Blogtrek

It's the Economy, Sir

I think I may have a fix for what is going to happen in next year's Presidential election. It looks like Bush is going to be elected, but this is not certain. In fact, in 1991 September, a Lichtman key analysis would have yielded a probable George HW Bush (Daddy Bush?) win. In fact, the two Bushes are in quite similar positions.

Back to 1991. It looked like at this time that George HW Bush would win the election over which Democrat the Democrats could come up with - there were at least six candidates, or "dwarfs". Bush had the Foreign/Military Failure Key 10 (i.e., none happened), the Incumbency Key 3, the Mandate Key 1, the Challenger Charisma Key 13, and the Scandal Key 9. He had lost four keys: the Short Term Economy Key 5, the Policy Key 7, the Long Term Economy Key 6, and the Incumbent Charisma Key 12. There were 4 keys in play: the Short Term Economy Key 5, and a group of three keys I call the "Dissatisfaction" keys, because their falling represents public discontent with the President or his party. These are Social Unrest Key 8, Challenge to Party Nomination Key 2, and Third Party key 4. The economy was not going well at all, with high unemployment and stocks going flat. But it was beginning to pick up. It looked like Bush would win unless the economy stayed sour, losing Key 5, and this caused so much dissatisfaction that one of the Dissatisfaction Keys falls as well. But we all know that is indeed what happened. The economy stayed sour in perception; although the economy was growing again in 1992, the high unemployment rate made people think the economy was ailing. This led to an unknown rich blowhard named Ross Perot, when he entered the race, to get so many votes that he actually led at times. After he lost the lead, the Democratic challenger (Bill Clinton) took the lead and won the election.

In 2003, it looks like the same circumstances prevail. Dubya Bush has won the same keys and lost the same keys as his father in 1991, except that Daddy had Key 10 but not Key 1 and Dubya has Key 1 (result of Republican sweep of 2002 elections) but not Key 10 (because of Planeattack). Exactly the same keys are outstanding. The economy is weak, but starting to grow, as in 1991, and like 1991 has a high unemployment rate. The Democrats have to choose among 9 dwarfs. Like Daddy Bush, Dubya had won a war big in Iraq. So it would seem the same thing can be predicted here: Bush, unless the economy sags, taking another key down with it.

But the situation is not as favorable as 1991's. In 1991 we had Wallfall (1989 Nov 9); in 2003 we have Towerfall (2001 Sept 11). People were talking freedom, with all these countries getting free of dictatorial rule, in 1991, but were talking security out of fear of terrorist attacks in 2003. And the recession and stagnant stock prices have lasted longer now than they had in 1991. Both Bushes won big in Iraq, but after Gulf War I the soldiers went home, but after this year's Gulf War, the soldiers are staying in Iraq for an infinite amount of time. So to me if the economy continues to stay bad, dissatisfaction against Dubya would be greater than against Daddy in 1991-2. It will be amplified by the dissatisfaction caused by the extended tours of duty in Iraq. (When is my honey coming home?) And we know that Daddy lost Key 5 plus another key, namely 4 and lost the election. So it would follow that Dubya would lose the election even more badly; in fact, two dissatisfaction keys may fall. I know that there is nothing now that would turn the dissatisfaction keys, but if the economy continues to sour, I predict that some of these will fall, along with the short term economy key and that would do Dubya in. However, if the economy does perk up, the dissatisfaction keys will stand; with only 4 keys down, Dubya will win.

So it all depends on the economy now. If it gets substantially better, President Bush will win; if it continues to stagnate, he will lose. So watch the markets and the economy data; they are key to the election.