Blogtrek

Isabel Day 2: Deep Impact

Isabel is continuing to head north of west. Forecasters have been saying she should head due west, but so far it has not happened. She has reached 20 degrees north, and according to these forecasters, she should now turn west. We will see if she does so.

In the meantime, I have four more Isabel scenarios from GFS. The latest one takes it right into central Virginia, where it piles more rain than we ever need this year. Here is the Isabel summary, where the 0, 6, 12 and 18 are the hours of the runs in Universal Time:

2003 September 7
12 - New England
18 - sea

2003 September 8
0 - Maine
6 - S. Florida
12 - Nova Scotia
18 - Delmarva, Baltimore 2003 Sept 21 2 am EDT

2003 September 9
0 - sea, turning around on 2003 Sept 23 8 pm EDT
6 - Nova Scotia 2003 Sept 23 2 am EDT
12 - Myrtle Beach (another Floyd) 2003 Sept 23 8 pm EDT
18 - S. Florida, then heads up to Central Virginia 2003 September 23

That's the date it strikes Florida. It strikes Virginia a day later, and then heads towards New York City. This pattern of hitting some place on the East Coast has now come with about 75% of the runs. As Gary Gray says, "It remains way too early to say anything solid on that. Suffice it to say that the model trends and unanimity favor some sort of impact." You heard it folks. Deep Impact is coming. It's two weeks away. Where it will strike is anybody's guess - might as well play roulette. But it's likely to impact somewhere, so the entire East Coast should monitor this storm.