Blogtrek

It is now too close to call

Up to now I have been saying that Bush will probably win election this fall because he has lost only 4 Lichtman keys. A while back I said that Bush may lose Key 9 (Scandal) but he probably would still be re-elected, since he still will have lost only 5 keys.

I now say the election is too close to call. It has been behaving that way for a while. A look at Rasmussen Reports shows that for the past few months, Bush and Kerry have been running neck and neck. The graphs of their percentages intertwine with each other like a braid. But it is not the polls primarily that make me say that it is too close to call; they are almost meaningless at this time anyway. No, what's happened is that three of the keys are so shaky that is probable that one or more of them will fall by Election Day, and if two or three of them fall, Bush will be defeated. These are the Short Term Economy Key 5; the Scandal Key 9; and the Foreign or Military Success Key 11.

Short Term Economy. The economy has been perking up as of late. The stock market has been going up and companies are earning more on their bottom lines up front. It seems now that the employment rates are picking up. However, a Rasmussen poll shows that a substantial portion of the American electorate think that we are in or about to head into a recession. If that's the case, the key falls, since what people perceive, not what is in some table of statistics, is what matters with respect to the economics keys. Further, there are trouble signs ahead. The price of gasoline keeps going up and up and up, and I feel that it will go up until people stop demanding it. Since people feel they have to go to work and so forth, and since they feel that $2 and $3 /gallon gasoline won't bother them, the price is likely to exceed $4/gallon. That will certainly hurt the economy. And there is the threat of higher interest rates and the ballooning federal deficit. To me this points to a possible setback in the economy, one which may cause Key 5 to fail.

Scandal. The pictures keep coming and coming and coming. Each new prison abuse scandal picture raises questions and keeps the scandal alive like twigs being added to a fire. A few down the line are being punished, but it seems to me that this scandal is going to affect the higher-ups. Sen. McCain says that the administration should not let it dribble out like this and should come clean with it all. But the clincher is Lichtman himself saying in El País that "Rumsfeld…is a political corpse." I.e., we may have bi-partisan criticism of the scandal and high officials about to leave. This would constitute scandal as far as Key 9 is concerned and would cause the key to fall. I said earlier that it has fallen, but I now see that people need to perceive of it as a major scandal, and this may not have happened yet. But if things continue like they are, it will.

Foreign or Military Success. It seemed at first that Bush earned this. He got rid of a cruel dictator and was going to make it easier for 112 billion Iraqi barrels of oil to get onto the market. But now the perception is that we have gotten into a quagmire instead. This together with the prison scandal may take away this key; Lichtman has expressed some hesitation now as to whether he has this key.

In summary, all three of these keys are shaky indeed, and it seems probable that Key 9 will fall. To me it now seems possible, but not certain, that two or three of these keys will have fallen by Election Day, and if that happens, Bush will lose. Of course if only one of these keys fall, Bush will win. So it is my opinion now that the election is too close to call. Further deterioration of these key's positions may lead to my calling the election for Kerry.