Blogtrek

Has the Scandal Key fallen?

Who will win the Presidential Election this fall? Allan Lichtman, a history professor at American University, came up with a list of 13 criteria for determining the winner of a presidential election. His method works for all elections from 1860-2000, although it does predict the popular vote winner, as Gore in 2000, instead of the electoral vote winner, and it does not work for elections before 1856. It does not work for 1856, in particular, suggesting that Fremont won that election. The reference above says that for 2004, 8 of the keys are standing for the incumbent candidate (Bush), 4 of the keys have fallen (become false), and one was shaky (the short term economy key).

Up to now that still seems to be the case. Bush clinched Key 2 when he got enough delegates to win 2/3 of the votes for the Republican nomination. He won Key 13 when Tom Edwards, possibly charismatic, gave up his quest for the Presidency. Five keys are still in play: 4, Third Party; 8, social unrest; 9, scandal; 11, foreign or military success, and 5, short-term economy. Bush seemed to have these, although Key 5 is shaky because of high gasoline prices and expectation of rising interest rates, and Key 11 is shaky because of the increasing GI deaths and violence in Iraq. But has the Scandal Key fallen?

I am talking about those pictures from Al Gharib Prison in Baghdad. They have really caused a furor, including calls for Secretary of Defense Rumsfeld to resign. They are really horrible. We send our troops to free the Iraqis from atrocities committed by the Saddam regime, and then we commit atrocities ourselves. If a man were to abduct a bunch of women and pile them up in stacks, put them in sexual positions, and drag them on the floor on a leash, we would say that he was a sexual predator, we would post him on web sites and we would get all flustered if such a predator were to move into our neighborhood. Yet here are female GIs doing the same to male prisoners at the prison. It seems that we have one standard for Americans and one for Iraqis. The Arab world is in uproar about it, terror attacks have become more likely, and our European allies do not respect us as much. So this is a major scandal. Will it cost Bush the scandal key?

I think it will. Compare the scandal with other scandals. The comparisons are that the Iran-Contra scandal during Reagan's administration was not a Key 9 Scandal, whereas Lewinsky was for Gore (Clinton), and Watergate was for Ford (Nixon). So how does Prison Abuse compare with these? It is worse than Iran-Contra, since abusing people is worse than bilking them out of money or giving a rebel group the money. Furthermore, there is the hypocrisy of saying that we are freeing Iraqis, and then giving them torture just like Saddam did. It is definitely worse than Lewinsky, since that was a consensual sexual dalliance, whereas what happened in the prison was sexual harassment and assault. It is even worse than Watergate, since mistreating people is worse than breaking and entering to bug a headquarters. So this would certainly qualify. But it will only if people think it will. From what I have heard from people, apparently it will. One person says that if the sides were reversed, we would be squawking about the Iraqis and demanding retribution.

It remains to be seen if this scandal will worsen to Key 9 extent, although certainly it will affect our relations with Arab regimes for years to come. But from what I have seen, I think if the key has not fallen, it will shortly. This means that Bush now has lost five keys. I still predict Bush will win but he is hanging right on the borderline; it is far more uncertain now. If Bush loses another key (most likely Key 5, economy, or Key 11, foreign success), Kerry will be our next President. And with rising gasoline prices and a worsening situation in Iraq, this could very well happen. The contest is now much closer now than it has been only a few weeks ago.