Blogtrek

Dean for President

I think I know which candidate I want for President next year. Former Vermont Governor Howard Dean.

I certainly don't want Bush for another four years. He has been bad news in a lot of ways: refusing to join with other nations in the Tokyo Environmental Accords; attacking Iraq against allies' advice and causing a quagmire; getting the 1984ian Patriot Act passed, and so forth. So I have been looking at the Democrats. Do I want someone who I think could get elected, like Sen. Tom Edwards of North Carolina or Sen. Kerry of Massachusetts, or do I want someone whose views resemble mine? Do I want to favor a front runner or a back runner? The Lichtman keys give me a clue to this.

According to Allan Lichtman, there are 13 keys, consisting of statements that are either true or false for a candidate from the incumbent party. The incumbent party candidate wins if and only if at most five of the keys are false. Right now Bush has two of the keys (that is, the keys are true) and has lost probably four of them (that is, the keys are false). Getting two more keys to fall will be hard. But one thing about them stands out: none of them pertain to the opposing candidate except for Key 13, which says that this candidate is not charismatic or a national hero. Neither Bush nor any of the Democratic hopefuls except possibly Hillary Clinton are charismatic.

This implies that it does not make any difference who the Democrats select as far as Bush's reelection chances are concerned. If Bush has the keys, he will be reelected no matter what. If Bush does not have the keys, he will be defeated no matter whom the Democrats select. Therefore, I want the Democrats to select someone who reflects my views, not someone who will compromise some of these views in order to get elected, for it does not make any difference as far as getting elected is concerned.

Hence I want Howard Dean for President, since he represents my views better than any of the other candidates do.