Blogtrek

Will Dean Be One of Our Greatest Presidents?

So how does the Presidential race look right now, with Saddam captured? It will give an immediate boost to Bush, but it won't last. Already, attacks are continuing at pretty much the same pace as before. Since Saddam had no cellular phone and absolutely no way of communicating with others on the outside, therefore, the bulk of insurgents in Iraq are anti-US rather than pro-Saddam, and so they will not go away. So there will be basically no change.

Right now it seems that Bush will get elected unless the Iraq situation gets out of hand so bad that it causes keys to topple, and the economy sputters. This is certainly possible. But what it means is that if Dean is elected, then these things will have occurred. This means that Dean will have a hard task ahead of him, trying to run a country whose economy is listless and with the Iraq situation getting even worse than ever. I don't know if I want that kind of job; it would be highly stressful. If Bush gets elected, that means he will have either a good economy or a good situation in Iraq with him, or both, so he will have an easy time of it.

But look - how will the economy topple and Iraq get much worse? By the Fourth Turning starting then, that's how. These conditions will smack Bush in the face and lead to his defeat, leaving Dean with the task of putting it back together. Dean will be a Fourth Turning President, and the previous Fourth Turning Presidents - Washington, Lincoln, and FD Roosevelt, have been the greatest Presidents we have had. This means, unlikely as it seems now, that Dean will become one of our greatest Presidents also. He will be the one that will get us over the Iraq mess, a weak economy or even a depression, and the results of the upcoming oil and other resources shortage.

However, if Bush gets elected, that will because 2005 will enter still in the Third Turning. During Bush's second term, he will get whacked by the Fourth Turning - probably the oil shortage, and he will either resign or lose the next election in a landslide, perhaps to Hillary Clinton. This means that Bush will go down in history as one of our bottom-tier presidents, and Hillary will be one of our Greatest Presidents.

So it is interesting that the answer to the question, "Is being the President of this country going to be an enormous challenge?" will be Yes if Dean gets elected and No if Bush gets re-elected, and this is concluded based on a combination of the Lichtman Keys theory and the Fourth Turning theory. It will be interesting to see what happens.