Blogtrek

We Got Him!

Today when I got up and looked at the Web I saw an unlikely but possible event had just happened. US and other forces in Iraq had captured Saddam Hussein! This sounds like a joyous day, especially for Iraq. The dictator has been captured. He was the Ace of Spades. But Iraq reminds me more of chess than of cards. They captured a bishop there, a pawn here, and here a rook gets captured, and then over the summer a couple of queens. Today, however, was checkmate. Supposedly the game is over. But I also thought about Dorothy's arrival in Oz that killed the Wicked Witch of the East. The people all started singing "Oh, Ho, the Wicked Witch, the Wicked Witch is dead!" and I thought of the Lewis Carroll poem "Jabberwocky", and especially the lyrics "Oh frabjous day! Calloo! Callay!" and "Hast Thou Killed the Jabberwock, my Son?"

This Jabberwock is not dead, however. That is good, because he can talk about what's been going on in Iraq for the past 30 years or so. Now with the head of the old regime gone, it seems that things should improve remarkably in Iraq. Indeed, this may happen. Perhaps the people conducting the attacks were so doing in Saddam's name, and with Saddam captured, the appeal of his mystique may vanish.

However, there are some who think other things may happen. An article by Ayaz Amir in the Pakistani web periodical Dawn, says this: "If Saddam were captured or killed, this resistance, far from dying down, would gather more strength." He says this is because the resistance to occupation forces is more broad-based than just Saddam loyalists and is focused more on America.

So now we need to know which is the case. That may determine whether Bush gets reelected. If the Iraq situation remarkably improves, he may become unbeatable, as Lichtman himself said today. If the Iraq situation gets worse, Bush may squeak by if the economy stays good, but if it deteriorates, then Bush is in trouble. The next two or three weeks may tell the story.