Blogtrek

Bush's chances for re-election

I know I covered this subject recently, but Bush's officially throwing his hat in the ring today brings this subject up. So how can Bush's reelection be stopped? One source says the Democrats' best chance is health costs. If so, then this is something new in Presidential politics, for it does not appear among the 13 Lichtman keys. Others say that his anti-terror stands are popular. But what is really going to happen? As I said before, Bush has lost three keys: 4 (long-term economy), 10 (foreign/military failure), and 12 (incumbent charisma). He has gained 3 (incumbency), 1 (mandate), and 7 (policy). It seems to me that the most likely scenario for defeating Bush would be an economic sputtering in 2004 together with failure to achieve our goals in Iraq (set up a democratic, peaceful government) plus something else, like a charismatic Democratic candidate or a scandal hitting the Bush administration. These things need to happen else Bush wins. But see the previous item: