Blogtrek

Nader, please don't run

I heard this morning that Nader is running for President. Nader, please don't run. The Election of 2000 was so close that x in the sentence, "If x had happened, then Gore would have won the election." could be anyone of a number of things; for example, "If he had won his home state", "If the ballot in Palm Beach County had not been misdesigned", "If he had won New Hampshire.", and so forth. But one thing that could certainly be substituted for x is "If Nader hadn't run". For if a mere smidgen of votes for Nader had gone for Gore instead in Florida, Gore would have taken Florida, pregnant chads or no, and if the polls were correct that Nader voters would gone 2/3 for Gore if Nader had not run, then Gore would have taken New Hampshire as well. Nader's running in 2004 raises this specter again.

Now the Lichtman keys theory has a key for independent candidates, namely Key 4, which says "There is no major third party challenge." The criteria for this is 5%. But maybe a Nader candidacy would not count since he would hurt the Democrat. Or one could argue reduction ad absurdum that if Nader gets more than 5%, the Bush is helped, since he would take votes away from the Democrat, and Bush would be hurt since that would cause Key 4 to fall. This contradiction would then show that Nader will not get 5% this fall. I think he will not even get 1%. Too many people know what happened in 2000 and they will not let it happen again.

But still his presence threatens the Democratic candidate and hence the very ideas that Nader is espousing. No, Nader. You don't defeat Bush by running. You defeat him by helping the best chance there is of defeating him: Kerry or Edwards, or whoever the nominee is. Please don't run. Quit now. I'll put it to a song, song to the words of Hit the Road, Jack:

Please don't run, Ralph,
Please don't run and run and your case push,
Pleases don't run, Ralph,
And throw the election to Bush…

(Nader: What you'd say??)