that may take two weeks to fix in some cases. At least this is not like Planeattack where we can say that some group of people caused it. It was a perfectly natural event; a windstorm with 40-60 mph winds that caused a lot of damage to this area. Or was it completely natural?
60 mph winds should not cause that much damage! Just how did Isabel wreak such destruction with only gale-force winds? Firstly, note that just about all damage due to Isabel was due to trees falling down on things: power lines, homes, cars, trailers. Almost none of it in central Virginia was due to direct effects of the winds. Only on the Outer Banks and surrounding areas did that occur. Second, take a look around the neighborhood. Go through the streets and go into the woods. What do you find? Trees that are all by themselves are the ones that fell. Trees that are with other trees are less likely to have fallen. If you go into the forest you find that almost all trees are intact. If there is a wide path through the woods, the path is probably impassable with fallen trees, but the forest is just as before. It is just like it was before the hurricane. It is easy to see why that is the case. Trees around other trees are not subject to the same winds as trees all by themselves, because they protect each other Trees on the edge are more likely to get knocked down by the winds, and isolated trees are even more likely.
Which brings up a human cause for the damage: the developers. The developers, it seems, don't care anything about who lives in the houses afterwards. They just want to throw up houses quick, chop down trees quick, collect their bucks, and leave isolated trees to fall during hurricanes. When building houses, developers need to either leave no trees in the yard or a continuous area of them. If they leave isolated trees, they leave bombs which later on damage the homes they build. So it is not all nature's fault. The developers had a hand in it, too.
A Journey through Blogrealm
2003/09/21
Isabel and Dark Skies
Isabel caused a lot of power outages, damage to homes caused by trees, and other destruction. But when it left, it left behind a jewel. I went outside yesterday (2003 September 19) to see the stars, and I saw the darkest, most brilliantly star-studded sky that I have ever seen from my house. About 80-90% of the surrounding area did not have power. Therefore, the sky glow from light pollution was a lot less. I could easily see all the stars of the Little Dipper, and the Milky Way was visible from horizon to horizon. I went out with my telescope to try to see Mars, but I had trouble aligning my telescope, and I think part of it was that it was running on batteries. I did see it eventually and saw a dark stripe across the middle of the Red Planet. It was a real treat seeing a sky so dark from my house and I realize that this is something that occurs only about once every 50 years, when a hurricane as powerful as Isabel comes through here. I know that a teen-age woman named Jennifer Barlow has been trying to get people to turn off their outside lights in order to provide for a dark sky; in particular, declaring a Lights Out day. That was not too successful. It seems that Jennifer couldn't get people to turn off their lights. But Isabel could, and did. What is this society we belong to coming to anyway, when we need a hurricane to be able to see the night sky? I say make every day a Hurricane Isabel day. If you could not turn on an outside light during Isabel, then don't turn it on at all. I know some lights are needed for safety, but these may be far fewer than most people think. If everyone would do this, dark skies and knowledge about astronomy, especially among young people, would return.
Isabel caused a lot of power outages, damage to homes caused by trees, and other destruction. But when it left, it left behind a jewel. I went outside yesterday (2003 September 19) to see the stars, and I saw the darkest, most brilliantly star-studded sky that I have ever seen from my house. About 80-90% of the surrounding area did not have power. Therefore, the sky glow from light pollution was a lot less. I could easily see all the stars of the Little Dipper, and the Milky Way was visible from horizon to horizon. I went out with my telescope to try to see Mars, but I had trouble aligning my telescope, and I think part of it was that it was running on batteries. I did see it eventually and saw a dark stripe across the middle of the Red Planet. It was a real treat seeing a sky so dark from my house and I realize that this is something that occurs only about once every 50 years, when a hurricane as powerful as Isabel comes through here. I know that a teen-age woman named Jennifer Barlow has been trying to get people to turn off their outside lights in order to provide for a dark sky; in particular, declaring a Lights Out day. That was not too successful. It seems that Jennifer couldn't get people to turn off their lights. But Isabel could, and did. What is this society we belong to coming to anyway, when we need a hurricane to be able to see the night sky? I say make every day a Hurricane Isabel day. If you could not turn on an outside light during Isabel, then don't turn it on at all. I know some lights are needed for safety, but these may be far fewer than most people think. If everyone would do this, dark skies and knowledge about astronomy, especially among young people, would return.
Isabel the Windy Storm
This is my last report on Isabel. It was hard to see from radar just where this storm was going. Its wobble first had it seemingly scraping the coast, then at another time, it seemed to be headed straight to Raleigh. But it followed pretty much what the models and NOAA had been saying about what the storm would do. Floyd in 1999 was a rainy and floody storm. Isabel was a windy storm - not too much rain fell.
I was afraid of the high winds that would come here. They were predicting 75 mph winds for Petersburg. They canceled my place of work for two days, so I was at home when it occurred. In the morning it was a gentle but steady breeze. It started to increase by lunchtime. It seemed like it was almost calm at ground level - our maple tree did not sway much, but the tall trees, about six stories high, swayed back and forth. In the afternoon, the wind got much fiercer, blowing twigs off the trees, but then it eased up about 3 pm to 5 pm. They started picking up after 5 pm, and we lost power at 1729 (5:29 pm). At that time the center of the storm was just crossing into Virginia. I did not get any more visual pictures after that; the TV station was broadcasting over radio, and I could hear what the weatherman was saying. At 1852 a roar occurred outside. When it arrived, the trees in our back yard started bowing way to the left at a 45 degree angle or more, and one tree bowed over straight. It was falling down! It landed harmlessly along our back yard boundary, although it missed our telephone box by about two feet. The storm continued from 7 pm to 10 pm, howling and producing more wild bendings of the tree. I heard that the TV station recorded a gust of 63 mph - on the boundary between whole gale force and storm force - now I know what a whole gale is like. Sure enough, it uproots trees. After 10 pm the winds died down considerably, and the rain ebbed to a mere drizzle. Hardly any rain, but the wind was still fast and howling. I went to bed and heard them and it seemed soothing in a way, like there was something going on out there and I was safe in bed - it was the same sort of feeling as when I get when I hear a train pass about two miles way.
The next morning, I went out at 7 pm. Guess what? There was a party going on in the street. The weather was beautiful. There was lots of clear sky and some altostratus clouds, and it was nice and cool. We went out in the neighborhood to see the damage. I found out that a tree had fallen on another tree near our house. On one corner of our house, about 10 feet away, there are three trees and I was afraid that a storm some day would blow them on our house and cause serious damage. So I wanted to get rid of them, but an association board member and a tree surgeon told me that they were sturdy trees - the house would go before them. So I never got around to having them chopped down. Good thing I didn't. One of those trees protected my house from being hit from the tree behind it in my neighbor's yard. If I had had those trees removed, the tree from the neighbor's yard would have damaged my house. I will probably leave them there, then; they are guardian angel trees. The neighborhood had lots of trees down, including an attractive willow. Two houses were damaged by a tree hitting a corner of their house.
Phone service went out with the power, and I figured I would have to wait a day or two for power. But surprise. It came on at 1519 yesterday (2003 September 19), and so did the phone service, but not cable TV. But still I seem to be in a favored class. 325,000 out of 425,000 customers of Virginia Power currently don’t have power. So cable TV (and high-speed Internet) seem to be small potatoes. It does indeed affect me still. The gasoline stations are closed because of lack of power, and those that are open have huge lines at them. This suggests what will happen when the Big Petroleum Shortage Rollover occurs, probably near the end of the decade, from what some geologists say. The banks are closed, and I am afraid to use ATMs for fear they will swallow my card. It was to be an active weekend, but Isabel wiped out four, or possibly six, events that I was maybe going to.
It was the worst storm ever to have hit the area that I lived in. It was worse than Fran and Floyd. Fran gave us a 2.5 hour power outage, and we never lost power during Floyd. The only storm that comes close was the Great Christmas Eve Ice Storm of 1998, which caused a 21-hour power outage at my house. The unusual thing about it is that 16 days before, on 2003 September 8 (it looked like it would hit on the 24th then) I knew that it could hit the East Coast. At that time I saw a virtual storm coming. Well, the virtual storm headed straight towards the real storm and came together right over my head.
Look at my weather page. I had not changed this in a while, but I am going to be converting this to a page on Isabel, including all the blogs that I have made to Blogtrek on this hurricane.
This is my last report on Isabel. It was hard to see from radar just where this storm was going. Its wobble first had it seemingly scraping the coast, then at another time, it seemed to be headed straight to Raleigh. But it followed pretty much what the models and NOAA had been saying about what the storm would do. Floyd in 1999 was a rainy and floody storm. Isabel was a windy storm - not too much rain fell.
I was afraid of the high winds that would come here. They were predicting 75 mph winds for Petersburg. They canceled my place of work for two days, so I was at home when it occurred. In the morning it was a gentle but steady breeze. It started to increase by lunchtime. It seemed like it was almost calm at ground level - our maple tree did not sway much, but the tall trees, about six stories high, swayed back and forth. In the afternoon, the wind got much fiercer, blowing twigs off the trees, but then it eased up about 3 pm to 5 pm. They started picking up after 5 pm, and we lost power at 1729 (5:29 pm). At that time the center of the storm was just crossing into Virginia. I did not get any more visual pictures after that; the TV station was broadcasting over radio, and I could hear what the weatherman was saying. At 1852 a roar occurred outside. When it arrived, the trees in our back yard started bowing way to the left at a 45 degree angle or more, and one tree bowed over straight. It was falling down! It landed harmlessly along our back yard boundary, although it missed our telephone box by about two feet. The storm continued from 7 pm to 10 pm, howling and producing more wild bendings of the tree. I heard that the TV station recorded a gust of 63 mph - on the boundary between whole gale force and storm force - now I know what a whole gale is like. Sure enough, it uproots trees. After 10 pm the winds died down considerably, and the rain ebbed to a mere drizzle. Hardly any rain, but the wind was still fast and howling. I went to bed and heard them and it seemed soothing in a way, like there was something going on out there and I was safe in bed - it was the same sort of feeling as when I get when I hear a train pass about two miles way.
The next morning, I went out at 7 pm. Guess what? There was a party going on in the street. The weather was beautiful. There was lots of clear sky and some altostratus clouds, and it was nice and cool. We went out in the neighborhood to see the damage. I found out that a tree had fallen on another tree near our house. On one corner of our house, about 10 feet away, there are three trees and I was afraid that a storm some day would blow them on our house and cause serious damage. So I wanted to get rid of them, but an association board member and a tree surgeon told me that they were sturdy trees - the house would go before them. So I never got around to having them chopped down. Good thing I didn't. One of those trees protected my house from being hit from the tree behind it in my neighbor's yard. If I had had those trees removed, the tree from the neighbor's yard would have damaged my house. I will probably leave them there, then; they are guardian angel trees. The neighborhood had lots of trees down, including an attractive willow. Two houses were damaged by a tree hitting a corner of their house.
Phone service went out with the power, and I figured I would have to wait a day or two for power. But surprise. It came on at 1519 yesterday (2003 September 19), and so did the phone service, but not cable TV. But still I seem to be in a favored class. 325,000 out of 425,000 customers of Virginia Power currently don’t have power. So cable TV (and high-speed Internet) seem to be small potatoes. It does indeed affect me still. The gasoline stations are closed because of lack of power, and those that are open have huge lines at them. This suggests what will happen when the Big Petroleum Shortage Rollover occurs, probably near the end of the decade, from what some geologists say. The banks are closed, and I am afraid to use ATMs for fear they will swallow my card. It was to be an active weekend, but Isabel wiped out four, or possibly six, events that I was maybe going to.
It was the worst storm ever to have hit the area that I lived in. It was worse than Fran and Floyd. Fran gave us a 2.5 hour power outage, and we never lost power during Floyd. The only storm that comes close was the Great Christmas Eve Ice Storm of 1998, which caused a 21-hour power outage at my house. The unusual thing about it is that 16 days before, on 2003 September 8 (it looked like it would hit on the 24th then) I knew that it could hit the East Coast. At that time I saw a virtual storm coming. Well, the virtual storm headed straight towards the real storm and came together right over my head.
Look at my weather page. I had not changed this in a while, but I am going to be converting this to a page on Isabel, including all the blogs that I have made to Blogtrek on this hurricane.
Update - Wesley Clark for President?
Earlier I had said that if retired general Wesley Clark was going to run, then he should run as an independent or as a Republican, challenging Bush. True, if he did these things, he could cause a Lichtman key to topple, perhaps leading to Bush's defeat. But then I found that Allan Lichtman himself said that Wesley Clark was possibly charismatic. I said earlier that who the Democrats pick does not make any difference, but there is one exception: if he is charismatic, he causes Key 13, challenger charisma, to fall. If he is indeed charismatic, then that topples Key 13. All that is needed to defeat Bush then would be a bad economy. Indeed, Clark seems the ideal candidate in some ways. He has military experience but is opposed to the war in Iraq. He has the same views as former President Clinton in many areas. So Clark appears to be a Clinton opposed to the war in Iraq and without the stained dress. Indeed, he could be charismatic. If he is nominated, then the Bush candidacy would depend even more on keeping the economy perking, for none of the dissatisfaction keys (third party, challenge to nomination, and social unrest) would need to fall to ensure Bush's defeat.
Earlier I had said that if retired general Wesley Clark was going to run, then he should run as an independent or as a Republican, challenging Bush. True, if he did these things, he could cause a Lichtman key to topple, perhaps leading to Bush's defeat. But then I found that Allan Lichtman himself said that Wesley Clark was possibly charismatic. I said earlier that who the Democrats pick does not make any difference, but there is one exception: if he is charismatic, he causes Key 13, challenger charisma, to fall. If he is indeed charismatic, then that topples Key 13. All that is needed to defeat Bush then would be a bad economy. Indeed, Clark seems the ideal candidate in some ways. He has military experience but is opposed to the war in Iraq. He has the same views as former President Clinton in many areas. So Clark appears to be a Clinton opposed to the war in Iraq and without the stained dress. Indeed, he could be charismatic. If he is nominated, then the Bush candidacy would depend even more on keeping the economy perking, for none of the dissatisfaction keys (third party, challenge to nomination, and social unrest) would need to fall to ensure Bush's defeat.
Isabel and nautiluses
On 2003 September 17, Hurricane Isabel changed from its normal spiral galaxy-like shape to a spiral shape reminding me of a nautilus. It was interesting how the
storm looked on radar when it was about 24 hours from landfall. The hurricane looked like a smaller copy of itself with a spiral tail coming from it. This means that the smaller copy looked like an even smaller copy of itself with a tail coming from it. A nautilus has a similar structure, and it is remarked that the ratio of the size of the nautilus to the smaller copy of itself is 1.618033989 or (sqrt(5)+1)/2, the golden ratio. However, Isabel's spiral did not fit that description. I used Paint Shop Pro to make an estimate of the sizes of the smaller copy of Isabel and its tail, and found the ratio to be somewhere between 1.29 and 1.35. This means that the tail is not in a square box, like it is for the nautilus. It is more of a rectangle, and one can build spirals with any kind of a winding ratio. I wonder if this ratio of about 1.32 is common among hurricanes or if anyone has studied it. I tried to estimate the rotation speed. I got first of all about one rotation every 12 hours and then a little while later, it was one every 6 hours. I tried to make a prediction of intensity levels based on this - it would get strong on Thursday afternoon, then weak later in the afternoon, then really strong at night in two separate bands. I was pretty much correct - I observed these things actually happening.
What caused the nautilus structure? I think that all spirals, including spiral galaxies and hurricanes, have this type of structure, although it may look like a disk. Most hurricanes and unbarred spiral galaxies have several spiral arms that make it look like a solid disk. Isabel caught a collection of cold, dry air in its western periphery, and this cold air got into it destroying some spiral arms. Only one was left, and this enables one to see the spiral structure easily. It looked like Isabel had several eyes at one point. In any case, it did not affect the predicted (which turned out to be actual) effects of Isabel, as one of the worst hurricanes of our lives.
On 2003 September 17, Hurricane Isabel changed from its normal spiral galaxy-like shape to a spiral shape reminding me of a nautilus. It was interesting how the
storm looked on radar when it was about 24 hours from landfall. The hurricane looked like a smaller copy of itself with a spiral tail coming from it. This means that the smaller copy looked like an even smaller copy of itself with a tail coming from it. A nautilus has a similar structure, and it is remarked that the ratio of the size of the nautilus to the smaller copy of itself is 1.618033989 or (sqrt(5)+1)/2, the golden ratio. However, Isabel's spiral did not fit that description. I used Paint Shop Pro to make an estimate of the sizes of the smaller copy of Isabel and its tail, and found the ratio to be somewhere between 1.29 and 1.35. This means that the tail is not in a square box, like it is for the nautilus. It is more of a rectangle, and one can build spirals with any kind of a winding ratio. I wonder if this ratio of about 1.32 is common among hurricanes or if anyone has studied it. I tried to estimate the rotation speed. I got first of all about one rotation every 12 hours and then a little while later, it was one every 6 hours. I tried to make a prediction of intensity levels based on this - it would get strong on Thursday afternoon, then weak later in the afternoon, then really strong at night in two separate bands. I was pretty much correct - I observed these things actually happening.
What caused the nautilus structure? I think that all spirals, including spiral galaxies and hurricanes, have this type of structure, although it may look like a disk. Most hurricanes and unbarred spiral galaxies have several spiral arms that make it look like a solid disk. Isabel caught a collection of cold, dry air in its western periphery, and this cold air got into it destroying some spiral arms. Only one was left, and this enables one to see the spiral structure easily. It looked like Isabel had several eyes at one point. In any case, it did not affect the predicted (which turned out to be actual) effects of Isabel, as one of the worst hurricanes of our lives.
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