Blogtrek

The 1965 Principle

A lot of statements have been made about this blackout that the Northeast recently had. For example, this is the worst blackout this nation has ever had. This blackout disrupted the lives of 50 million (figure is hyped up; see my previous blog). The blackout is a sign of things that could come. And I myself said that this is a precursor to shortages of oil, electricity, and natural gas.

However, a lot of these claims are hyped up or are bogus. How can you tell? Apply the 1965 principle: Any statement that is made about the blackout that occurred this year must also be true about the 1965 November 9 blackout. These two blackouts were near twins of each other. A local problem happened somewhere, and it spread all over the place in the Northeast, causing the lack of electricity to between 20 and 30 million people, in both 1965 and 2003. So any statement that is true about one is likely to be true of the other.

For example, this blackout may not be a foreboding of things to come. Sure there is an oil shortage coming around 2010, a natural gas shortage next year, and an electrical shortage coming in 2005. But how can the blackout of 2003 be a precursor of these when the blackout of 1965 clearly was not? In 1965 there was plenty of electrical power, oil, and natural gas. Sure the 2003 blackout may cause people to take a look at these other problems; in that case, I am glad that it occurred. But the 2003 blackout has nothing to do with these problems, because otherwise the 1965 blackout would have been followed by the same problems.

People acted courteously and civilly at this blackout. That’s OK. They did in 1965 as well. But this can’t be said to be because of Planeattack on 2001 September 11 or the events that followed that awful day, because there was no such event before the 1965 blackout; I don’t think the Kennedy assassination qualifies. It is said that this blackout means that we have a Third World transmission system. Be careful when you say that. That implies that we had a Third World transmission system in 1965, which says that we have done absolutely nothing about it in the 38 years since then.

I think that one reason why people make these blithe statements without taking 1965 into account is that many people, including many of the hypermedia, were not even born in 1965, or were kids who were more concerned about Tinkertoys and Mickey Mouse than about power generation. Those of us who were adults in 1965 know what happened then, and can appreciate how similar this blackout was to that one.

I still think we have problems ahead. But don’t believe it when you hear hype in the media about the Great Blackout of 2003 that doesn’t take 1965 into account.