Blogtrek

Will the economy defeat Bush in 2004?

I saw in this morning's Richmond Times-Dispatch (2003 May 8) that Ross MacKenzie said, "Bush II probably cannot prevail in November, 2004, if the economy is further deteriorating or still stagnating - or not clearly recovering." Mr. MacKenzie is reasoning that if the economy turns or stays bad in 2004, then Bush II will be defeated in November, just like his father George H. W. Bush was defeated in 1992 because the economy was in a downturn.

I don't think that will happen. Bush II has two advantages over Bush I. Bush I did not make any innovative changes to Administration policy. Bush II has made at least two - the War on Terror and the Department of Homeland Security. Further, Democrats gained in the 1988 midterm elections, while Republicans gained in the 2002 elections. So while the economy sank the elder Bush, I believe that Bush II will still win in 2004 even with an anemic economy.

For Bush II to be defeated in 2004, other things would have to happen as well; for example, a substantial third party, a charismatic Democratic challenger, social unrest, or major snags in the rebuilding of Iraq. I believe that if two or more of these things happen, Bush will be defeated; otherwise, he will be re-elected. So in 2004, it may not be just the economy.