Blogtrek

Does Hillary Clinton have charisma?

Now the fuss in the media is about Hillary Clinton. She just finished publishing a book and she has appeared on 2 TV shows including a Larry King show. According to her the adventuring of her husband to other women did hurt the marriage a bit but the marriage survived it; she and her husband were united against the prosecutors and the hypermedia who sought to blow the crisis up for whatever they can get. But now the question is: can Hillary run against Bush in 2004 and defeat him? She is not an announced candidate and is possibly eyeing 2008 instead, but a sizeable draft-Clinton movement could persuade her to change her mind. How would she stack up against Bush?

A Democrat in a race against an incumbent can influence the race in only one way by him or herself, namely by being charismatic. This is the one Lichtman key that a Democrat can control. So is Hillary charismatic? I'd say so. Look at all the people who come wanting her to sign their copy of her book. Look at all the media attention. Why? To me she is an excellent speaker, and she seems to champion the cause of women everywhere, because she is assertive and speaks her mind. She is especially popular with them and can be expected to take much of their vote if she ran against Bush. However, she is abrasive at times and for some reason men find her threatening. I don't find her threatening. But as long as there exist men that find her threatening, that may be a point against her being charismatic. But just about every charismatic politician - both Kennedys, William Jennings Bryan and so forth have had an unusual number of enemies. So that may not say that she is not charismatic. In my opinion she is; at least she is more so than any of the Democrats now running. If so, then if she runs, she will cause Bush to lose Lichtman Key 13. This means that only two more keys are needed to topple Bush. If the economy totters - and the rising costs of oil and gas could do that - and if something else happens, such as a scandal, a major riot, or a third party candidate getting more than 5% of the vote, then Bush will be defeated in 2004. It still is a long shot, but I believe that it is the best chance the Democrats have. 2008, schmoo-thousand eight. The Democrats need to persuade Hillary to enter the 2004 race, and to enter it now.