Blogtrek

Nader won't do as well this time

I see that Nader is again running for President. The last time he did that, in 2000, he could be said to have thrown the election from Gore to Bush. Nader took only 2% in Florida, but that was much greater than the margin of difference between Gore and Bush. Nader threw Florida from Gore to Bush, and threw the whole Presidency that way as well.

So now he endangers the Democrats' 2004 challenger to Bush, probably Howard Dean. Or does he? What happens if he were to make a major run for the President and get at least 5% of the vote? According to the Lichtman key theory, it would hurt Bush, as it would cost Bush the third party key (3DP). But it would also help Bush, as Nader would take almost all of his votes away from the Democratic candidate. That's a contradiction. This contradiction shows that my "what happens" above can't happen, and so therefore Nader will have little effect on the upcoming election. In my view, he may be lucky to get 1%. There is more of an imperative to stop Bush now than there was in 1999 and 2000, and so I expect that many in the Nader camp in 2000 will vote for the Democrat this time.