It is now too close to call
Up to now I have been saying that Bush will probably win election this fall because he has lost only 4 Lichtman keys. A while back I said that Bush may lose Key 9 (Scandal) but he probably would still be re-elected, since he still will have lost only 5 keys.
I now say the election is too close to call. It has been behaving that way for a while. A look at Rasmussen Reports shows that for the past few months, Bush and Kerry have been running neck and neck. The graphs of their percentages intertwine with each other like a braid. But it is not the polls primarily that make me say that it is too close to call; they are almost meaningless at this time anyway. No, what's happened is that three of the keys are so shaky that is probable that one or more of them will fall by Election Day, and if two or three of them fall, Bush will be defeated. These are the Short Term Economy Key 5; the Scandal Key 9; and the Foreign or Military Success Key 11.
Short Term Economy. The economy has been perking up as of late. The stock market has been going up and companies are earning more on their bottom lines up front. It seems now that the employment rates are picking up. However, a Rasmussen poll shows that a substantial portion of the American electorate think that we are in or about to head into a recession. If that's the case, the key falls, since what people perceive, not what is in some table of statistics, is what matters with respect to the economics keys. Further, there are trouble signs ahead. The price of gasoline keeps going up and up and up, and I feel that it will go up until people stop demanding it. Since people feel they have to go to work and so forth, and since they feel that $2 and $3 /gallon gasoline won't bother them, the price is likely to exceed $4/gallon. That will certainly hurt the economy. And there is the threat of higher interest rates and the ballooning federal deficit. To me this points to a possible setback in the economy, one which may cause Key 5 to fail.
Scandal. The pictures keep coming and coming and coming. Each new prison abuse scandal picture raises questions and keeps the scandal alive like twigs being added to a fire. A few down the line are being punished, but it seems to me that this scandal is going to affect the higher-ups. Sen. McCain says that the administration should not let it dribble out like this and should come clean with it all. But the clincher is Lichtman himself saying in El País that "Rumsfeld…is a political corpse." I.e., we may have bi-partisan criticism of the scandal and high officials about to leave. This would constitute scandal as far as Key 9 is concerned and would cause the key to fall. I said earlier that it has fallen, but I now see that people need to perceive of it as a major scandal, and this may not have happened yet. But if things continue like they are, it will.
Foreign or Military Success. It seemed at first that Bush earned this. He got rid of a cruel dictator and was going to make it easier for 112 billion Iraqi barrels of oil to get onto the market. But now the perception is that we have gotten into a quagmire instead. This together with the prison scandal may take away this key; Lichtman has expressed some hesitation now as to whether he has this key.
In summary, all three of these keys are shaky indeed, and it seems probable that Key 9 will fall. To me it now seems possible, but not certain, that two or three of these keys will have fallen by Election Day, and if that happens, Bush will lose. Of course if only one of these keys fall, Bush will win. So it is my opinion now that the election is too close to call. Further deterioration of these key's positions may lead to my calling the election for Kerry.
A Journey through Blogrealm
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2004/05/21
2004/05/13
A comet and the International Space Station
It is not publicized much except in astronomical circles but there are two fairly bright comets out there, NEAT and LINEAR. They are named after satellites. It does not mean that they are nice clean easy-to-understand bodies. I went out to try to find comet NEAT tonight at about 2004 May 13 2132. I could not find it at first (a Sky and Tel map suggests it is at the intersection of parallel lines drawn through the Gemini twins and Procyon), but then I caught onto something else: a moving yellow star in the west. I thought plane at first, but the light was steady, yellow, and moving steady with no noise or huge increase in brightness. So I thought this was the International Space Station. I followed it across the sky, going through the bowl of the Big Dipper, and then it disappeared in trees to the east of Ursa Major. I looked it up in http://www.heavens-above.com and found this line:
Date Mag Starts Max. Altitude Ends
Time Alt. Az. Time Alt. Az. Time Alt. Az.
13 May -0.6 21:31:23 10 SW 21:34:20 74 NW 21:37:21 10 NE
Sure enough, this was the International Space Station pass. I looked at the diagram at this site,
and it matched what I saw perfectly. So I saw the Station tonight, and what made it interesting was that I was not specially planning on looking for it; I just happened to see it serendipitously when I was looking for something else.
Oh, yes. I looked a little harder and I did find a smidgeon of light which I believe was the comet. Interesting but not as spectacular as Hyakutake or Hale-Bopp.
By the way, be CAREFUL when going to the Heavens Above website. I superaccented the hyphen above. It is important. If you omit it and/or get the extension wrong, you may wind up with a window in your face asking if you would like to change your default web page to such and such, and then it may start doing other evil things. Apparently someone has set up a trap to some spyware. I took care of the problem by killing every browser window on the screen with the Task Manager. So be careful and make sure that hyphen is in there!
It is not publicized much except in astronomical circles but there are two fairly bright comets out there, NEAT and LINEAR. They are named after satellites. It does not mean that they are nice clean easy-to-understand bodies. I went out to try to find comet NEAT tonight at about 2004 May 13 2132. I could not find it at first (a Sky and Tel map suggests it is at the intersection of parallel lines drawn through the Gemini twins and Procyon), but then I caught onto something else: a moving yellow star in the west. I thought plane at first, but the light was steady, yellow, and moving steady with no noise or huge increase in brightness. So I thought this was the International Space Station. I followed it across the sky, going through the bowl of the Big Dipper, and then it disappeared in trees to the east of Ursa Major. I looked it up in http://www.heavens-above.com and found this line:
Date Mag Starts Max. Altitude Ends
Time Alt. Az. Time Alt. Az. Time Alt. Az.
13 May -0.6 21:31:23 10 SW 21:34:20 74 NW 21:37:21 10 NE
Sure enough, this was the International Space Station pass. I looked at the diagram at this site,
and it matched what I saw perfectly. So I saw the Station tonight, and what made it interesting was that I was not specially planning on looking for it; I just happened to see it serendipitously when I was looking for something else.
Oh, yes. I looked a little harder and I did find a smidgeon of light which I believe was the comet. Interesting but not as spectacular as Hyakutake or Hale-Bopp.
By the way, be CAREFUL when going to the Heavens Above website. I superaccented the hyphen above. It is important. If you omit it and/or get the extension wrong, you may wind up with a window in your face asking if you would like to change your default web page to such and such, and then it may start doing other evil things. Apparently someone has set up a trap to some spyware. I took care of the problem by killing every browser window on the screen with the Task Manager. So be careful and make sure that hyphen is in there!
2004/05/12
Disturbing phone call from the Kerry camp?
Today at 2004 May 12 1915 EDT, I received a call from "unavailable" and answered it, so I could get off the phone list of this varmint telemarketer. It turned out to be purportedly from the John Kerry for President campaign. I hope this is not the real Kerry for President campaign doing this, for I find the technique unacceptable. I routinely vote against candidates who throw computer solicitation calls on my telephone. In this case, I can't say that I would vote against Kerry, because I feel that his opponent, Bush, needs to leave office this January, and up to now, I had been supportive of the Kerry campaign. It is quite possible that this is not from the Kerry campaign; after all, it does not end with "I am John Kerry, and I approve of this computer solicitation call". If I had heard that, I would be seriously considering a vote for Ralph Nader instead, and further, urging my Democratic and liberal friends to vote for Nader as well. But no such comment was in the call. I was given the option of 1 for contributing money, 2 for volunteering time, and 3 for neither but willing to vote for Kerry. My response was none of these; I was going to tell them I am now seriously considering voting for Nader. I tried pressing 4, and it said that it was an invalid response. Sorry, call. You are an invalid call, as far as I am concerned. I waited instead and eventually it said goodbye. I then emailed this to the Kerry campaign:
Just now, at 2004 May 12 1915, I received a computer call saying it was from your campaign. It was from an "unavailable" telephone number. It asked if I wanted to contribute, volunteer, or just simply vote for Kerry. I am in favor of Kerry for this election; in fact, I want Bush out of the White House after this year. However, this campaign tactic was unacceptable to me. It is the behavior of a telemarketer; especially disturbing to me was that it came from an unavailable number. I hope that it was not from your campaign, and that it was a telephone spammer purporting to come from your campaign. Please confirm or deny to me that it was not from your campaign. For if it was from your campaign, and I continue to receive such calls, I may very well vote for Nader instead and urge my friends to do so also.
Of course the election campaign is still early, and the Bush camp may also throw computer calls on my telephone, as may Nader. I will keep score on this and report it on this blog. Right now, it is Kerry 1, Bush 0. If Bush leads this score in November, I will certainly vote against him, as I would anyway. If Kerry leads it instead, and Nader hasn't been throwing computer calls on my telephone, I will seriously consider voting for Nader instead. I hope I don't have to do this, but campaigners need to understand that it is not OK for them to put computer calls on my telephone. I just hope it was a spammer instead.
Today at 2004 May 12 1915 EDT, I received a call from "unavailable" and answered it, so I could get off the phone list of this varmint telemarketer. It turned out to be purportedly from the John Kerry for President campaign. I hope this is not the real Kerry for President campaign doing this, for I find the technique unacceptable. I routinely vote against candidates who throw computer solicitation calls on my telephone. In this case, I can't say that I would vote against Kerry, because I feel that his opponent, Bush, needs to leave office this January, and up to now, I had been supportive of the Kerry campaign. It is quite possible that this is not from the Kerry campaign; after all, it does not end with "I am John Kerry, and I approve of this computer solicitation call". If I had heard that, I would be seriously considering a vote for Ralph Nader instead, and further, urging my Democratic and liberal friends to vote for Nader as well. But no such comment was in the call. I was given the option of 1 for contributing money, 2 for volunteering time, and 3 for neither but willing to vote for Kerry. My response was none of these; I was going to tell them I am now seriously considering voting for Nader. I tried pressing 4, and it said that it was an invalid response. Sorry, call. You are an invalid call, as far as I am concerned. I waited instead and eventually it said goodbye. I then emailed this to the Kerry campaign:
Just now, at 2004 May 12 1915, I received a computer call saying it was from your campaign. It was from an "unavailable" telephone number. It asked if I wanted to contribute, volunteer, or just simply vote for Kerry. I am in favor of Kerry for this election; in fact, I want Bush out of the White House after this year. However, this campaign tactic was unacceptable to me. It is the behavior of a telemarketer; especially disturbing to me was that it came from an unavailable number. I hope that it was not from your campaign, and that it was a telephone spammer purporting to come from your campaign. Please confirm or deny to me that it was not from your campaign. For if it was from your campaign, and I continue to receive such calls, I may very well vote for Nader instead and urge my friends to do so also.
Of course the election campaign is still early, and the Bush camp may also throw computer calls on my telephone, as may Nader. I will keep score on this and report it on this blog. Right now, it is Kerry 1, Bush 0. If Bush leads this score in November, I will certainly vote against him, as I would anyway. If Kerry leads it instead, and Nader hasn't been throwing computer calls on my telephone, I will seriously consider voting for Nader instead. I hope I don't have to do this, but campaigners need to understand that it is not OK for them to put computer calls on my telephone. I just hope it was a spammer instead.
2004/05/09
Carly Simon again
On 2003 August 5, I posted a blog about Carly Simon, as the identity of her mystery lover in "You're So Vain" was going to be revealed for $50,000. At that time the speculaion was on Warren Beatty, Mick Jagger, Kris Kristofferson, and Cat Stevens. She has had affairs with all of these. In the song "You're So Vain", Carly says that this man was dressed in an apricot scarf and was looking around to see all the women admire him. Then she describes how he goes gavotting all over the place and how he has affairs with the wife of a close friend. In 30 years, she has never disclosed the identity of this vain man.
The question came about again recently, when a compendium album of her works came out recently, within the week, followed by a CNN story about her. The story said she grew up in difficult circumstances as the youngest child, and described her marriage and divorce to James and later, her struggle with breast cancer. During the program she gave a hint. There is an "e" in his last name. Great help that is. All four possibilities have an "e" in his last name. Then she gave another clue. There is an "a" in his name. This is beginning to sound like Jeopardy now. That does eliminate Kris Kristofferson. and probably Cat Stevens, although I don't know whether she said "last" or not. That leaves Warren Beatty and Mick Jagger. Apparently neither of these two people want to reveal who it is. Maybe he is just a figment of her imagination.
It still is the case that the song is as contradictory as "This sentence is false", saying of itself that it is about this mystery man, but indicating that the man is so vain that he thinks it is about him, indicating that it isn't, causing a contradiction. It is a good background song for mathematics talks, especially those dealing with logic and foundations, because of its antinomy. It is also a good one for astronomy talks, because she sings about an eclipse. So every once in a while I play it.
Back in 2003 I also mentioned that I wrote a song, of which some of the lyrics are at jimvb.home.mindspring.com/music2002.htm . The song refers to meeting a woman between a fire and a storm under a rainbow. I said at that time that it is about someone, and I will tell when Carly Simon tells. That still holds.
On 2003 August 5, I posted a blog about Carly Simon, as the identity of her mystery lover in "You're So Vain" was going to be revealed for $50,000. At that time the speculaion was on Warren Beatty, Mick Jagger, Kris Kristofferson, and Cat Stevens. She has had affairs with all of these. In the song "You're So Vain", Carly says that this man was dressed in an apricot scarf and was looking around to see all the women admire him. Then she describes how he goes gavotting all over the place and how he has affairs with the wife of a close friend. In 30 years, she has never disclosed the identity of this vain man.
The question came about again recently, when a compendium album of her works came out recently, within the week, followed by a CNN story about her. The story said she grew up in difficult circumstances as the youngest child, and described her marriage and divorce to James and later, her struggle with breast cancer. During the program she gave a hint. There is an "e" in his last name. Great help that is. All four possibilities have an "e" in his last name. Then she gave another clue. There is an "a" in his name. This is beginning to sound like Jeopardy now. That does eliminate Kris Kristofferson. and probably Cat Stevens, although I don't know whether she said "last" or not. That leaves Warren Beatty and Mick Jagger. Apparently neither of these two people want to reveal who it is. Maybe he is just a figment of her imagination.
It still is the case that the song is as contradictory as "This sentence is false", saying of itself that it is about this mystery man, but indicating that the man is so vain that he thinks it is about him, indicating that it isn't, causing a contradiction. It is a good background song for mathematics talks, especially those dealing with logic and foundations, because of its antinomy. It is also a good one for astronomy talks, because she sings about an eclipse. So every once in a while I play it.
Back in 2003 I also mentioned that I wrote a song, of which some of the lyrics are at jimvb.home.mindspring.com/music2002.htm . The song refers to meeting a woman between a fire and a storm under a rainbow. I said at that time that it is about someone, and I will tell when Carly Simon tells. That still holds.
Has the Scandal Key fallen?
Who will win the Presidential Election this fall? Allan Lichtman, a history professor at American University, came up with a list of 13 criteria for determining the winner of a presidential election. His method works for all elections from 1860-2000, although it does predict the popular vote winner, as Gore in 2000, instead of the electoral vote winner, and it does not work for elections before 1856. It does not work for 1856, in particular, suggesting that Fremont won that election. The reference above says that for 2004, 8 of the keys are standing for the incumbent candidate (Bush), 4 of the keys have fallen (become false), and one was shaky (the short term economy key).
Up to now that still seems to be the case. Bush clinched Key 2 when he got enough delegates to win 2/3 of the votes for the Republican nomination. He won Key 13 when Tom Edwards, possibly charismatic, gave up his quest for the Presidency. Five keys are still in play: 4, Third Party; 8, social unrest; 9, scandal; 11, foreign or military success, and 5, short-term economy. Bush seemed to have these, although Key 5 is shaky because of high gasoline prices and expectation of rising interest rates, and Key 11 is shaky because of the increasing GI deaths and violence in Iraq. But has the Scandal Key fallen?
I am talking about those pictures from Al Gharib Prison in Baghdad. They have really caused a furor, including calls for Secretary of Defense Rumsfeld to resign. They are really horrible. We send our troops to free the Iraqis from atrocities committed by the Saddam regime, and then we commit atrocities ourselves. If a man were to abduct a bunch of women and pile them up in stacks, put them in sexual positions, and drag them on the floor on a leash, we would say that he was a sexual predator, we would post him on web sites and we would get all flustered if such a predator were to move into our neighborhood. Yet here are female GIs doing the same to male prisoners at the prison. It seems that we have one standard for Americans and one for Iraqis. The Arab world is in uproar about it, terror attacks have become more likely, and our European allies do not respect us as much. So this is a major scandal. Will it cost Bush the scandal key?
I think it will. Compare the scandal with other scandals. The comparisons are that the Iran-Contra scandal during Reagan's administration was not a Key 9 Scandal, whereas Lewinsky was for Gore (Clinton), and Watergate was for Ford (Nixon). So how does Prison Abuse compare with these? It is worse than Iran-Contra, since abusing people is worse than bilking them out of money or giving a rebel group the money. Furthermore, there is the hypocrisy of saying that we are freeing Iraqis, and then giving them torture just like Saddam did. It is definitely worse than Lewinsky, since that was a consensual sexual dalliance, whereas what happened in the prison was sexual harassment and assault. It is even worse than Watergate, since mistreating people is worse than breaking and entering to bug a headquarters. So this would certainly qualify. But it will only if people think it will. From what I have heard from people, apparently it will. One person says that if the sides were reversed, we would be squawking about the Iraqis and demanding retribution.
It remains to be seen if this scandal will worsen to Key 9 extent, although certainly it will affect our relations with Arab regimes for years to come. But from what I have seen, I think if the key has not fallen, it will shortly. This means that Bush now has lost five keys. I still predict Bush will win but he is hanging right on the borderline; it is far more uncertain now. If Bush loses another key (most likely Key 5, economy, or Key 11, foreign success), Kerry will be our next President. And with rising gasoline prices and a worsening situation in Iraq, this could very well happen. The contest is now much closer now than it has been only a few weeks ago.
Who will win the Presidential Election this fall? Allan Lichtman, a history professor at American University, came up with a list of 13 criteria for determining the winner of a presidential election. His method works for all elections from 1860-2000, although it does predict the popular vote winner, as Gore in 2000, instead of the electoral vote winner, and it does not work for elections before 1856. It does not work for 1856, in particular, suggesting that Fremont won that election. The reference above says that for 2004, 8 of the keys are standing for the incumbent candidate (Bush), 4 of the keys have fallen (become false), and one was shaky (the short term economy key).
Up to now that still seems to be the case. Bush clinched Key 2 when he got enough delegates to win 2/3 of the votes for the Republican nomination. He won Key 13 when Tom Edwards, possibly charismatic, gave up his quest for the Presidency. Five keys are still in play: 4, Third Party; 8, social unrest; 9, scandal; 11, foreign or military success, and 5, short-term economy. Bush seemed to have these, although Key 5 is shaky because of high gasoline prices and expectation of rising interest rates, and Key 11 is shaky because of the increasing GI deaths and violence in Iraq. But has the Scandal Key fallen?
I am talking about those pictures from Al Gharib Prison in Baghdad. They have really caused a furor, including calls for Secretary of Defense Rumsfeld to resign. They are really horrible. We send our troops to free the Iraqis from atrocities committed by the Saddam regime, and then we commit atrocities ourselves. If a man were to abduct a bunch of women and pile them up in stacks, put them in sexual positions, and drag them on the floor on a leash, we would say that he was a sexual predator, we would post him on web sites and we would get all flustered if such a predator were to move into our neighborhood. Yet here are female GIs doing the same to male prisoners at the prison. It seems that we have one standard for Americans and one for Iraqis. The Arab world is in uproar about it, terror attacks have become more likely, and our European allies do not respect us as much. So this is a major scandal. Will it cost Bush the scandal key?
I think it will. Compare the scandal with other scandals. The comparisons are that the Iran-Contra scandal during Reagan's administration was not a Key 9 Scandal, whereas Lewinsky was for Gore (Clinton), and Watergate was for Ford (Nixon). So how does Prison Abuse compare with these? It is worse than Iran-Contra, since abusing people is worse than bilking them out of money or giving a rebel group the money. Furthermore, there is the hypocrisy of saying that we are freeing Iraqis, and then giving them torture just like Saddam did. It is definitely worse than Lewinsky, since that was a consensual sexual dalliance, whereas what happened in the prison was sexual harassment and assault. It is even worse than Watergate, since mistreating people is worse than breaking and entering to bug a headquarters. So this would certainly qualify. But it will only if people think it will. From what I have heard from people, apparently it will. One person says that if the sides were reversed, we would be squawking about the Iraqis and demanding retribution.
It remains to be seen if this scandal will worsen to Key 9 extent, although certainly it will affect our relations with Arab regimes for years to come. But from what I have seen, I think if the key has not fallen, it will shortly. This means that Bush now has lost five keys. I still predict Bush will win but he is hanging right on the borderline; it is far more uncertain now. If Bush loses another key (most likely Key 5, economy, or Key 11, foreign success), Kerry will be our next President. And with rising gasoline prices and a worsening situation in Iraq, this could very well happen. The contest is now much closer now than it has been only a few weeks ago.
2004/05/05
Boycott Disney
In the past two months Disney has made two severe transgressions, and for that reason, I call for a boycott of Disney. I am not going to go to any Disney movies, buy any Disney products, or go to any Disney theme park.
The first of these is that Disney is a junk mailer. I got a piece of mail from them recently, with the letters ATMG in the address. Those letters mean Advanced Toastmaster Gold, which is solely a Toastmasters term, and in fact is trademarked by Toastmasters. Apparently Disney got a hold of a list of Toastmasters and started sending out mass mail to the people on this list. This is a direct violation of Toastmasters policy, which states that lists of Toastmasters and clubs are to be used only for Toastmasters purposes. Disney Enterprises has violated this policy.
The second concerns Michael Moore's Fahrenheit 9/11, a film critical of Bush since Planeattack in 2001. I have heard that Disney will not produce the film. Thereby they have proclaimed that they do not believe in freedom of speech. Disney wants to suppress free speech, evidently. I know they are a private corporation, but movies, for instance, are produced only by corporations, and so this denies people the right to see the movies they want. I watched Moore's Bowling for Columbine, about the gunhappiness of America, and found it to be one of the best films I have ever seen. I want to see Fahrenheit 9/11 as well. That does not mean that I necessarily agree with Moore; in fact, I suspect that there is some material of questionable validity in the film. But I still want to see the film itself, and regardless of the content, I expect it to be as good as Bowling for Columbine.
For these two reasons I am boycotting Disney until it stops sending out unwanted material and until it starts producing wanted material.
In the past two months Disney has made two severe transgressions, and for that reason, I call for a boycott of Disney. I am not going to go to any Disney movies, buy any Disney products, or go to any Disney theme park.
The first of these is that Disney is a junk mailer. I got a piece of mail from them recently, with the letters ATMG in the address. Those letters mean Advanced Toastmaster Gold, which is solely a Toastmasters term, and in fact is trademarked by Toastmasters. Apparently Disney got a hold of a list of Toastmasters and started sending out mass mail to the people on this list. This is a direct violation of Toastmasters policy, which states that lists of Toastmasters and clubs are to be used only for Toastmasters purposes. Disney Enterprises has violated this policy.
The second concerns Michael Moore's Fahrenheit 9/11, a film critical of Bush since Planeattack in 2001. I have heard that Disney will not produce the film. Thereby they have proclaimed that they do not believe in freedom of speech. Disney wants to suppress free speech, evidently. I know they are a private corporation, but movies, for instance, are produced only by corporations, and so this denies people the right to see the movies they want. I watched Moore's Bowling for Columbine, about the gunhappiness of America, and found it to be one of the best films I have ever seen. I want to see Fahrenheit 9/11 as well. That does not mean that I necessarily agree with Moore; in fact, I suspect that there is some material of questionable validity in the film. But I still want to see the film itself, and regardless of the content, I expect it to be as good as Bowling for Columbine.
For these two reasons I am boycotting Disney until it stops sending out unwanted material and until it starts producing wanted material.
Torture in Iraq and other places caused by a word
The latest thing out of Iraq is the torture of Iraqi prisoners by US military servicepeople and by civilian contractors. This has really dented America's image. The Arabs are incensed by this. We harp all over the place about sexual harassment and sexual crime, and then the Army does it to prisoners in Iraq. This country still holds 500 prisoners or so without charges in Guantanamo, and there are other places where our country is possibly mistreating prisoners. What's the cause of this? I think I know. It's a word.
Oppression of others is in our history. First the Eastern Native Americans, who were forced to march out of their territory, causing many to die. Then came the Confederates. Their cause was flawed by their practice of slavery, but that still did not justify the brutality of Sherman's March, which in some cases wiped out entire towns. Then Sherman showed his brutality again to the Native Americans, this time to the Plains tribes of Lakota and Cheyenne during the late 19th century, culminating in the Battle of Wounded Knee. There were the My Lai massacre and numerous other incidents. What justifies most of these incidents? A word.
Most of us would be appalled at these acts. Killing is forbidden in our laws and carries a heavy penalty. Forcing sex on someone, robbing them, injuring or torturing them are all serious felonies carrying long prison sentences. No one would think of doing these things except where a certain word is used. What is that word? F--k? NO.
WAR.
Union forces justified their acts by saying that it is a war, the Civil War. If it is a war, you can go ahead and kill and torture the enemy or even commit sex crimes against them. We justify it as bravery, and keep score of how many enemy fighters we have shot down. Soldiers kill enemy, and then they are praised as heroes. Now sometimes war may be justified, but these may be precious few. Certainly the events of the past three years do not qualify.
The reason why these acts are rationalized by those who do them is that they say it is a war. We hear this all the time. This nation is at war. That isn't even the case. The hunt for Al Qaeda is a police manhunt, not a war. The US action in Iraq may have been a war at first, but since then it has been an occupation, not a war. Calling these a war is what I feel has caused these wanton acts which would not be tolerated in a peaceful American community. It is time to start acting more civilized. There are major problems out there that require cooperation. Most of all, it is time to stop saying "War on Terror" and War in Iraq". Stop saying "WAR".
The latest thing out of Iraq is the torture of Iraqi prisoners by US military servicepeople and by civilian contractors. This has really dented America's image. The Arabs are incensed by this. We harp all over the place about sexual harassment and sexual crime, and then the Army does it to prisoners in Iraq. This country still holds 500 prisoners or so without charges in Guantanamo, and there are other places where our country is possibly mistreating prisoners. What's the cause of this? I think I know. It's a word.
Oppression of others is in our history. First the Eastern Native Americans, who were forced to march out of their territory, causing many to die. Then came the Confederates. Their cause was flawed by their practice of slavery, but that still did not justify the brutality of Sherman's March, which in some cases wiped out entire towns. Then Sherman showed his brutality again to the Native Americans, this time to the Plains tribes of Lakota and Cheyenne during the late 19th century, culminating in the Battle of Wounded Knee. There were the My Lai massacre and numerous other incidents. What justifies most of these incidents? A word.
Most of us would be appalled at these acts. Killing is forbidden in our laws and carries a heavy penalty. Forcing sex on someone, robbing them, injuring or torturing them are all serious felonies carrying long prison sentences. No one would think of doing these things except where a certain word is used. What is that word? F--k? NO.
WAR.
Union forces justified their acts by saying that it is a war, the Civil War. If it is a war, you can go ahead and kill and torture the enemy or even commit sex crimes against them. We justify it as bravery, and keep score of how many enemy fighters we have shot down. Soldiers kill enemy, and then they are praised as heroes. Now sometimes war may be justified, but these may be precious few. Certainly the events of the past three years do not qualify.
The reason why these acts are rationalized by those who do them is that they say it is a war. We hear this all the time. This nation is at war. That isn't even the case. The hunt for Al Qaeda is a police manhunt, not a war. The US action in Iraq may have been a war at first, but since then it has been an occupation, not a war. Calling these a war is what I feel has caused these wanton acts which would not be tolerated in a peaceful American community. It is time to start acting more civilized. There are major problems out there that require cooperation. Most of all, it is time to stop saying "War on Terror" and War in Iraq". Stop saying "WAR".
2004/05/02
Virginia Beach
I went to a Toastmasters conference on Virginia Beach this weekend. I found it to be an interesting place. The colors of the buildings are colors that can't be named very easily; for example, is it yellow or green? Is it purple or pink? I call such colors Miami Vice colors, naming them after the television program. They were abundant at Virginia Beach. The beach there is interesting - one can run around in bare feet on it because for the most part there are no shells. There is a concretewalk (it is not a boardwalk since it is not made of boards) along the beaches separating them from a long line of high-rise hotels designed to give the maximum number of people a view of the ocean from their room.
There was a bunch of rambunctious teenagers or young adults there and they filled up the swimming pool. The most interesting things there were the signs that say spiral lightningstroke sharp !! with a cross over it indicating "no". In other words, no cursing or using foul language. To me it is a commentary on American culture, especially that of young people that signs are required that are like this. Other signs use words to say that no obscene language, sexual behavior and so forth is allowed on the streets, and also that violation of the law is prohibited. Huhh? Where in this large world of ours is it ever permitted? That would be a contradiction.
The conference featured two contests: a table topics contest and a 5-7 minute speech contest. In the table topics contest a topic is given. This year it is: What is your road like? That is an interesting question. I say in my case that it started straight, had to detour and led me to being lost in the woods. Others came up with their own answers, including some with a circuitous route (rhymes with "clout") and some with a straight route (rhymes with "boot") in which the person knew what he was going to do. The 5-7 minute speech (or International Speech) contest included one speaker decrying the human tendency to keep score. They did a wrong to us so we got to do it back to them. Give unto them as you would have them give unto you. They entertained us so we got to entertain them. The speaker debunked this notion and suggested that doing what you honestly want is better than trying to keep score. However, Toastmasters, with all of its point systems, including that for Distinguished Club, Distinguished District, and so forth, notoriously keeps score on everything. Maybe Toastmasters is not that healthy.
I say join Toastmasters, improve your speaking and leadership skills, and forget the points.
I went to a Toastmasters conference on Virginia Beach this weekend. I found it to be an interesting place. The colors of the buildings are colors that can't be named very easily; for example, is it yellow or green? Is it purple or pink? I call such colors Miami Vice colors, naming them after the television program. They were abundant at Virginia Beach. The beach there is interesting - one can run around in bare feet on it because for the most part there are no shells. There is a concretewalk (it is not a boardwalk since it is not made of boards) along the beaches separating them from a long line of high-rise hotels designed to give the maximum number of people a view of the ocean from their room.
There was a bunch of rambunctious teenagers or young adults there and they filled up the swimming pool. The most interesting things there were the signs that say spiral lightningstroke sharp !! with a cross over it indicating "no". In other words, no cursing or using foul language. To me it is a commentary on American culture, especially that of young people that signs are required that are like this. Other signs use words to say that no obscene language, sexual behavior and so forth is allowed on the streets, and also that violation of the law is prohibited. Huhh? Where in this large world of ours is it ever permitted? That would be a contradiction.
The conference featured two contests: a table topics contest and a 5-7 minute speech contest. In the table topics contest a topic is given. This year it is: What is your road like? That is an interesting question. I say in my case that it started straight, had to detour and led me to being lost in the woods. Others came up with their own answers, including some with a circuitous route (rhymes with "clout") and some with a straight route (rhymes with "boot") in which the person knew what he was going to do. The 5-7 minute speech (or International Speech) contest included one speaker decrying the human tendency to keep score. They did a wrong to us so we got to do it back to them. Give unto them as you would have them give unto you. They entertained us so we got to entertain them. The speaker debunked this notion and suggested that doing what you honestly want is better than trying to keep score. However, Toastmasters, with all of its point systems, including that for Distinguished Club, Distinguished District, and so forth, notoriously keeps score on everything. Maybe Toastmasters is not that healthy.
I say join Toastmasters, improve your speaking and leadership skills, and forget the points.
2004/04/27
Do Not Pledge to WCVE
One of the blessings of our lives is public radio, including PBS, NPR, and Marketplace. You can hear classical music any time of the day, but the news programs are what make public radio stand out. The Morning Edition and All Things Considered broadcast news in a dispassionate voice without all the hype of the standard media. They broadcast news of unusual interest, such as one man's unusual replies to telemarketers or why Google has been such a big success over the years. I listen to Morning Edition every morning when I go to work.
So you would think I would contribute to public radio? Not WCVE, 88.9 MHz. WCVE is the PBS and NPR affiliate in the Richmond, Virginia area. Like all these enterprises, WCVE has undertaken a pledge drive. However, they have done it in such a way as to prevent me from hearing what I want to hear on public radio. This week, when I tune in to WCVE in the morning, I get not Morning Edition but station people campaigning it up. I did not turn on public radio to hear talk about how much I should contribute to them, or especially the little ditties that Sue Wood has come up with about winning a thermos if you pledge. I turn it on to hear the news stories of NPR. The station has prevented me from hearing these stories clearly. I can still hear them, but I have to tune in to WHRV instead at 89.5, which broadcasts from the Tidewater region. I can hear it but it is staticky and occasionally a station at 89.7 interferes greatly. I think it is OK for WCVE to carry out a pledge drive, but one or two sentences between each segment is better than blotting out huge segments of news time.
Because of this I will not contribute or pledge to WCVE this year. I urge readers from the Richmond-Petersburg area not to contribute to WCVE until they stop campaigning it up on air time. So far the Tidewater stations WHRO and WHRV have not campaigned out any news that I wanted to hear. Therefore they will get my public radio contribution this year. I urge those people who want to contribute to public radio but who do not want to support WCVE's campaigning policy to contribute instead to WHRO and WHRV.
One of the blessings of our lives is public radio, including PBS, NPR, and Marketplace. You can hear classical music any time of the day, but the news programs are what make public radio stand out. The Morning Edition and All Things Considered broadcast news in a dispassionate voice without all the hype of the standard media. They broadcast news of unusual interest, such as one man's unusual replies to telemarketers or why Google has been such a big success over the years. I listen to Morning Edition every morning when I go to work.
So you would think I would contribute to public radio? Not WCVE, 88.9 MHz. WCVE is the PBS and NPR affiliate in the Richmond, Virginia area. Like all these enterprises, WCVE has undertaken a pledge drive. However, they have done it in such a way as to prevent me from hearing what I want to hear on public radio. This week, when I tune in to WCVE in the morning, I get not Morning Edition but station people campaigning it up. I did not turn on public radio to hear talk about how much I should contribute to them, or especially the little ditties that Sue Wood has come up with about winning a thermos if you pledge. I turn it on to hear the news stories of NPR. The station has prevented me from hearing these stories clearly. I can still hear them, but I have to tune in to WHRV instead at 89.5, which broadcasts from the Tidewater region. I can hear it but it is staticky and occasionally a station at 89.7 interferes greatly. I think it is OK for WCVE to carry out a pledge drive, but one or two sentences between each segment is better than blotting out huge segments of news time.
Because of this I will not contribute or pledge to WCVE this year. I urge readers from the Richmond-Petersburg area not to contribute to WCVE until they stop campaigning it up on air time. So far the Tidewater stations WHRO and WHRV have not campaigned out any news that I wanted to hear. Therefore they will get my public radio contribution this year. I urge those people who want to contribute to public radio but who do not want to support WCVE's campaigning policy to contribute instead to WHRO and WHRV.
2004/04/26
Osprey Nest at Kiptopeke
Last weekend I went to a convention of mathematicians in Salisbury, MD. I took the Chesapeake Bay Bridge Tunnel to get from the Tidewater area to the tip of the Eastern Shore. Shortly after this, I went to Kiptopeke State Park. This is on the western side of the Eastern Shore, and consists of a trail, a picnic area, and a place where one can fish and go boating. I went to the harbor there, and found a wide wooden piling jutting from the water, close to me on the dock. I saw a strange bird there and took a picture of it, although my best shot, of one standing on the piling, was ruined by a passing boat; the birds all flew away. But then one bird went upon a nest built of sticks; evidently a female setting on her eggs or brood. I got out my tripod and binoculars and took a picture through the binoculars. This came out beautifully, and when I got home and could study the bird book at some length, I found that the bird was an osprey. I could tell because of the black band on its head and its white breast. Ospreys once were made endangered by real estate developments encroaching on its habitats and by the use of the pesticide DDT. The DDT went up the food chain and concentrated in the ospreys. They are coming back, thanks to that ban, and are fairly common on the Delmarva Peninsula, but still it was a thrill to see one.
Last weekend I went to a convention of mathematicians in Salisbury, MD. I took the Chesapeake Bay Bridge Tunnel to get from the Tidewater area to the tip of the Eastern Shore. Shortly after this, I went to Kiptopeke State Park. This is on the western side of the Eastern Shore, and consists of a trail, a picnic area, and a place where one can fish and go boating. I went to the harbor there, and found a wide wooden piling jutting from the water, close to me on the dock. I saw a strange bird there and took a picture of it, although my best shot, of one standing on the piling, was ruined by a passing boat; the birds all flew away. But then one bird went upon a nest built of sticks; evidently a female setting on her eggs or brood. I got out my tripod and binoculars and took a picture through the binoculars. This came out beautifully, and when I got home and could study the bird book at some length, I found that the bird was an osprey. I could tell because of the black band on its head and its white breast. Ospreys once were made endangered by real estate developments encroaching on its habitats and by the use of the pesticide DDT. The DDT went up the food chain and concentrated in the ospreys. They are coming back, thanks to that ban, and are fairly common on the Delmarva Peninsula, but still it was a thrill to see one.
2004/04/18
Are animals any better?
Occasionally I hear people talk about domestic violence, the war in Iraq, Columbine, global warming, the overdependence of the world on petroleum, sexual abuse, and many other undesirable aspects of humanity and then say that the animals are much better, that they don't do these things and they just simply want to be. Apparently lower animals know how to behave. Mourning doves are so sweet when they come to our yard to feed on our feeder, with their cooing sound.
It may comfort one to think this way, but animals are no better. I have seen one morning dove chase another in my back yard. I have seen squirrels chase each other. They are not willing to share. If one is eating from a cob and another one approaches, the first one runs him off. One of our cats bullies another one off its favorite laying place. And today I saw a robin bathing in one of our birdbaths. A white-throated sparrow was trying to get a bath from the same bath, but when the sparrow entered the water, the robin pushed it off. So the sparrow went around behind the robin, and got into the water while the robin was looking the opposite way. He got a few little wadings of the water, and then both flew off shortly afterwards. He did not have to go to that trouble; there was another bath with no bird in it a few feet away.
In other words, not only do animals display selfish behavior, they are also scheming and conniving. We humans can, and do, better.
Occasionally I hear people talk about domestic violence, the war in Iraq, Columbine, global warming, the overdependence of the world on petroleum, sexual abuse, and many other undesirable aspects of humanity and then say that the animals are much better, that they don't do these things and they just simply want to be. Apparently lower animals know how to behave. Mourning doves are so sweet when they come to our yard to feed on our feeder, with their cooing sound.
It may comfort one to think this way, but animals are no better. I have seen one morning dove chase another in my back yard. I have seen squirrels chase each other. They are not willing to share. If one is eating from a cob and another one approaches, the first one runs him off. One of our cats bullies another one off its favorite laying place. And today I saw a robin bathing in one of our birdbaths. A white-throated sparrow was trying to get a bath from the same bath, but when the sparrow entered the water, the robin pushed it off. So the sparrow went around behind the robin, and got into the water while the robin was looking the opposite way. He got a few little wadings of the water, and then both flew off shortly afterwards. He did not have to go to that trouble; there was another bath with no bird in it a few feet away.
In other words, not only do animals display selfish behavior, they are also scheming and conniving. We humans can, and do, better.
2004/04/05
Jesus and Paul
I think this country is getting hung up on Jesus. There have been at least two television programs, a brand new movie, and a whole host of older movies about Jesus recently. There even was a tabloid story! ("The 13th Apostle was an Idiot!") The latest was a program hosted by Peter Jennings tonight on Jesus and Paul. I get the impression that Paul caused most of the problems with Christianity. Jesus said, “Turn the other cheek”. Paul said to turn back the heathen. Jesus sought to heal people. Paul said that unless one followed a life of Jesus, one will go to Hell, thereby turning God into the Devil, as if there is such a thing as evil, then certainly sending souls to Hell is evil. Eventually the corrupt Roman Empire took over the religion, and when it did so it promptly split in half. So this was a deal that went off the wrong foot the moment that Jesus hung from the cross. Peter Jennings did a good report, but we should be focusing on things like the ill effects of the War on Iraq, global warming, the upcoming oil shortage, and the Bush administration’s assault on civil liberties instead of what someone did or did not do about 2000 years ago.
I will go even further. This fixation on Jesus is a sign that our society is still in the Third Turning; that the Fourth Turning has not arrived yet. It is an example of the unraveling of our society.
I think this country is getting hung up on Jesus. There have been at least two television programs, a brand new movie, and a whole host of older movies about Jesus recently. There even was a tabloid story! ("The 13th Apostle was an Idiot!") The latest was a program hosted by Peter Jennings tonight on Jesus and Paul. I get the impression that Paul caused most of the problems with Christianity. Jesus said, “Turn the other cheek”. Paul said to turn back the heathen. Jesus sought to heal people. Paul said that unless one followed a life of Jesus, one will go to Hell, thereby turning God into the Devil, as if there is such a thing as evil, then certainly sending souls to Hell is evil. Eventually the corrupt Roman Empire took over the religion, and when it did so it promptly split in half. So this was a deal that went off the wrong foot the moment that Jesus hung from the cross. Peter Jennings did a good report, but we should be focusing on things like the ill effects of the War on Iraq, global warming, the upcoming oil shortage, and the Bush administration’s assault on civil liberties instead of what someone did or did not do about 2000 years ago.
I will go even further. This fixation on Jesus is a sign that our society is still in the Third Turning; that the Fourth Turning has not arrived yet. It is an example of the unraveling of our society.
SAP causes problems
I have heard of SAP, the arrangement on TVs and cable companies by which a TV show in English can be shown with a Spanish track. Today I found out about a misuse of this feature by a PBS station, WXXI in Rochester, New York, Channel 21, or 11 on a local cable system (might as well call it WXI). We tried to tune into the MacNeil-Lehrer report tonight, 2004 April 5 1900, but could not get it properly. The picture of MacNeil-Lehrer came out OK, but the sound was that of NPR, National Public Radio, instead! They did not even go well with each other. One was about Iraq, the other about biological viruses. This caused us to go to all sorts of measures to try to correct the problem. I called the station only to find out it was closed, but they give an option 6001, in which a recorded voice on the phone told how to correct the problem. Do this, and then do that, and then do this other rigmarole, and so forth. It was so voluminous and fast that it was useless; I could not digest it fast enough. So I went to their Web site and found a comment at the bottom of one page that said that if this happens, you may have SAP or MTS set. Actually they said that to get the NPR AM station, 1370 KHz, on the TV, set SAP or MTS. So I went to the TV and banged around. I found that pressing “settings” gives a menu item that said "disable SAP". So I did that. That corrected the problem.
The problem arose initially because on 2004 April 3 we could find absolutely no way of setting the VCR and TV clock to daylight saving time. Timer and date showed up in the menus, but no clock. In banging around for how to set the time, I must have accidentally set SAP.
So I found not one but two user-unfriendly features of both the cable system and PBS. PBS should have simply said, "turn off SAP". Not disable SAP. When I leave a room, do I disable the light, huhh? I could have found that. Further, these systems should allow the user to set DST. This is what users expect. If the system does it all for us (I call this McDonald’s Syndrome), then we will be searching endlessly for how to do it for ourselves, a waste of time. These systems need to be clearer about these items. They should allow you to set the time to what you want, and SAP should be restricted to its original purpose. Use it for Spanish, not for AM radio.
I have heard of SAP, the arrangement on TVs and cable companies by which a TV show in English can be shown with a Spanish track. Today I found out about a misuse of this feature by a PBS station, WXXI in Rochester, New York, Channel 21, or 11 on a local cable system (might as well call it WXI). We tried to tune into the MacNeil-Lehrer report tonight, 2004 April 5 1900, but could not get it properly. The picture of MacNeil-Lehrer came out OK, but the sound was that of NPR, National Public Radio, instead! They did not even go well with each other. One was about Iraq, the other about biological viruses. This caused us to go to all sorts of measures to try to correct the problem. I called the station only to find out it was closed, but they give an option 6001, in which a recorded voice on the phone told how to correct the problem. Do this, and then do that, and then do this other rigmarole, and so forth. It was so voluminous and fast that it was useless; I could not digest it fast enough. So I went to their Web site and found a comment at the bottom of one page that said that if this happens, you may have SAP or MTS set. Actually they said that to get the NPR AM station, 1370 KHz, on the TV, set SAP or MTS. So I went to the TV and banged around. I found that pressing “settings” gives a menu item that said "disable SAP". So I did that. That corrected the problem.
The problem arose initially because on 2004 April 3 we could find absolutely no way of setting the VCR and TV clock to daylight saving time. Timer and date showed up in the menus, but no clock. In banging around for how to set the time, I must have accidentally set SAP.
So I found not one but two user-unfriendly features of both the cable system and PBS. PBS should have simply said, "turn off SAP". Not disable SAP. When I leave a room, do I disable the light, huhh? I could have found that. Further, these systems should allow the user to set DST. This is what users expect. If the system does it all for us (I call this McDonald’s Syndrome), then we will be searching endlessly for how to do it for ourselves, a waste of time. These systems need to be clearer about these items. They should allow you to set the time to what you want, and SAP should be restricted to its original purpose. Use it for Spanish, not for AM radio.
Abilene Paradox
Something that has caught my interest recently is the Abilene Paradox. This is the story about a foursome who were taking it easy on a hot Texas afternoon when they got the idea of going to Abilene to eat, and each of them thought the others wanted it so they went along, but actually none of them did! This is a failure of communication. If you ask a woman to dance with you because you think you should and the woman accepts to please you even though she does not want to dance with you, then you are dancing with her to Abilene. If you agree to a suspense date with someone else at week even though you don’t think it can be made, and the other people agree so as not to seem odd even though they don’t think they can make it either, then the deadline will be in Abilene. It is a gross miscommunication. My idea so far has been to avoid dealing with people who take me to Abilene.
I suppose the way to deal with it is to double down with others and tell what you really want regardless. That is hard to do.
Something that has caught my interest recently is the Abilene Paradox. This is the story about a foursome who were taking it easy on a hot Texas afternoon when they got the idea of going to Abilene to eat, and each of them thought the others wanted it so they went along, but actually none of them did! This is a failure of communication. If you ask a woman to dance with you because you think you should and the woman accepts to please you even though she does not want to dance with you, then you are dancing with her to Abilene. If you agree to a suspense date with someone else at week even though you don’t think it can be made, and the other people agree so as not to seem odd even though they don’t think they can make it either, then the deadline will be in Abilene. It is a gross miscommunication. My idea so far has been to avoid dealing with people who take me to Abilene.
I suppose the way to deal with it is to double down with others and tell what you really want regardless. That is hard to do.
2004/04/01
Some interesting news stories
This has been some day! There has been some interesting news stories out, in locations I can't exactly remember. However, these stories are news because they seem amazing, but they are true. Or at least you can take a look at these and see what you think:
1. (2004 April 1 - AP) Asteroid to hit the Earth in 2008
Astronomers at Mt. Palomar Telescope have discovered an asteroid that is apparently going to collide with Earth in 2008. It is Asteroid 2004 EB, an Amor object, with a diameter somewhat over 3 miles. Initial observations and calculations show this object has a high carbon and possibly hydrocarbon content and is headed for a 300,000 miss of Earth in 2008. However, one of the astronomers saw the tell-tale lines of hydrocarbons very much like coal and petroleum on it, leading him to predict that the asteroid will strike Earth instead. He said, "If that asteroid has oil in it, then with gasoline prices and crude oil prices as high as they are, you can bet that nuclear explosions soon will drive that asteroid straight into the Earth."
2. (2004 April 1 - Reuters) Largest Prime Number Discovered
Mathematicians at Berkeley and Stanford, along with mathematicians in India, have discovered the largest prime number. It is described by a complicated formula in 327 pages and is 282,421,906 digits long. By combining a theorem describing ideals in K-theory with a bifurcation of a 23-dimensional manifold with a Haar measure, they isolated five classes of prime numbers and found an upper bound for each. The largest of the numbers is the Berkeley-Stanford-India number. Therefore, no prime numbers larger than this number will ever be found, and hence there are only a finite number of prime numbers, forming a set called the BSI set.
Dr. Yousef Clidinat of Southeastern University has some serious doubts about the proof, however, and he has resolved to find a larger prime number. His plan is to multiply all the prime numbers in the BSI set, about 200 million of them, and add 1. He has already calculated the result, but has had difficulty finding prime factors of the resulting number. He is confident of finding such a number soon, however, and insists that when he finds it, it will not be in the BSI set.
3. (2004 April 1 - Arrow News Service) The Best Government is a Dictatorship
One of the landmark events in human history has been the development of democratically elected governments. The idea that everyone by right has a voice in the government of a nation is now well established, and has resulted in countries in which people are free to live fulfilling lives. So it came as a shock to the Outbox Group think tank when its members discovered that, given reasonable assumptions, the best government is a dictatorship, wherein one person determines all the rules. The group made four rather reasonable assumptions, namely:
a. Given preferences from the citizens, there shall always be a societal decision. Otherwise, the government is indecisive.
b. If society decides on one alternative over another, then it shall decide on that one over the other if nothing happens to the preferences of the civilians except things that favor that one alternative over the other.
c. If society decides on one alternative over another, then it shall make that same decision even if how the individuals decide on other, irrelevant options is changed to something completely different.
d. For any two alternatives, there shall be a set of individual preferences that decide the first of these over the second. Else for all sets of preferences, society favors the second one, which means that this preference is imposed upon society from the outside, something rather undesirable.
The group, headed by Prof. Knuth Javelin, showed that these reasonable assumptions imply that there exists an individual such that what that individual says goes for all of society. In other words, this guy is a dictator.
The group is busy trying to find a flaw in the proof before all the democracies in the world find out and the dictators say, "I told you so."
4. (2004 April 1 - Bingby celebrity service) Michael Jackson is an extraterrestrial
Biologists in California have performed research on Michael Jackson's DNA in preparation for his child molestation case, and they have decided, based on what they found, that Michael Jackson is an extraterrestrial. "The genes and alleles in his DNA resemble absolutely nothing that is normally in human DNA.", said one of the researchers. He declined to comment on how he arrived on Earth, however, and it is unclear what the implications are for his case.
This has been some day! There has been some interesting news stories out, in locations I can't exactly remember. However, these stories are news because they seem amazing, but they are true. Or at least you can take a look at these and see what you think:
1. (2004 April 1 - AP) Asteroid to hit the Earth in 2008
Astronomers at Mt. Palomar Telescope have discovered an asteroid that is apparently going to collide with Earth in 2008. It is Asteroid 2004 EB, an Amor object, with a diameter somewhat over 3 miles. Initial observations and calculations show this object has a high carbon and possibly hydrocarbon content and is headed for a 300,000 miss of Earth in 2008. However, one of the astronomers saw the tell-tale lines of hydrocarbons very much like coal and petroleum on it, leading him to predict that the asteroid will strike Earth instead. He said, "If that asteroid has oil in it, then with gasoline prices and crude oil prices as high as they are, you can bet that nuclear explosions soon will drive that asteroid straight into the Earth."
2. (2004 April 1 - Reuters) Largest Prime Number Discovered
Mathematicians at Berkeley and Stanford, along with mathematicians in India, have discovered the largest prime number. It is described by a complicated formula in 327 pages and is 282,421,906 digits long. By combining a theorem describing ideals in K-theory with a bifurcation of a 23-dimensional manifold with a Haar measure, they isolated five classes of prime numbers and found an upper bound for each. The largest of the numbers is the Berkeley-Stanford-India number. Therefore, no prime numbers larger than this number will ever be found, and hence there are only a finite number of prime numbers, forming a set called the BSI set.
Dr. Yousef Clidinat of Southeastern University has some serious doubts about the proof, however, and he has resolved to find a larger prime number. His plan is to multiply all the prime numbers in the BSI set, about 200 million of them, and add 1. He has already calculated the result, but has had difficulty finding prime factors of the resulting number. He is confident of finding such a number soon, however, and insists that when he finds it, it will not be in the BSI set.
3. (2004 April 1 - Arrow News Service) The Best Government is a Dictatorship
One of the landmark events in human history has been the development of democratically elected governments. The idea that everyone by right has a voice in the government of a nation is now well established, and has resulted in countries in which people are free to live fulfilling lives. So it came as a shock to the Outbox Group think tank when its members discovered that, given reasonable assumptions, the best government is a dictatorship, wherein one person determines all the rules. The group made four rather reasonable assumptions, namely:
a. Given preferences from the citizens, there shall always be a societal decision. Otherwise, the government is indecisive.
b. If society decides on one alternative over another, then it shall decide on that one over the other if nothing happens to the preferences of the civilians except things that favor that one alternative over the other.
c. If society decides on one alternative over another, then it shall make that same decision even if how the individuals decide on other, irrelevant options is changed to something completely different.
d. For any two alternatives, there shall be a set of individual preferences that decide the first of these over the second. Else for all sets of preferences, society favors the second one, which means that this preference is imposed upon society from the outside, something rather undesirable.
The group, headed by Prof. Knuth Javelin, showed that these reasonable assumptions imply that there exists an individual such that what that individual says goes for all of society. In other words, this guy is a dictator.
The group is busy trying to find a flaw in the proof before all the democracies in the world find out and the dictators say, "I told you so."
4. (2004 April 1 - Bingby celebrity service) Michael Jackson is an extraterrestrial
Biologists in California have performed research on Michael Jackson's DNA in preparation for his child molestation case, and they have decided, based on what they found, that Michael Jackson is an extraterrestrial. "The genes and alleles in his DNA resemble absolutely nothing that is normally in human DNA.", said one of the researchers. He declined to comment on how he arrived on Earth, however, and it is unclear what the implications are for his case.
2004/03/30
Bush and Kerry have cleared the starting line
The Presidential campaign has started. Bush and Kerry are off and running, and so is Ralph Nader and some others. So how has it gone so far? In my opinion, both have made mistakes.
Bush accuses Kerry of being a tax-raising liberal. He chose a good time to say that, just before Independence Day and by that I mean the real Independence Day, namely April 15. Most of us have hit tax conniptions, so that is going to give him votes. For example, I found out that I could not contribute all that I wanted to into an IRA.
Bush accuses Kerry of asking for a hefty increase in the gasoline tax. He even has a Kerry gasoline calculator on his web site. The Bush camp needs to straighten out that site. You have to scroll to find the calculator. Most visitors won't bother, and will get the image of a President who promises but doesn't give. But it does compute how much more it will cost you. Easy come, easy go, and when it's gone, it's gone. No, Bush. This is a mistake. People may complain about gasoline prices, but there is a good reason why we need them now, namely the end of cheap oil, which may be as soon as 2008. We need something to urge people to conserve, and so that the proceeds from ever higher and higher prices of gasoline go not to the oil companies or Saudi Arabia, but to the US government, who can fund alternative fuels or help for those who need it, or even a big income tax cut. Kerry is right on this one and he needs to call for both an income tax cut and a gasoline tax raise.
Kerry says that Bush is doing nothing about gasoline prices. Yes he is. Only he is going about it wrong. He is trying to lower gasoline prices by drilling Alaska and by sending myriads of soldiers into Iraq.
So both candidates are stumbling from the starting line.
By the way, polls are showing an improvement for Bush, and Bush is claiming credit. No. Recent weeks have seen a deterioration for the President instead, if one is following Allan Lichtman's Keys to the White House. Key 9 (Scandal) and Key 8 (social unrest) are both shaking a bit more than they had been, increasing the probability that Bush will lose the keys and the election. Bush is still favored to win, but he was even more favored earlier when Kerry had an 8-point lead in the polls. The polls are fun to watch, but the don't make sense now.
The Presidential campaign has started. Bush and Kerry are off and running, and so is Ralph Nader and some others. So how has it gone so far? In my opinion, both have made mistakes.
Bush accuses Kerry of being a tax-raising liberal. He chose a good time to say that, just before Independence Day and by that I mean the real Independence Day, namely April 15. Most of us have hit tax conniptions, so that is going to give him votes. For example, I found out that I could not contribute all that I wanted to into an IRA.
Bush accuses Kerry of asking for a hefty increase in the gasoline tax. He even has a Kerry gasoline calculator on his web site. The Bush camp needs to straighten out that site. You have to scroll to find the calculator. Most visitors won't bother, and will get the image of a President who promises but doesn't give. But it does compute how much more it will cost you. Easy come, easy go, and when it's gone, it's gone. No, Bush. This is a mistake. People may complain about gasoline prices, but there is a good reason why we need them now, namely the end of cheap oil, which may be as soon as 2008. We need something to urge people to conserve, and so that the proceeds from ever higher and higher prices of gasoline go not to the oil companies or Saudi Arabia, but to the US government, who can fund alternative fuels or help for those who need it, or even a big income tax cut. Kerry is right on this one and he needs to call for both an income tax cut and a gasoline tax raise.
Kerry says that Bush is doing nothing about gasoline prices. Yes he is. Only he is going about it wrong. He is trying to lower gasoline prices by drilling Alaska and by sending myriads of soldiers into Iraq.
So both candidates are stumbling from the starting line.
By the way, polls are showing an improvement for Bush, and Bush is claiming credit. No. Recent weeks have seen a deterioration for the President instead, if one is following Allan Lichtman's Keys to the White House. Key 9 (Scandal) and Key 8 (social unrest) are both shaking a bit more than they had been, increasing the probability that Bush will lose the keys and the election. Bush is still favored to win, but he was even more favored earlier when Kerry had an 8-point lead in the polls. The polls are fun to watch, but the don't make sense now.
Ridiculousness in the Sky
I heard recently that they grounded, then canceled a flight, because a local clairvoyant said that something might happen to it. These charlatans can ply their trade all the time, as long as they don't interfere with me. But if I were on that flight, I would sue the clairvoyant, or more likely, the airline. I would have been inconvenienced, even missed an important appointment, because someone with a crackpot theory makes a pronouncement. I do not want any of my flights interrupted or held up because of someone's unscientific pronouncements.
I heard recently that they grounded, then canceled a flight, because a local clairvoyant said that something might happen to it. These charlatans can ply their trade all the time, as long as they don't interfere with me. But if I were on that flight, I would sue the clairvoyant, or more likely, the airline. I would have been inconvenienced, even missed an important appointment, because someone with a crackpot theory makes a pronouncement. I do not want any of my flights interrupted or held up because of someone's unscientific pronouncements.
2004/03/29
AM/PM Trouble
Sometimes a defect in the way we make, do, or say things can have positive effects; in fact, it can save lives. One such defect is AM and PM. Whoever made up this way of telling time was not trying to be user-friendly. One normally thinks of a day as a complete entity. Therefore, one expects 5 o'clock to represent a definite time. It does not. It represents two times: 5 AM and 5 PM. And this can cause confusion. Several times I have overslept because I set my alarm clock for PM instead of AM. Further, the way we tell time at 12 o'clock is really loony. We say the hour after 11 AM is 12 PM, even though this means the PM hours run 12, 1, 2, .. ., 11 instead of 1, 2, .. ., 12. And when it is 12 o'clock, then is it noon or midnight? For that reason, never say 12 o'clock or 12 AM or PM. Say noon or midnight. It is just too confusing. The military has recognized this so they threw out the system long ago and replaced it with 24-hour time in which the time from midnight to midnight ranges from 0000 to 2359, as numerical sense dictates.
But sometimes errors caused by AM/PM trouble can help; recently it has even saved lives. According to ABC News tonight, apparently the bombs in Trainattack in Spain were constructed out of briefcases or duffel bags with explosives, wires, and a cellular phone which was used as an alarm clock and a GPS device which was designed to tell the time, so that all bombs would explode at the same time. But one bomb did not explode, because its creator had AM/PM trouble. He had set it for 7:45 PM instead of 7:45 AM. Later on, well within 12 hours, investigators found it and traced it to the owner - an excellent lead in the case. That bomb not going off probably saved 20 lives. This was lucky.
I still say we will all be better off with military time. We should start junking the AM/PM system. That is not happening; I had a hard time finding an alarm clock that told 24-hour time. But I do believe that we will be better off. More police vigilance and better relations between nations are the way to prevent terrorist attacks and save lives, not reliance on an error.
Sometimes a defect in the way we make, do, or say things can have positive effects; in fact, it can save lives. One such defect is AM and PM. Whoever made up this way of telling time was not trying to be user-friendly. One normally thinks of a day as a complete entity. Therefore, one expects 5 o'clock to represent a definite time. It does not. It represents two times: 5 AM and 5 PM. And this can cause confusion. Several times I have overslept because I set my alarm clock for PM instead of AM. Further, the way we tell time at 12 o'clock is really loony. We say the hour after 11 AM is 12 PM, even though this means the PM hours run 12, 1, 2, .. ., 11 instead of 1, 2, .. ., 12. And when it is 12 o'clock, then is it noon or midnight? For that reason, never say 12 o'clock or 12 AM or PM. Say noon or midnight. It is just too confusing. The military has recognized this so they threw out the system long ago and replaced it with 24-hour time in which the time from midnight to midnight ranges from 0000 to 2359, as numerical sense dictates.
But sometimes errors caused by AM/PM trouble can help; recently it has even saved lives. According to ABC News tonight, apparently the bombs in Trainattack in Spain were constructed out of briefcases or duffel bags with explosives, wires, and a cellular phone which was used as an alarm clock and a GPS device which was designed to tell the time, so that all bombs would explode at the same time. But one bomb did not explode, because its creator had AM/PM trouble. He had set it for 7:45 PM instead of 7:45 AM. Later on, well within 12 hours, investigators found it and traced it to the owner - an excellent lead in the case. That bomb not going off probably saved 20 lives. This was lucky.
I still say we will all be better off with military time. We should start junking the AM/PM system. That is not happening; I had a hard time finding an alarm clock that told 24-hour time. But I do believe that we will be better off. More police vigilance and better relations between nations are the way to prevent terrorist attacks and save lives, not reliance on an error.
2004/03/24
P0108 Manifold Absolute Pressure High Input
Recently, as I was traveling on an interstate, I notice the scary words "Service Engine Soon" appear in yellow on my dashboard. I did not think I would reach my destination safely after that. But I did and got home safely again. In the morning I went to an auto parts store and asked what it meant. They got out a $400 gizmo and plugged it into a socket under the driver's side. After some hemming and hawing, it said "MAP/BARO High Input" and "P0108". I went home and looked it up on the Internet. It means "Manifold absolute pressure/Barometric pressure Voltage High Input". What in the heck does that mean? I read some more web sites and found out that it means something about the fuel injection system, which is governed by pressure in the engine. It also made mention of a "manifold absolute pressure sensor" or MAP sensor. Why was it making high voltage?
After the plugin, the light vanished! But it reappeared two days later when I turned into a parking lot. This time the van stalled, and it was hesitant upon restarting. The yellow light went on again. I went to an auto parts store and they tested it and it came up with the same message: P0108. The guy there told me that the MAP sensor was dead. Now how was that supposed to cause high input? I suppose it is supposed to control that input but it doesn't. I bought one but realized that a service place would have to install it. Two days later I took it in for repair and they installed my new MAP sensor, ran diagnostic tests, and cleaned up a fuel system munged up by improper fuel injection uncontrolled by the dead MAP sensor.
So that is apparently OK now. However, I think the entire process is rotten. We should not have to buy a $400 tool to plug into a socket when something goes wrong and read an incomprehensible error message. The message should state on the dash somewhere in clear language what has happened. I should get a message on my dash saying "MAP sensor voltage improper, may need replacement" instead of the cryptic and unhelpful "Service Engine Soon". But that is usual for the car industry, which I find the most disreputable of any group in this country. It is so bad, both car sales (blaring SUV ads at you at newstime on TV) and repair, that I refused to vote for Don Beyer for any office in Virginia, even though this meant voting for conservative Republicans. He was a car dealer. He was also a strike against Howard Dean, in my opinion. He was Dean's treasurer. That was cancelled out in part by Bobby Scott's support for Dean, but it still meant I was not completely for Dean. Something needs to be done about the car industry in this country.
Recently, as I was traveling on an interstate, I notice the scary words "Service Engine Soon" appear in yellow on my dashboard. I did not think I would reach my destination safely after that. But I did and got home safely again. In the morning I went to an auto parts store and asked what it meant. They got out a $400 gizmo and plugged it into a socket under the driver's side. After some hemming and hawing, it said "MAP/BARO High Input" and "P0108". I went home and looked it up on the Internet. It means "Manifold absolute pressure/Barometric pressure Voltage High Input". What in the heck does that mean? I read some more web sites and found out that it means something about the fuel injection system, which is governed by pressure in the engine. It also made mention of a "manifold absolute pressure sensor" or MAP sensor. Why was it making high voltage?
After the plugin, the light vanished! But it reappeared two days later when I turned into a parking lot. This time the van stalled, and it was hesitant upon restarting. The yellow light went on again. I went to an auto parts store and they tested it and it came up with the same message: P0108. The guy there told me that the MAP sensor was dead. Now how was that supposed to cause high input? I suppose it is supposed to control that input but it doesn't. I bought one but realized that a service place would have to install it. Two days later I took it in for repair and they installed my new MAP sensor, ran diagnostic tests, and cleaned up a fuel system munged up by improper fuel injection uncontrolled by the dead MAP sensor.
So that is apparently OK now. However, I think the entire process is rotten. We should not have to buy a $400 tool to plug into a socket when something goes wrong and read an incomprehensible error message. The message should state on the dash somewhere in clear language what has happened. I should get a message on my dash saying "MAP sensor voltage improper, may need replacement" instead of the cryptic and unhelpful "Service Engine Soon". But that is usual for the car industry, which I find the most disreputable of any group in this country. It is so bad, both car sales (blaring SUV ads at you at newstime on TV) and repair, that I refused to vote for Don Beyer for any office in Virginia, even though this meant voting for conservative Republicans. He was a car dealer. He was also a strike against Howard Dean, in my opinion. He was Dean's treasurer. That was cancelled out in part by Bobby Scott's support for Dean, but it still meant I was not completely for Dean. Something needs to be done about the car industry in this country.
Under God
The time has come. The case of Michael Newdow vs Elk Grove School is coming to the Supreme Court. Dr. Newdow sued to have the Pledge of Allegiance removed from the school that his daughter attended because the words "under God" were in it and hence it was a violation of the principle of separation of church and state. A lower court disagreed with him but the 9th Circuit Court of Appeals agreed, saying that a Pledge that contains "God" cannot be recited in a public school classroom.
I agree with this ruling. Bringing in God or Christ into the classroom make people who don't believe in God or Christianity feel like second class citizens. However, the entire Senate of the USA voted in favor of a resolution condemning this decision. This includes some of my favorite senators such as Dianne Feinstein, John Edwards, and John F. Kerry, Democratic (probably) candidate for President of the United States. I resolved not to vote for any incumbents in the Senate in 2002 and I didn't. The House passed a similar resolution, which was voted 440-3 or something. One of those three was Bobby Scott of my home state of Virginia. I now am likely to write him in every time I see an unopposed race here in Virginia.
But with such a herd of people insisting that we must hear "God" in the public classroom here in America, what hope is there of this ruling surviving the Supreme Court? Actually much better than I had expected. Scalia saw fit to blabbermouth about his wanting to force God into the classroom, and Newdow objected, whereupon Scalia had to recuse himself from the case.
That makes it 8 justices, minus a conservative one. Further, a 4-4 tie is a null decision, thus leaving standing the ruling of the 9th Circuit Court and forbidding "God" in pledges throughout America. So the pro undergod forces need a 5-3 margin, and I don't know if they will get it. All that is needed would be for the four justices that voted against the selection of Bush as President in 2000 to rule in favor of the 9th Circuit Court. So far they think this is not religious or a prayer. Well, it is not a prayer, but anything containing "God" is religious and needs to be kept out of the public classroom. I am hoping that the justices will see the light and not ride the wrong-way white horseman of God through the public schools.
The time has come. The case of Michael Newdow vs Elk Grove School is coming to the Supreme Court. Dr. Newdow sued to have the Pledge of Allegiance removed from the school that his daughter attended because the words "under God" were in it and hence it was a violation of the principle of separation of church and state. A lower court disagreed with him but the 9th Circuit Court of Appeals agreed, saying that a Pledge that contains "God" cannot be recited in a public school classroom.
I agree with this ruling. Bringing in God or Christ into the classroom make people who don't believe in God or Christianity feel like second class citizens. However, the entire Senate of the USA voted in favor of a resolution condemning this decision. This includes some of my favorite senators such as Dianne Feinstein, John Edwards, and John F. Kerry, Democratic (probably) candidate for President of the United States. I resolved not to vote for any incumbents in the Senate in 2002 and I didn't. The House passed a similar resolution, which was voted 440-3 or something. One of those three was Bobby Scott of my home state of Virginia. I now am likely to write him in every time I see an unopposed race here in Virginia.
But with such a herd of people insisting that we must hear "God" in the public classroom here in America, what hope is there of this ruling surviving the Supreme Court? Actually much better than I had expected. Scalia saw fit to blabbermouth about his wanting to force God into the classroom, and Newdow objected, whereupon Scalia had to recuse himself from the case.
That makes it 8 justices, minus a conservative one. Further, a 4-4 tie is a null decision, thus leaving standing the ruling of the 9th Circuit Court and forbidding "God" in pledges throughout America. So the pro undergod forces need a 5-3 margin, and I don't know if they will get it. All that is needed would be for the four justices that voted against the selection of Bush as President in 2000 to rule in favor of the 9th Circuit Court. So far they think this is not religious or a prayer. Well, it is not a prayer, but anything containing "God" is religious and needs to be kept out of the public classroom. I am hoping that the justices will see the light and not ride the wrong-way white horseman of God through the public schools.
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