Blogtrek

Election Night

It seems the Republicans have the advantage tonight. That could have been predicted in advance, in my opinion. If the election had been held in July, Democrats would have swarmed into power in both houses. The reason why the Republicans have the advantage is that the economy seems to be doing better. The stock market is consistently going up; the days of the ebearient plummets of July and August are gone. The economy is the dominant determiner of elections by far. How else can you explain a popular victorious war president with a 90% approval rating losing to someone who had extramarital affairs, especially after the Gary Hart affair of 1988? The economy was in recession in 1992, and that cost George H. W. Bush the election. Good economies explain the victories of Reagan in 1984, Bush in 1988, and Clinton in 1996, and bad economies explain the defeats of Ford in 1976 and Carter in 1980. So who's going to win in 2004? I predict a booming economy in 2004, so I think Bush will be reelected. However, there may be an electricity shortage then due to lack of power plants, and if that occurs, a Democrat will be elected President. Elections ultimately reduce to bread and butter.