Blogtrek

Presidential Elections

Earlier I had said that Dean could be one of the Greatest Presidents in History, rivaling Washington, Lincoln, and FD Roosevelt. But there are some things about Dean that unnerve me. His comments on guys with trucks with Confederate flags, his wanting to appeal to those who believe in literal Gods and Bibles, and his having Don Beyer, a car dealer, as his treasurer. To me, car dealers and repair shops have the least reliability of any place that I have seen. For that reason I never voted for Beyer, even if that meant voting Republican. Somehow I don't think Dean fits the role. But Wesley Clark can. He has military experience, and seems to be showing some charisma.

So what does that mean about the Presidential race? Bush has lost four Lichtman keys but right now is holding on to the other nine. If the election were held today, Bush would win easily. Recall that I said that the next Great President would be a Democrat, the one to succeed Bush. Since I don't see Dean filling that role, I conclude that if Dean is nominated, Bush will win. If, however, Clark catches up with Dean and wins the nomination, Bush could be in trouble.

So what's happening? According to recent polls, Clark is catching up to Dean in some of these primaries. The fact that Dean has taken a huge lead this early may work to his disadvantage, because it means that eight Democratic candidates take their ire off Bush and shoot it towards Dean. So Clark's surge may be a sign that Bush is headed for rough times ahead.