Blogtrek

Wesley Clark for President?

Here is now another possible candidate for President in 2004. He is former Gen. Wesley Clark, former NATO chief. Would he make a good candidate? Could he win? And how would his candidacy affect the election?

First of all, which party would he run as? He has not said yet. But I would recommend that he not run as a Democrat. He does not have charisma, and that is the only way a Democrat can materially affect the election, according to the Lichtman keys. If he were to run as a Democrat, then what was going to happen will happen; probably Bush's reelection. I therefore would recommend that he run as a Republican or as an independent. In either of these ways he could topple keys against the President. If he ran as a Republican opposing Bush for the nomination, he could prevent Bush from getting 2/3 of the vote on the first ballot, costing him the challenge for the nomination key (Key 2). If he ran as an independent, he would be a third prarty candidate. If he got 5% of the vote or more, that would cost Bush Key 4. Or he could run on the Republican line, fail by a close margin to upset Bush, then run as an independent against him and topple both Keys 2 and 4. If this were the case, and the Democrats select Hillary, that would be six keys against Bush, and Hillary would be our next President.

How likely is all this? Not very at this point, but things could change. The fact remains though that I want Gen. Clark to run either as a Republican or as an independent.