Blogtrek

Bush and Kerry have cleared the starting line

The Presidential campaign has started. Bush and Kerry are off and running, and so is Ralph Nader and some others. So how has it gone so far? In my opinion, both have made mistakes.

Bush accuses Kerry of being a tax-raising liberal. He chose a good time to say that, just before Independence Day and by that I mean the real Independence Day, namely April 15. Most of us have hit tax conniptions, so that is going to give him votes. For example, I found out that I could not contribute all that I wanted to into an IRA.

Bush accuses Kerry of asking for a hefty increase in the gasoline tax. He even has a Kerry gasoline calculator on his web site. The Bush camp needs to straighten out that site. You have to scroll to find the calculator. Most visitors won't bother, and will get the image of a President who promises but doesn't give. But it does compute how much more it will cost you. Easy come, easy go, and when it's gone, it's gone. No, Bush. This is a mistake. People may complain about gasoline prices, but there is a good reason why we need them now, namely the end of cheap oil, which may be as soon as 2008. We need something to urge people to conserve, and so that the proceeds from ever higher and higher prices of gasoline go not to the oil companies or Saudi Arabia, but to the US government, who can fund alternative fuels or help for those who need it, or even a big income tax cut. Kerry is right on this one and he needs to call for both an income tax cut and a gasoline tax raise.

Kerry says that Bush is doing nothing about gasoline prices. Yes he is. Only he is going about it wrong. He is trying to lower gasoline prices by drilling Alaska and by sending myriads of soldiers into Iraq.

So both candidates are stumbling from the starting line.

By the way, polls are showing an improvement for Bush, and Bush is claiming credit. No. Recent weeks have seen a deterioration for the President instead, if one is following Allan Lichtman's Keys to the White House. Key 9 (Scandal) and Key 8 (social unrest) are both shaking a bit more than they had been, increasing the probability that Bush will lose the keys and the election. Bush is still favored to win, but he was even more favored earlier when Kerry had an 8-point lead in the polls. The polls are fun to watch, but the don't make sense now.