Hurricane Party

It's hurricane time again, and sure enough the Great Den of Hurricanes, namely the Atlantic Ocean, is brewing trouble. Now it is Hurricane Francis, following a course somewhat similar to Isabel last year and to Floyd in 1999. Further, there are two more. Gaston just landed in South Carolina, and is supposed to make this area of Virginia diluvian, with several inches of rain. Hermine is out in the Atlantic but the Global Forecasting System (GFS) does not show it much; I think it will simply disappear.

Francis is the one I am concerned about. I have been following this storm for about a week or maybe even longer, before it even existed! The GFS makes it possible to follow a storm up to 16 days in advance. Some of the previous runs had it turning around in Florida and heading up here to Virginia, and that had me concerned. This past weekend, they started to head Francis into the GOM (i.e., Gulf of Mexico) after striking southern Florida, which sure does not need such a hurricane. It then would hit the Gulf Coast somewhere and head to the north northwest, perhaps affecting Indiana or Michigan.

As of late, the GFS started to move it to the east. The 12Z run today was really scary. It showed it going into Savannah, GA, and then heading into western Virginia after clobbering Charlotte like Hugo did in 1989. Not only that, but then after that a long train of hurricanes was following in its path, ready to strike the Carolinas in turn: Ivan, Jeanne, and Karl. I got the 18Z run today and it shows a more southerly path, hitting Fort Pierce, Florida, and then into Georgia and Kentucky. We would just get a little rain. And the traffic jam of hurricanes in the Atlantic is gone: just one little storm (Ivan) that turns away long before hitting the East Coast.

The runs are consistent enough to show clearly that someone is going to get 'caned. It is probably in Florida, but I hope we don't have another Isabel. So I am going to keep a watch of this storm, and also Ivan.